W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2yr
v1StandingExperimentalStanding7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "meeting" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 10, severity frames 0 of 10, threshold frames 10 of 10), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 157. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16016, category-not-admitted 58, horizon-outside-window 299. - universe: the declared 200–730d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 299 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16016 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 139 of 157 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 115, spread-too-wide 14, price-below-floor 10. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 17 of 18 members and holding 5 of them NO. 12 of 17 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 38da2abe5d5518c6 · methodology 7e4fe1c1777691e9 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
18 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1252.97
- Since inception
- +25.30%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 83.7% of 49
- 1 day
- +0.79%
- 7 day
- −5.66%
- Markets held
- 49
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 39.9%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 49 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 79c2 sessions stalekalshiYES79c77c−2.5%11.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4ckalshiYES4c4c0.0%4.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 97ckalshiNO97c99c+2.6%4.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 88c2.0¢ spread · 26.1k/956 within 5¢kalshiNO88c97c+10.9%4.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 66ckalshiYES66c36c−45.0%3.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4ckalshiYES4c4c−12.5%3.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 92ckalshiYES92c98c+6.6%3.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c60c+526.3%3.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c22c+377.8%3.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 90c1.0¢ spread · 44/706 within 5¢kalshiNO90c99c+9.4%2.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 97ckalshiNO97c97c0.0%2.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c1c−86.7%2.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91ckalshiYES91c98c+7.7%2.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 7ckalshiYES7c79c+1115.4%2.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c96c−2.1%2.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c1c−86.7%2.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 94c2.0¢ spread · 11.3k/864 within 5¢kalshiNO94c94c0.0%2.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+1.0%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 93ckalshiNO93c93c+0.5%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 92ckalshiYES92c98c+6.6%1.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c97c+3.7%1.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c96c+1.6%1.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 96ckalshiYES96c97c+1.0%1.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 93ckalshiNO93c99c+7.0%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 61ckalshiYES61c62c+2.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53ckalshiYES53c96c+80.2%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+4.8%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 96ckalshiYES96c98c+2.6%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 94ckalshiNO94c99c+5.9%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 97ckalshiNO97c95c−2.1%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 96ckalshiYES96c98c+2.6%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 63ckalshiYES63c61c−4.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 97ckalshiYES97c97c+0.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 97ckalshiYES97c97c+0.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 14ckalshiYES14c1c−92.9%1.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4ckalshiYES4c1c−71.4%1.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their June 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 12ckalshiYES12c26c+112.5%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 88c1.0¢ spread · 234/539 within 5¢kalshiNO88c90c+2.3%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 6ckalshiYES6c1c−81.8%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 61ckalshiYES61c81c+33.9%1.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2028 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95ckalshiNO95c89c−5.8%0.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92ckalshiNO92c99c+8.2%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53ckalshiYES53c94c+79.0%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2028 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 56ckalshiYES56c61c+8.0%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 9ckalshiYES9c4c−58.8%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92ckalshiNO92c98c+6.6%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c7c−35.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 11ckalshiYES11c5c−52.4%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 47.12
- Band
- Moderate
- 47d Range
- 3264
- Percentile
- 55th
- 9d Change
- −2.7
- Volatility
- 7.5 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 18
- Effective N
- 11.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 16 K · 2 P
- Method
- v1
Intraday · indicative
97 hourly readings · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
47d published · interactive47 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 46 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 47d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.05/day, projection σ 8.6 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 18 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWMEE3 · at a glance
- What it is
- 18 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how meeting is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 730 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2yr (WMEE3) prints a WET Index Score of 49.8/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.