W.E.T. AI Race Index
v2SlateAs of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Aug 31, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Slower → Accelerating)
How fast the prediction market is pricing near-term frontier-AI milestones.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1184.40
- Since inception
- +18.44%
- Cost to cross
- 1.15pts
- Holdings marked
- 96.4% of 27
- 1 day
- −1.14%
- 7 day
- +6.71%
- Markets held
- 27
- Settled
- 9
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 88.9% (8 of 9)
- Cash
- 54.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 32
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 27 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c2.0¢ spread · 285/3.7k within 5¢polymarketYES8c53c+599.3%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c3c−46.8%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 66c1.0¢ spread · 14.6k/24.1k within 5¢polymarketYES66c95c+44.3%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?polymarket · YES · entry 90c0.1¢ spread · 40.1k/105.3k within 5¢polymarketYES90c97c+8.3%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 56c5.0¢ spread · 775/1.1k within 5¢polymarketYES56c83c+46.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI — Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?gemini · YES · entry 19c1.0¢ spread · 200/200 within 5¢geminiYES19c11c−43.2%3.4%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 28c15.0¢ spread · 437/425 within 5¢polymarketYES28c17c−40.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 40c1.0¢ spread · 8.9k/38.3k within 5¢polymarketYES40c81c+101.3%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?polymarket · YES · entry 80c2.0¢ spread · 2.5k/1.7k within 5¢polymarketYES80c93c+17.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 2.3k/1.4k within 5¢polymarketYES10c9c−10.5%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 12.3k/10.4k within 5¢polymarketYES11c26c+131.8%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 15.0k/7.9k within 5¢polymarketYES11c6c−50.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 55cpolymarketYES55c24c−56.4%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Claude — Best AI at the end of 2026?gemini · YES · entry 68c1.0¢ spread · 970/1.6k within 5¢geminiYES68c59c−13.3%3.4%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 83c1.0¢ spread · 6.4k/6.2k within 5¢polymarketYES83c91c+9.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 29c2.0¢ spread · 6.0k/3.2k within 5¢polymarketYES29c14c−51.7%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c2.0¢ spread · 11.1k/944 within 5¢polymarketYES7c8c+23.1%2.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 72c1.0¢ spread · 441/811 within 5¢polymarketYES72c68c−5.6%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 14.7k/8.3k within 5¢polymarketYES9c14c+50.0%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic acquired before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 27.7k/543 within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−18.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13c2.5¢ spread · 4.1k/25.0k within 5¢polymarketYES13c95c+628.1%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 78c5.0¢ spread · 926/484 within 5¢polymarketYES78c84c+7.1%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c1.5¢ spread · 3.3k/3.0k within 5¢polymarketYES17c10c−38.3%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 18c2.0¢ spread · 23.7k/2.1k within 5¢polymarketYES18c7c−61.1%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c4c−65.0%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 35c2.7¢ spread · 2.3k/2.2k within 5¢polymarketYES35c66c+91.8%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30cpolymarketYES30c31c+3.4%1.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 51.10
- Band
- Moderate
- 34d Range
- 4182
- Percentile
- 68th
- 7d Change
- +0.3
- Volatility
- 5.5 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 26
- Effective N
- 9.7
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 24 P · 2 G
- Method
- v2
- Basket
- 26/36
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.9605
Daily close
34d published · interactive34 published close(s) — 0–100 (Slower → Accelerating). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 34d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 34 readings, slope +0.00/day, projection σ 6.4 pts/d widened for a 34-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 26 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How fast does AI change work?
Slower than the hypeReshapes work this decadeDoes compute stay scarce?
Compute gets cheap fastCompute stays the bottleneckIs AI displacement already here?
Hype outruns adoptionDisplacement is underway
WARI · at a glance
- What it is
- The accelerator gauge — how fast the market prices near-term AI breakthroughs.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing faster near-term AI progress. Lower = slower.
- Who cares
- Tech reporters, founders, and anyone tracking whether frontier-AI milestones are being pulled forward.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. AI Race Index (WARI) prints a WET Index Score of 51.1/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.