AI Race Index
WARIW.E.T. AI Race Index
How fast the prediction market is pricing near-term frontier-AI milestones.
Higher = markets pricing faster near-term AI progress. Lower = slower.
History · 1 day
Computed from 11 markets (effective 5.9) · 0 Kalshi / 11 Polymarket · $8.7M vol · top holding 25%
The desk read
Rose 7.6 to 75.7 (Elevated).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
99% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
77% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
92% · 12% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
87% · 12% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
1% · 10% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
94% · 7% wt · polymarket
WARI · at a glance
- What it is
- The accelerator gauge — how fast the market prices near-term AI breakthroughs.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing faster near-term AI progress. Lower = slower.
- Who cares
- Tech reporters, founders, and anyone tracking whether frontier-AI milestones are being pulled forward.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | polymarket | 99% | 25.0% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | polymarket | 77% | 25.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | polymarket | 92% | 11.7% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | polymarket | 87% | 11.7% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? | polymarket | 1% | 10.1% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? | polymarket | 94% | 6.5% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | polymarket | 10% | 4.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 84% | 4.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | polymarket | 62% | 0.4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | polymarket | 60% | 0.3% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | polymarket | 28% | 0.2% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. AI Race Index (WARI) reads 75.7/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. AI Race Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.