W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index
v2.0A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.
WET Close 2026-08-12 · 7 days settled · 87 priced from one venue
Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →
settled under published methodology · checksum-chained
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Level
- 109.67
- Basis
- divisor chained
- Since inception
- +5.85%
- 1 day
- −0.98pts
- Constituents
- 87
- Marked
- 0/87
- Settled
- 0
- Single venue
- 87
- Provisional
- 0
- Inception
- 2026-08-06
- Weighting
- capped liquidity severity
- Marks
- Consolidated mid
- Days tracked
- 7
Index level, divisor-chained off the severity-weighted risk gauge R = 100·Σwᵢsᵢpᵢ/Σwᵢsᵢ and rebased to 100 at inception. Composition changes move the divisor, never the printed level — so a change in this number is a change in price. It is not a basket total return and carries no notional.
Capped liquidity weights (cap 15%), scaled by the severity multiplier. Severity enters both numerator and denominator, so the share of the index a holding carries is wᵢsᵢ/Σwⱼsⱼ rather than wᵢ.
Live level: Live pricing covers 0 of 87 constituents, below the 67% floor. A level computed on a basket missing a third of its weight is not the same basket, so none is published — the settled close of 109.67 stands.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.
Holdings · 87 markets
the settled composition · live marks are in the level above- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——17.2%Polymarket ↗
- china invade taiwan — 3-leg term structure (by end of)polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——17.2%Polymarket ↗
- us iran final nuclear deal — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——13.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——8.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——5.0%Polymarket ↗
- israel x iran ceasefire continues — 4-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 33%not yet markedpolymarket33%——3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 80%not yet markedpolymarket80%——3.6%Polymarket ↗
- russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 86%not yet markedpolymarket86%——3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%——3.0%Polymarket ↗
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?polymarket · close 20%not yet markedpolymarket20%——2.3%Polymarket ↗
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 82%not yet markedpolymarket82%——2.0%Polymarket ↗
- israeli forces withdraw from beyond litani river — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?polymarket · close 8%not yet markedpolymarket8%——1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?polymarket · close 55%not yet markedpolymarket55%——1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?invpolymarket · close 85%not yet markedpolymarket85%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?invpolymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?polymarket · close 65%not yet markedpolymarket65%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?polymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?invpolymarket · close 87%not yet markedpolymarket87%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?polymarket · close 12%not yet markedpolymarket12%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
- russia ukraine peace talks — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 61%not yet markedpolymarket61%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
- iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site — 3-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?polymarket · close 16%not yet markedpolymarket16%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- us x china tariff agreement — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 45%not yet markedpolymarket45%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?polymarket · close 12%not yet markedpolymarket12%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 97%not yet markedpolymarket97%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?polymarket · close 25%not yet markedpolymarket25%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 93%not yet markedpolymarket93%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 14%not yet markedpolymarket14%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 86%not yet markedpolymarket86%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?polymarket · close 68%not yet markedpolymarket68%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 85%not yet markedpolymarket85%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will US annex any territory in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 82%not yet markedpolymarket82%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 80%not yet markedpolymarket80%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 87%not yet markedpolymarket87%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- there saudi arabian military action against yemen — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 56%not yet markedpolymarket56%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 87%not yet markedpolymarket87%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 11%not yet markedpolymarket11%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 93%not yet markedpolymarket93%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 87%not yet markedpolymarket87%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 43%not yet markedpolymarket43%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?invpolymarket · close 62%not yet markedpolymarket62%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 96%not yet markedpolymarket96%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?polymarket · close 14%not yet markedpolymarket14%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?polymarket · close 36%not yet markedpolymarket36%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 80%not yet markedpolymarket80%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- u s x russia nuclear deal — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 91%not yet markedpolymarket91%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 81%not yet markedpolymarket81%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 36%not yet markedpolymarket36%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
- Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——0.0%Polymarket ↗
A governed benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — free to quote with attribution and the “as of” date. Not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. Any basket shown above is hypothetical, marked at mid, before fees, spread and slippage.