BenchmarkWETGRI

W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index

v2.0

99.78lvllast move 2026-09-22 · no direction is stated from a stale reading

A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.

index level · base 100 (moving to 1,000 — consultation closes 2026-08-27) · WET Close 2026-09-22 · 46 days settled · every constituent priced from one venue

Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →

WET Close · official print0/99 marked · close 2026-09-22

99.78−5.62ptson the day · divisor chained

settled under published methodology · checksum-chained

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

WET Close: 99.78
Basis: divisor chained
Since inception: −3.70%
1 day: −5.62pts
Constituents: 99
Settled: 0
Single venue: 99
Provisional: 0
Inception: 2026-08-06
Weighting: capped liquidity severity
Marks: Consolidated mid
Days tracked: 46

Index level, divisor-chained off the severity-weighted risk gauge R = 100·Σwᵢsᵢpᵢ/Σwᵢsᵢ and rebased to 100 at inception. Composition changes move the divisor, never the printed level — so a change in this number is a change in price. It is not a basket total return and carries no notional.

Capped liquidity weights (cap 15%), scaled by the severity multiplier. Severity enters both numerator and denominator, so the share of the index a holding carries is wᵢsᵢ/Σwⱼsⱼ rather than wᵢ.

A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.

Holdings · 99 markets

the settled composition · live marks are in the level above

MarketVenueCloseNowΔShare

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 730.7k/682.8k within 5¢polymarket14%——18.2%Polymarket ↗
china invade taiwan — 3-leg term structure (by end of)polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——18.2%Polymarket ↗
us x iran ceasefire continues — 5-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 45%not yet markedpolymarket45%——12.7%Polymarket ↗
israel x iran ceasefire continues — 4-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 26%not yet markedpolymarket26%——12.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 203.4k/92.5k within 5¢polymarket7%——8.3%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 15-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 81%not yet markedpolymarket81%——5.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked0.7¢ spread · 223.9k/30.5k within 5¢polymarket3%——3.1%Polymarket ↗
russia military action against eu country — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 17%not yet markedpolymarket17%——2.2%Polymarket ↗
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 210.9k/20.7k within 5¢polymarket94%——1.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——1.7%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 45.2k/20.5k within 5¢polymarket14%——1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?polymarket · close 8%not yet markedpolymarket8%——1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——1.1%Polymarket ↗
Iran nuclear test before 2027?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——1.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——1.0%Polymarket ↗
israeli forces withdraw from beyond litani river — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——1.0%Polymarket ↗
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 12%not yet markedpolymarket12%——0.9%Polymarket ↗
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?polymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
russia ukraine peace talks — 5-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 34%not yet markedpolymarket34%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
israel military action against yemen — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 14%not yet markedpolymarket14%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
us canada diplomatic agreement lower tariffs — 3-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 40%not yet markedpolymarket40%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
israel military action against greater beirut — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 16%not yet markedpolymarket16%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Trump and Putin not meet?polymarket · close 25%not yet markedpolymarket25%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
us x yemen ceasefire continues — 3-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 17%not yet markedpolymarket17%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
european country take military action on iran — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 98%not yet markedpolymarket98%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?invpolymarket · close 11%not yet markedpolymarket11%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 87%not yet markedpolymarket87%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will US annex any territory in 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
houthi military action against mecca — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?polymarket · close 81%not yet markedpolymarket81%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.1%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 99 constituents by weight.

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