Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Openai Financials Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "openai" axis stops appearing in financials titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 14, severity frames 0 of 14, threshold frames 0 of 14), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 25. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11465, category-not-admitted 120, horizon-unknown 9, horizon-outside-window 34. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 34 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 9 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11465 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 4 of 25 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 4. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `polarity` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 21 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared polarity axis frames 0 of 21 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `polarity` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 86b5827c407d0390 · methodology 105dd45d60dc0115 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
21 financials markets carrying the "openai" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 988.30
- Since inception
- −1.17%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 100.0% of 17
- 1 day
- −0.30%
- 7 day
- −5.96%
- Markets held
- 17
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 17 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c7c−6.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 93c2.0¢ spread · 4.7k/13.0k within 5¢polymarketYES93c91c−1.6%13.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c5c−23.1%12.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c5c−18.2%11.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 78c1.0¢ spread · 34.0k/58.0k within 5¢polymarketYES78c93c+18.6%11.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 26cpolymarketYES26c13c−51.0%7.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c+4.5%6.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c7c−13.3%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c20c+85.7%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+1.7%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 19cpolymarketYES19c9c−52.6%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 26cpolymarketYES26c39c+48.1%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37cpolymarketYES37c60c+63.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 17cpolymarketYES17c18c+2.9%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c25c+92.3%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 34cpolymarketYES34c12c−64.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37cpolymarketYES37c41c+9.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 18d Range
- 3749
- Percentile
- 11th
- 10d Change
- −8.8
- Volatility
- 1.9 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 21
- Effective N
- 11.4
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 21 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
151 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.43/day, projection σ 2.5 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 21 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 1 holdingsHide the remaining 1 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 21 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WOPEN · at a glance
- What it is
- 21 financials markets carrying the "openai" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how openai is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Openai Financials Index 6mo (WOPEN) prints a WET Index Score of 36.9/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.