W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthly7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "interest" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 6, severity frames 0 of 6, threshold frames 0 of 6), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 45. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16443, category-not-admitted 7, horizon-outside-window 35. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 35 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16443 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 22 of 45 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 21, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `polarity` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 23 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared polarity axis frames 0 of 23 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `polarity` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 12aeb6be06d6dbce · methodology 4d575e8876144da2 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
23 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 10 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 10
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 2
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 52.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c96c+8.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c46 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c44c+52.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c38 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+3.8%13.5%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c15c−83.7%12.8%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c4c−56.0%8.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c23 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−81.5%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c69c−17.0%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c20c+169.9%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c83c+1457.5%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c12c+40.0%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 46.99
- Band
- Moderate
- 53d Range
- 4783
- Percentile
- 13th
- 9d Change
- −7.7
- Volatility
- 5.9 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 23
- Effective N
- 10.0
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 23 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
53d published · interactive53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.09/day, projection σ 7.0 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 23 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 3 holdingsHide the remaining 3 holdings
Where these markets are covered
1 of 23 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WINT2 · at a glance
- What it is
- 23 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how interest is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 2mo (WINT2) prints a WET Index Score of 53.0/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.