BenchmarkWETGRI

W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index

v2.0

109.62lvl▼ 0.84

A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.

index level · base 100 (moving to 1,000 — consultation closes 2026-08-27) · WET Close 2026-11-14 · 92 days settled · every constituent priced from one venue

Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →

WET Close · official print0/110 marked · close 2026-11-14

109.62−0.84ptson the day · divisor chained

settled under published methodology · checksum-chained

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

WET Close: 109.62
Basis: divisor chained
Since inception: +5.80%
1 day: −0.84pts
Constituents: 110
Settled: 0
Single venue: 110
Provisional: 0
Inception: 2026-08-06
Weighting: capped liquidity severity
Marks: Consolidated mid
Days tracked: 92

Index level, divisor-chained off the severity-weighted risk gauge R = 100·Σwᵢsᵢpᵢ/Σwᵢsᵢ and rebased to 100 at inception. Composition changes move the divisor, never the printed level — so a change in this number is a change in price. It is not a basket total return and carries no notional.

Capped liquidity weights (cap 15%), scaled by the severity multiplier. Severity enters both numerator and denominator, so the share of the index a holding carries is wᵢsᵢ/Σwⱼsⱼ rather than wᵢ.

A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.

Holdings · 110 markets

the settled composition · live marks are in the level above

MarketVenueCloseNowΔShare

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 8%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 1282.1k/312.5k within 5¢polymarket8%——18.3%Polymarket ↗
israel x iran ceasefire continues — 6-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 32%not yet markedpolymarket32%——12.8%Polymarket ↗
china invade taiwan — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——10.4%Polymarket ↗
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 93%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 156.5k/132.7k within 5¢polymarket93%——9.2%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine energy ceasefire agreement — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 78%not yet markedpolymarket78%——7.7%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine ceasefire — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 85%not yet markedpolymarket85%——6.9%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 14-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 77%not yet markedpolymarket77%——6.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet marked0.1¢ spread · 2708.8k/54.5k within 5¢polymarket2%——4.7%Polymarket ↗
houthis capture taiz city — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 20%not yet markedpolymarket20%——3.7%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet marked1.2¢ spread · 185.6k/36.1k within 5¢polymarket2%——3.4%Polymarket ↗
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?invpolymarket · close 79%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 42.2k/30.3k within 5¢polymarket79%——2.8%Polymarket ↗
ukraine signs peace deal with russia — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will Trump and Putin not meet?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——2.5%Polymarket ↗
zelenskyy and putin not meet — 2-leg term structure (before)polymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
us x iran effective ceasefire — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?polymarket · close 9%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 47.9k/8.8k within 5¢polymarket9%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?polymarket · close 13%not yet markedpolymarket13%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked1.4¢ spread · 32.0k/4.0k within 5¢polymarket3%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine prisoner exchange — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
russia military action against eu country — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will US annex any territory in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet marked4.7¢ spread · 70.6k/3.1k within 5¢polymarket6%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
us x yemen ceasefire continues — 2-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 17%not yet markedpolymarket17%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Mexico by December 31?polymarket · close 2%not yet marked0.1¢ spread · 341.1k/2.6k within 5¢polymarket2%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 97%not yet markedpolymarket97%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 71%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 2.3k/4.3k within 5¢polymarket71%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 97%not yet markedpolymarket97%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
houthi x saudi arabia effective ceasefire — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?polymarket · close 8%not yet marked2.0¢ spread · 21.6k/821 within 5¢polymarket8%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 98%not yet markedpolymarket98%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 21.6k/1.2k within 5¢polymarket95%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
israel military action against greater beirut — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 24%not yet markedpolymarket24%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 93%not yet markedpolymarket93%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 86%not yet markedpolymarket86%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 96%not yet markedpolymarket96%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Colombia by December 31?polymarket · close 17%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 13.3k/2.9k within 5¢polymarket17%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
israel military action against syria — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——0.0%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 110 constituents by weight.

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