W.E.T. Inv Washington Football 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingwashington-football-inside-six-months reads 20.08 against this index’s 79.92. Same markets, opposite side.
34 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
How this reading was constructed (8)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11372 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 24. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 635, keyword-miss 10651, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 61.
- universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 61 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 10651 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
- 635 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 16 of 24 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 15, price-below-floor 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 8 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 8 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-23, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec faa4ec946bb454ec · methodology 944ba65c6db724c2 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Aug 23, 2026 · last moved Aug 23, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same markets naming Washington Commanders, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- —
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 8
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-23
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 8 markets
held since 2026-08-23 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c98c0.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?polymarket · NO · entry 84cpolymarketNO84c84c0.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Commanders win the season series against the Cowboys during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 80cpolymarketNO80c80c0.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- NFC Championship Winner — Washingtongemini · NO · entry 98cgeminiNO98c98c0.0%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Cowboys win the season series against the Commanders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 71cpolymarketNO71c71c0.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cowboys and Commanders end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 49cpolymarketNO49c49c0.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- NFC East Division Winner? — Washingtongemini · NO · entry 88cgeminiNO88c88c0.0%7.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Parker Washington have 949.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 61cpolymarketNO61c61c0.0%2.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2000.00 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 2.10 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 1d Range
- building
- Percentile
- —
- 7d Change
- —
- Volatility
- —
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 8
- Effective N
- 7.1
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 6 P · 2 G
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 2 sessions
5 hourly readings since 2026-08-23 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Published history
projection builds with historyDesk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 8 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-08-23) · the basket below holds a different setWWAS2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same markets naming Washington Commanders, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how washington-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Aug 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Inv Washington Football 6mo (WWAS2) prints a WET Index Score of 79.9/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.