Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Midterm Elections Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "midterm" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 8, severity frames 0 of 8, threshold frames 1 of 8), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (8)
- 1 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 1 of 1 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 1.000000. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 1. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11576, category-not-admitted 7, horizon-unknown 11, horizon-outside-window 58. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 58 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 11 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11576 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 1 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 1 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 47b6bbc935623e7f · methodology 32f70e4bb256537d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
1 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 56.27 on 2026-09-03. It is not carried forward.
47 elections markets carrying the "midterm" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 997.13
- Since inception
- −0.29%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 93.3% of 45
- 1 day
- −0.20%
- 7 day
- +0.01%
- Markets held
- 45
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.1%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 45 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 95c0.2¢ spread · 49.3k/158.5k within 5¢polymarketYES95c97c+1.9%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 88c1.0¢ spread · 511.8k/259.2k within 5¢polymarketYES88c87c−1.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c14c+8.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50cpolymarketYES50c53c+6.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50c1.0¢ spread · 27.7k/91.1k within 5¢polymarketYES50c49c−2.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c0.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c4c−37.7%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 3c1.3¢ spread · 28.7k/2.7k within 5¢polymarketYES3c4c+14.1%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93cpolymarketYES93c22c−76.8%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c91c0.0%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−10.2%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−13.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93cpolymarketYES93c92c−1.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c−9.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c7c−9.6%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c24c+2.1%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c3c−34.6%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−21.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 27cpolymarketYES27c28c+3.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c3c−26.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c16c−17.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c12c0.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c87c−4.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c4c0.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+6.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+8.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c14c+12.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c23c+15.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?polymarket · YES · entry 22cpolymarketYES22c22c0.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−20.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 28cpolymarketYES28c19c−32.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c13c+14.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c3c+52.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c3c−50.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c15c+25.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 23cpolymarketYES23c25c+8.7%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c32c+36.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c7c+3.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 3 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 25c4 sessions stalekalshiYES25c25c+2.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 88c4 sessions stalekalshiYES88c88c−0.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 2 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 13c4 sessions stalekalshiYES13c14c+3.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c6c−4.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 1 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 1 constituent has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WMIDT · at a glance
- What it is
- 47 elections markets carrying the "midterm" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how midterm is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Midterm Elections Index 6mo (WMIDT) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.