W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthlyincrease-economics-inside-two-months-inverse reads 80.79 against this index’s 19.21. Same markets, opposite side.
46 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 13681 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 25. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 13631, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 24. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 24 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 13631 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 14 of 25 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 13, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 11 of 11 members and holding 0 of them NO. 11 of 11 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 11 prior member(s), of which 1 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 1 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.093610602 against a gauge basis of 0.192135835; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec defdc5317a347815 · methodology b9c26f8eec163b36 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 8, 2026 · last moved Sep 8, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
11 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1227.35
- Since inception
- +22.74%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 42.9% of 14
- 1 day
- +5.65%
- 7 day
- +12.09%
- Markets held
- 14
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 40.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 18
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 14 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c44c+52.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 78c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES78c88c+13.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c4c−56.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c95c+6.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 41c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES41c43c+4.9%6.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c16c+123.3%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 9c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c5c−44.4%5.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?polymarket · YES · entry 14c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c24c+67.9%4.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 42cpolymarketYES42c45c+7.1%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15cpolymarketYES15c8c−47.0%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c61c+1059.4%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c10c+20.0%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?polymarket · YES · entry 32c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES32c26c−17.5%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 34cpolymarketYES34c23c−32.8%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2384.67 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.77 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- 19.69
- Band
- Very low
- 17d Range
- 1947
- Percentile
- 6th
- 9d Change
- −6.3
- Volatility
- 8.1 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 11
- Effective N
- 8.8
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 11 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
142 hourly readings since 2026-08-25 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
17d published · interactive17 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 17d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 17 readings, slope -0.97/day, projection σ 10.7 pts/d widened for a 17-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 11 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-08) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
5 of 11 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WINC3 · at a glance
- What it is
- 11 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 8, 2026, the W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 2mo (WINC3) prints a WET Index Score of 19.2/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.