Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
48 behind

48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WDEMO

W.E.T. Democratic Elections Index 2yr

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
37.48
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
13
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
40 of 40 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "democratic" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 1 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 63. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9225, horizon-unknown 1, horizon-outside-window 114.
  • universe: the declared 200–730d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 114 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 1 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9225 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 23 of 63 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 23. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 1 of 40 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 1 of 40 members (3%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-09-07, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec f3d5621437a9dd08 · methodology 2db794ec525518f8 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

37.48Stale · 48 closes behindLow & cooling, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

40 elections markets carrying the "democratic" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.

No level published for this basket

No return published — not one of this basket's 10 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-05. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.

Basket level · official print10 held · close 2026-11-05
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
1.48pts
Holdings marked
0.0% of 10
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
10
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
49.1%
Inception
2026-09-07
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
37

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 10 markets

held since 2026-09-07 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Democratic win the House race for SC-06?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale1.6¢ spread · 4.8k/301.8k within 5¢99c+4.3%↗
  • Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stale97c+6.6%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for MN-04?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale3.8¢ spread · 1.5k/51.7k within 5¢99c+3.0%↗
  • Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?kalshi · YES · entry 83c3 sessions stale93c+13.2%↗
  • Will Lauren Jewett be the Democratic nominee for LA-01?kalshi · YES · entry 10c2 sessions stale5.8¢ spread · 634/380 within 5¢7c−30.6%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?kalshi · YES · entry 62c2 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 2.1k/13.8k within 5¢76c+21.8%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for TX-07?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale3.3¢ spread · 723/35.7k within 5¢99c+4.9%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for CA-52?kalshi · YES · entry 96c3 sessions stale98c+2.4%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?kalshi · YES · entry 97c3 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 539/201.9k within 5¢98c+1.2%↗
  • Will Democratic win the House race for OR-06?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale3.0¢ spread · 417/105.1k within 5¢99c+3.5%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Low
13d Range
3655
Percentile
15th
8d Change
−4.0
Volatility
7.5 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
40
Effective N
16.6
Top Weight
15%
Venues
9 K · 31 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 4 sessions

120 hourly readings since 2026-10-19 · not the governed close
33.034.035.036.010-19 00:0010-28 02:0011-06 04:00
Latest
33.42
Since 2026-10-19
−1.48
Range
32.9–36.2
Readings
88+32 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

13d published · interactive

13 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 3 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 13d published · dashed = projected · no band published
020406080now36
Projected 14d
35.90
Change
−1.60
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 13 readings, slope -0.22/day, projection σ 10.6 pts/d widened for a 13-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
unclassified100% · 40

Constituents by weight

all 40 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 20 holdings

Where these markets are covered

2 of 40 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WDEMO · at a glance

What it is
40 elections markets carrying the "democratic" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how democratic is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 730 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Democratic Elections Index 2yr (WDEMO) prints a WET Index Score of 37.5/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.