Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Philadelphia Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingphiladelphia-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 73.01 against this index’s 26.99. Same markets, opposite side.
45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Philadelphia's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Philadelphia club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (11)
- 6 of 6 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.166667. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 6 constituents (cap·n = 0.9000 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 30. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 937, keyword-miss 10682, horizon-outside-window 4. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 4 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 10682 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 937 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 24 of 30 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 24. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 6 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 6 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 6 prior member(s), of which 0 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 0 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.000000000 against a gauge basis of 0.269916667; the divisor did not move, there being nothing to absorb in the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 4d4bccc4d6e9c55a · methodology 348bcef486df3622 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
6 sports markets naming Philadelphia Eagles, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1068.19
- Since inception
- +6.82%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 87.5% of 8
- 1 day
- +3.21%
- 7 day
- +3.45%
- Markets held
- 8
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 46.8%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 8 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c11c+37.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?polymarket · YES · entry 39c1.0¢ spread · 13.1k/2.5k within 5¢polymarketYES39c41c+3.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · YES · entry 63cpolymarketYES63c60c−4.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- NFC Championship Winner — Philadelphiagemini · YES · entry 10cgeminiYES10c10c0.0%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- 2027 Pro Football Champion — Philadelphiagemini · YES · entry 5cgeminiYES5c6c+22.2%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- NFC East Division Winner? — Philadelphiagemini · YES · entry 37cgeminiYES37c38c+1.4%14.4%Gemini Predictions ↗
- National League Champion — Philadelphiagemini · YES · entry 7c9 sessions stalegeminiYES7c10c+42.9%7.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Philadelphia Eagles finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c4c+44.0%3.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2025.46 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.98 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 17d Range
- 1927
- Percentile
- 100th
- 10d Change
- +3.1
- Volatility
- 1.5 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 6
- Effective N
- 6.0
- Top Weight
- 17%
- Venues
- 5 P · 1 G
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
150 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
17d published · interactive17 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 10 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 17d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 17 readings, slope +0.07/day, projection σ 1.9 pts/d widened for a 17-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 6 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setWPHIL · at a glance
- What it is
- 6 sports markets naming Philadelphia Eagles, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how philadelphia-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Philadelphia Football Index 6mo (WPHIL) prints a WET Index Score of 27.0/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.