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Perspectives on the future

WET Indexes

Each index brings together prediction markets around one view of the future. Explore the possibilities, then build a worldview you can follow.

Latest available publication 2026-11-05. Each index carries its own date.

Find your perspective

104 indexes · 10 topics

A preview of 104 indexes

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Across the world

See all 2 Across the world indexes
2 of 2 perspectives

Geopolitics

See all 2 Geopolitics indexes
  • WFLAGeopolitics

    Flashpoint Watch

    Follows the possibility of near-term conflict and escalation in the selected flashpoints.

    Published historyAug 1 — Sep 22
    Escalation reading33.30/100Higher = more support for this basket.
    Update overdue · 48 closes behind6 marketsAs of
    Explore
    Inside the index for Flashpoint Watch
  • WETGRIGeopolitics

    Geopolitical Risk

    Follows the possibility of adverse geopolitical outcomes, with more serious events carrying more weight.

    Published historySep 22 — Nov 5
    Geopolitical risk level118.81ptsHigher = more geopolitical risk priced.
    BenchmarkUpdate overdue · 4 closes behind119 marketsAs of
    Explore
    Inside the index for Geopolitical Risk
2 of 2 perspectives

Politics & elections

See all 10 Politics & elections indexes
4 of 10 perspectives

Culture

See all 4 Culture indexes
4 of 4 perspectives

Technology

See all 10 Technology indexes
4 of 10 perspectives

Economy & rates

See all 23 Economy & rates indexes
4 of 23 perspectives

Crypto

See all 1 Crypto indexes
  • WCGFCrypto

    Crypto Greed

    Tracks support for crypto upside targets, with downside outcomes read in the opposite direction.

    Published historyJul 27 — Sep 22
    Crypto upside support38.80/100Higher = more support for this basket.
    Update overdue · 48 closes behind25 marketsAs of
    Explore
    Inside the index for Crypto Greed
1 of 1 perspectives

Energy & commodities

See all 1 Energy & commodities indexes
  • WCOSEnergy & commodities

    Commodity Stress

    Tracks energy, metals and supply-route outcomes in a basket designed to follow commodity stress.

    Published historyJul 27 — Sep 22
    Commodity reading16.00/100Higher = more support for this basket.
    Update overdue · 48 closes behind11 marketsAs of
    Explore
    Inside the index for Commodity Stress
1 of 1 perspectives

Sports

See all 50 Sports indexes
4 of 50 perspectives

Climate & weather

See all 1 Climate & weather indexes
  • WCDRClimate & weather

    Climate Risk

    Tracks the selected weather and disaster outcomes, from major storms to earthquakes.

    Published historyJul 27 — Sep 22
    Weather risk reading30.90/100Higher = more support for this basket.
    Update overdue · 48 closes behind15 marketsAs of
    Explore
    Inside the index for Climate Risk
1 of 1 perspectives

Each reading uses its own scale and publication date. Compare an index with its own history; the numbers are not directly comparable across indexes. Intraday estimates appear inside the index and do not replace the published reading. Live baskets are hypothetical, based on mid prices before fees, spread and slippage, and are not investable.

Complete index directory 104 indexes

Every listed index, in one place. Search above to narrow the catalog.

Benchmark governed benchmarks — versioned methodology, index committee, published track record. Slate slates — curated combinations of real markets treated as one view, horizon-tagged and finite-lived, under lighter governance. Both are computed from live venue prices; only the governance differs, and the class is always shown.

Successor constructions · EXPERIMENTAL

15 worldviews · 15 printingshow →

Experimental and ungoverned. This is the number the published methodology beside it computes, on the committed close tape — it is not the desk’s published level, it enters no ledger, it strikes no divisor, and it is not continuous with the series it sits beside. Research-labeled, not portfolio-eligible (Designer §5.3).

Open-Weight AI Leadopen-weight-ai-lead
56.82026-09-22

Succeeds AI Race, which prints 52.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALlimited · rung 5n 268 · κ 0.97/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Indexcrypto-greed-worldview
27.22026-09-22

Succeeds Crypto Greed, which prints 38.8 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 412 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Climate & Disaster Risk Indexclimate-risk-worldview
14.12026-09-22

Succeeds Climate Risk, which prints 30.9 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 66 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Political Turmoil Indexpolitical-turmoil-worldview
26.02026-09-22

Succeeds Political Turmoil, which prints 24.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 21 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Commodity Stress Indexcommodity-stress-worldview
33.72026-09-22

Succeeds Commodity Stress, which prints 16.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 64 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Flashpoint Watch Indexflashpoint-watch-worldview
28.62026-09-22

Succeeds Flashpoint Watch, which prints 33.3 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 36 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Global Easing Indexglobal-easing-worldview
6.72026-09-22

Succeeds Global Easing, which prints 26.4 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 26 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Awards Race Indexawards-race-worldview
28.82026-09-22

Succeeds Awards Race, which prints 41.4 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 325 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Soccer Heat Indexsoccer-heat-worldview
65.42026-09-22

Succeeds Soccer Heat, which prints 97.0 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 28 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Gridiron Futures Indexgridiron-futures-worldview
12.42026-09-22

Succeeds Gridiron Futures, which prints 64.5 from its own basket construction. The two series are not continuous, and neither figure is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 495 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
Inverse Open-Weight AI Leadclosed-weight-ai-lead
43.22026-09-22

Shares a thesis family with AI Race, which prints 52.9 and carries Open-Weight AI Lead as the construction printed beneath it. This reading is published on its own card rather than a second time under that row; the series are not continuous, and neither figure here is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALlimited · rung 5n 268 · κ 0.97/0.95Whitepaper →
Inverse Conflict Escalation Riskconflict-deescalation-relief
86.22026-09-22

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 370 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
Conflict Escalation Riskconflict-escalation-risk
13.82026-09-22

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (conflict-escalation) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 370 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
Election Map Uncertaintyelection-map-uncertainty
57.22026-09-22

No row — the desk lists this worldview’s thesis family (midterm-map) but publishes no index under that name, so this reading is published as a construction rather than beneath a row.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 37 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
W.E.T. Fed Path Indexfed-path-worldview
4.92026-09-22

The legacy Fed Path WFPI slate it was minted from is delisted, so it holds no row. The desk’s governed row for this subject is Fed Path WETFED, which prints 57.7. Three constructions of one subject; neither figure here is a restatement of the other.

EXPERIMENTALcurrent · rung 6n 17 · κ 1.00/0.95Whitepaper →
WET Impliedthe same contracts read in real units — basis points, straight off the ladders
Fed Oct 2026 +12.3bpsWETFED 64.8bps182dclose 2026-09-21Open desk →

What is a prediction market index?

A prediction market index turns many event contracts into one number. Instead of reading one market’s odds on one question, you read what a whole class of markets is pricing at once — conflict escalation, the path of Fed policy, control of Congress. W.E.T. publishes 104 named indexes on the board below, each computed daily from live prices across CFTC-regulated venues.

Every index carries a published methodology, a dated history and a construction log naming the markets it admitted and the ones it rejected. The composition is public, so any exposure to the view an index tracks is one you construct yourself, at whichever venue you already use. W.E.T. is not an exchange, broker or fund: it holds no contract, routes no order and settles nothing. These are readings of venue prices, free to quote with attribution.

A prediction market index vs. a single market

One contract answers one question and resolves on one date. That makes it precise and fragile: a single headline, a single wording dispute, a single thin book can move it for reasons that have nothing to do with the thing you actually wanted to track. An index spreads the same question across every market that prices some part of it, weights them, and publishes what the group says. It will not tell you whether one contract is mispriced — it tells you whether a whole view of the world is getting more or less likely.

How W.E.T. builds one

Each index starts from a falsifiable thesis and a published rule for which contracts belong to it: a category, keywords, a resolution window, a minimum number of constituents, a weighting scheme and a coverage floor. Contracts from different venues that price the same real-world event are mapped to one canonical event first, so the same question is never double-counted. When a day’s basket falls below its own coverage floor the index publishes a refusal rather than a number — a gap you can see is worth more than a figure you cannot check. The methodology for every index is published in full, and governance covers how a method may change.

Performance →Daily desk report →RSSMethodologyAPIMCP
Benchmark readings of market prices — data, not advice. Quote with attribution + the “as of” date.