W.E.T. New England Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingnew-england-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 61.37 against this index’s 38.63. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name New England's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A New England club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (9)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 16. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4295, keyword-miss 12211, horizon-outside-window 8. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 8 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12211 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4295 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 6 of 16 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 3, price-below-floor 2, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 5 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. 5 of 5 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 10 prior member(s), of which 6 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 6 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.925429670 against a gauge basis of 0.386273829; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
- the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-11-05, 1 close(s) ago, and 1 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 10-member composition of 2026-11-05 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec f6676247cfc53d61 · methodology 68b3b3cc490cdc18 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
10 sports markets naming New England Patriots, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 968.14
- Since inception
- −3.19%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 53.8% of 13
- 1 day
- −0.58%
- 7 day
- −1.63%
- Markets held
- 13
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 13 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c5c−41.2%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East?polymarket · YES · entry 40cpolymarketYES40c11c−73.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the New England Patriots make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · YES · entry 64cpolymarketYES64c63c−0.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bills win the season series against the Patriots during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 33c16 sessions stalepolymarketYES33c51c+53.0%14.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Patriots win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 21c2 sessions stalepolymarketYES21c33c+54.8%11.0%Polymarket ↗
- Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c13c+42.2%9.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Patriots win the season series against the Jets during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 56c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c36c−37.2%7.3%Polymarket ↗
- 2027 Pro Football Champion — New Englandgemini · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stalegeminiYES5c3c−44.4%6.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- AFC Championship Winner — New Englandgemini · YES · entry 10c15 sessions stalegeminiYES10c6c−36.8%3.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Patriots win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 67cpolymarketYES67c61c−9.0%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will New England Patriots finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−19.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Patriots and Jets end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 33c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES33c41c+22.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Dolphins and Patriots end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 31cpolymarketYES31c29c−6.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1933.92 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.91 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 22d Range
- 2239
- Percentile
- 100th
- 9d Change
- +5.2
- Volatility
- 5.4 pts/d
- Streak
- 4d up
- Markets
- 10
- Effective N
- 7.2
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 10 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-11-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
22d published · interactive22 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 68 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 22d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 22 readings, slope +0.09/day, projection σ 6.8 pts/d widened for a 22-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 10 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWNEWE · at a glance
- What it is
- 10 sports markets naming New England Patriots, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how new-england-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. New England Football Index 6mo (WNEWE) prints a WET Index Score of 38.6/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.