WINC3

W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
Governed close level
1542.6182
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
19.21
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
1.2455e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
17
latest 2026-09-08
The opposing reading

increase-economics-inside-two-months-inverse reads 80.79 against this index’s 19.21. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
11 of 11 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

46 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 13681 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 25. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 13631, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 24.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 24 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 13631 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 14 of 25 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 13, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 11 of 11 members and holding 0 of them NO. 11 of 11 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 11 prior member(s), of which 1 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 1 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.093610602 against a gauge basis of 0.192135835; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec defdc5317a347815 · methodology b9c26f8eec163b36 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

19.210.50 (2.54%)Very low & cooling, volatile

As of Sep 8, 2026 · last moved Sep 8, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low supportHigh support)

11 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print14 held · close 2026-09-08
1227.35+22.74%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
1227.35
Since inception
+22.74%
Cost to cross
Holdings marked
42.9% of 14
1 day
+5.65%
7 day
+12.09%
Markets held
14
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
Cash
40.7%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
18

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 14 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c9 sessions stale44c+52.6%
  • Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 78c7 sessions stale88c+13.5%
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c7 sessions stale4c−56.0%
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c12 sessions stale95c+6.8%
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 41c12 sessions stale43c+4.9%
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c16c+123.3%
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 9c12 sessions stale5c−44.4%
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?polymarket · YES · entry 14c12 sessions stale24c+67.9%
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 42c45c+7.1%
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c8c−47.0%
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c61c+1059.4%
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c10c+20.0%
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 32c12 sessions stale26c−17.5%
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 34c23c−32.8%

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+384.67index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2384.67 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.77 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
19.69
Band
Very low
17d Range
1947
Percentile
6th
9d Change
6.3
Volatility
8.1 pts/d
Streak
2d down
Markets
11
Effective N
8.8
Top Weight
15%
Venues
11 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

142 hourly readings since 2026-08-25 · not the governed close
20.025.030.035.040.008-25 00:0009-01 12:0009-08 23:00
Latest
18.95
Since 2026-08-25
21.23
Range
18.141.7
Readings
97+45 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

17d published · interactive

17 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 17d published · dashed = projected · no band published
010203040506070now13
Projected 14d
12.50
Change
6.70
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 17 readings, slope -0.97/day, projection σ 10.7 pts/d widened for a 17-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 11

Constituents by weight

all 11 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-08) · the basket below holds a different set

Where these markets are covered

5 of 11 constituents have a W.E.T. page

WINC3 · at a glance

What it is
11 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 8, 2026, the W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 2mo (WINC3) prints a WET Index Score of 19.2/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.