WCOUN

W.E.T. Country Politics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
No reading published for 2026-11-14

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
0 of 0 admitted markets pricedκ 0.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "country" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 10, severity frames 4 of 10, threshold frames 0 of 10), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
  • no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
  • roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 16459, category-not-admitted 50, horizon-outside-window 21. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 21 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16459, category-not-admitted 50, horizon-outside-window 21.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 21 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 16459 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 86aec744989e61b0 · methodology 8a41247c8cc9bb38 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-11-14§2.6 rung 2

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding

Last published reading: 38.43 on 2026-11-01. It is not carried forward.

13 politics markets carrying the "country" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print10 held · close 2026-11-14
754.26−24.57%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
754.26
Since inception
−24.57%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
80.0% of 10
1 day
−1.01%
7 day
−18.87%
Markets held
10
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
66.3%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 10 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 12c1.4¢ spread · 32.0k/4.0k within 5¢3c−75.7%↗
  • Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c3c−21.1%↗
  • Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c1c−70.3%↗
  • Will Russia invade another country in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c0.1¢ spread · 147.6k/18.4k within 5¢2c−60.9%↗
  • Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 23c6 sessions stale11c−53.7%↗
  • European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 9c5c−40.6%↗
  • EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 5c2.8¢ spread · 21.8k/1.1k within 5¢3c−26.7%↗
  • Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 16c9.0¢ spread · 530/10 within 5¢17c+6.5%↗
  • Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c6 sessions stale8c−27.0%↗
  • Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 13c3c−73.5%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

WCOUN · at a glance

What it is
13 politics markets carrying the "country" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how country is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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“The W.E.T. Country Politics Index 6mo (WCOUN) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.