W.E.T. Midterm Elections Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "midterm" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 8, severity frames 0 of 8, threshold frames 1 of 8), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 15143, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-unknown 116, horizon-outside-window 1270. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 1270 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 15143, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-unknown 116, horizon-outside-window 1270. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 1270 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 116 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 15143 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 47b6bbc935623e7f · methodology 32f70e4bb256537d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 65.06 on 2026-11-02. It is not carried forward.
7 elections markets carrying the "midterm" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 42 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 42
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 42
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 76.1%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 42 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 95c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c99c+3.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 13c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES13c6c−56.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES50c28c−42.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c3c−24.4%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 6c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c3c−52.6%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c2c−45.3%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c3c−97.2%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 91c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES91c98c+8.3%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c3c−48.0%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c3c−39.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c97c+4.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−69.7%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?polymarket · YES · entry 7c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c13c+73.3%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c2c−41.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c2c−54.6%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 27c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES27c30c+11.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c1c−76.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 20c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c2c−90.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?polymarket · YES · entry 12c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c7c−43.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 91c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES91c28c−69.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c3c−41.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c3c−15.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c3c+12.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c98c+2.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 13c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES13c14c+16.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?polymarket · YES · entry 20c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c16c−20.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?polymarket · YES · entry 22c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES22c24c+11.6%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c4c−24.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 28c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c46c+62.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c7c−37.5%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c3c+43.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?polymarket · YES · entry 6c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c2c−71.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c13c+8.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 23c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES23c16c−32.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 24c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c28c+19.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 7c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c4c−36.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 3 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 25c2 sessions stalekalshiYES25c9c−65.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 88c2 sessions stalekalshiYES88c8c−91.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 2 2026 midterms?kalshi · YES · entry 13c4 sessions stalekalshiYES13c13c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c97c+1.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c98c+0.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?polymarket · YES · entry 6c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c2c−66.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WMIDT · at a glance
- What it is
- 7 elections markets carrying the "midterm" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how midterm is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Midterm Elections Index 6mo (WMIDT) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.