W.E.T. Inverse Las Vegas Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
las-vegas-football-inside-six-months reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Las Vegas's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Las Vegas club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (12)
- 3 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 3 of 3 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.333333. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 3 constituents (cap·n = 0.4500 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 12. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4295, keyword-miss 12218, horizon-outside-window 5. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 5 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12218 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4295 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 9 of 12 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 5, below-min-volume 3, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 3 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 3 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 503cf9ca4b1b7b6a · methodology 3f3f7fcd7783d6eb · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
3 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 78.14 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.
The same markets naming Las Vegas Raiders, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1000.66
- Since inception
- +0.07%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 30.0% of 10
- 1 day
- −0.02%
- 7 day
- +0.06%
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- AFC Championship Winner — Las Vegasgemini · NO · entry 98c15 sessions stalegeminiNO98c97c−1.0%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c98c+1.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Texas Tech Red Raiders win the 2027 CFP National Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c99c+1.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Raiders and Chargers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 55c49 sessions stalepolymarketNO55c57c+4.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Chiefs win the season series against the Raiders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 43c11 sessions stalepolymarketNO43c36c−15.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Broncos win the season series against the Raiders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 56c18 sessions stalepolymarketNO56c62c+11.7%12.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Raiders win the season series against the Broncos during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 88c18 sessions stalepolymarketNO88c97c+11.1%6.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Las Vegas Raiders finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c95c−1.7%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Raiders win the season series against the Chiefs during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 86c16 sessions stalepolymarketNO86c67c−21.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Chiefs and Raiders end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 74c11 sessions stalepolymarketNO74c46c−37.9%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 3 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWLAS2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same markets naming Las Vegas Raiders, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how las-vegas-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Inverse Las Vegas Football Index 6mo (WLAS2) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.