The Index Desk

Prediction Market Indexes

An independent benchmark desk for prediction markets. 79 indexes, updated daily from live Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini prices. 15 experimental and 19 retired indexes sit further down and aren't part of that 79.

▲ 28 ▼ 34 of 70 rated27 elevated · 24 moderate · 24 calm of 75newest print 2026-09-051 stale
Readings may not describe todayWhy →
Uneven

1 of 4 readings are older still — the date above is the newest print on the desk, not the age of every row.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

ClockAll 79Daily 1Weekly 2Monthly 16Standing 60

The Board

newest print 2026-09-05 · 1 stale
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Showing 79 of 79 indexes

World Events
Financials
Sports

Score and change % are the daily print (newest print 2026-09-05 · 1 stale). Live basket is hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage — equal-notional and size-blind, not investable and not a performance claim.

Benchmark governed benchmarks — versioned methodology, index committee, published track record. Slate slates — curated combinations of real markets treated as one view, horizon-tagged and finite-lived, under lighter governance. Both are computed from live venue prices; only the governance differs, and the class is always shown.

Successor constructions · EXPERIMENTAL

15 worldviews · 12 printingshow →

Experimental and ungoverned. This is the number the published methodology beside it computes, on the committed close tape — it is not the desk’s published level, it enters no ledger, it strikes no divisor, and it is not continuous with the series it sits beside. Research-labeled, not portfolio-eligible (Designer §5.3).

Open-Weight AI Leadopen-weight-ai-lead
insufficient data2026-09-05

Succeeds AI Race, which prints 51.1 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

weight coverage κ = 93.5% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%

EXPERIMENTALinsufficient data · rung 2n 294 · κ 0.94/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Indexcrypto-greed-worldview
24.42026-09-05

Succeeds Crypto Greed, which prints 41.5 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 453 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Climate & Disaster Risk Indexclimate-risk-worldview
14.92026-09-05

Succeeds Climate Risk, which prints 30.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 73 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Political Turmoil Indexpolitical-turmoil-worldview
18.52026-09-05

Succeeds Political Turmoil, which prints 27.4 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 24 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Commodity Stress Indexcommodity-stress-worldview
26.62026-09-05

Succeeds Commodity Stress, which prints 24.4 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALdegraded · rung 4n 85 · κ 0.99/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Indexflashpoint-watch-worldview
29.82026-09-05

Succeeds Flashpoint Watch, which prints 31.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 40 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Global Easing Indexglobal-easing-worldview
8.82026-09-05

Succeeds Global Easing, which prints 26.7 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 39 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Awards Race Indexawards-race-worldview
25.42026-09-05

Succeeds Awards Race, which prints 42.5 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 521 · κ 0.98/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Soccer Heat Indexsoccer-heat-worldview
58.62026-09-05

Succeeds Soccer Heat, which prints 68.7 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 48 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Gridiron Futures Indexgridiron-futures-worldview
insufficient data2026-09-05

Succeeds Gridiron Futures, which prints 61.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

the missing-price count share π = 36.8% is above the 25.0% hard floor

EXPERIMENTALinsufficient data · rung 2n 1035 · κ 0.96/0.95Whitepaper →
Inverse Open-Weight AI Leadclosed-weight-ai-lead
insufficient data2026-09-05

Shares a thesis family with AI Race, which prints 51.1 and carries Open-Weight AI Lead as the construction printed beneath it. This reading is published on its own card rather than a second time under that row; the series are not continuous, and neither figure here is a restatement of the other.

weight coverage κ = 93.5% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%

EXPERIMENTALinsufficient data · rung 2n 294 · κ 0.94/0.95Whitepaper →
Inverse Conflict Escalation Riskconflict-deescalation-relief
83.02026-09-05

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 446 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
Conflict Escalation Riskconflict-escalation-risk
17.02026-09-05

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 446 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
Election Map Uncertaintyelection-map-uncertainty
56.52026-09-05

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (midterm-map) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 52 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Fed Path Indexfed-path-worldview
6.82026-09-05

The legacy Fed Path WFPI slate it was minted from is delisted, so it holds no row. The desk’s governed row for this subject is Fed Path WETFED, which prints 30.7. Three constructions of one subject; neither figure here is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 27 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
WET Impliedthe same contracts read in real units — basis points, straight off the ladders
Fed Sep 2026 +12.7bpsWETFED 30.7bps182dclose 2026-08-30Open desk →

What is a prediction market index?

A prediction market index turns many event contracts into one number. Instead of reading one market’s odds on one question, you read what a whole class of markets is pricing at once — conflict escalation, the path of Fed policy, control of Congress. W.E.T. publishes 79 named indexes on the board below, each computed daily from live prices across CFTC-regulated venues.

Every index carries a published methodology, a dated history and a construction log naming the markets it admitted and the ones it rejected. The composition is public, so any exposure to the view an index tracks is one you construct yourself, at whichever venue you already use. W.E.T. is not an exchange, broker or fund: it holds no contract, routes no order and settles nothing. These are readings of venue prices, free to quote with attribution.

A prediction market index vs. a single market

One contract answers one question and resolves on one date. That makes it precise and fragile: a single headline, a single wording dispute, a single thin book can move it for reasons that have nothing to do with the thing you actually wanted to track. An index spreads the same question across every market that prices some part of it, weights them, and publishes what the group says. It will not tell you whether one contract is mispriced — it tells you whether a whole view of the world is getting more or less likely.

How W.E.T. builds one

Each index starts from a falsifiable thesis and a published rule for which contracts belong to it: a category, keywords, a resolution window, a minimum number of constituents, a weighting scheme and a coverage floor. Contracts from different venues that price the same real-world event are mapped to one canonical event first, so the same question is never double-counted. When a day’s basket falls below its own coverage floor the index publishes a refusal rather than a number — a gap you can see is worth more than a figure you cannot check. The methodology for every index is published in full, and governance covers how a method may change.

Performance →Daily desk report →RSSMethodologyAPIMCP
Benchmark readings of market prices — data, not advice. Quote with attribution + the “as of” date.