BenchmarkWETGRI

W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index

v2.0

110.06lvl▼ 0.07

A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.

index level · base 100 (moving to 1,000 — consultation closes 2026-08-27) · WET Close 2026-09-09 · 33 days settled · every constituent priced from one venue

Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →

WET Close · official print0/100 marked · close 2026-09-09

110.06−0.07ptson the day · divisor chained

settled under published methodology · checksum-chained

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

WET Close: 110.06
Basis: divisor chained
Since inception: +6.23%
1 day: −0.07pts
Constituents: 100
Settled: 0
Single venue: 100
Provisional: 0
Inception: 2026-08-06
Weighting: capped liquidity severity
Marks: Consolidated mid
Days tracked: 33

Index level, divisor-chained off the severity-weighted risk gauge R = 100·Σwᵢsᵢpᵢ/Σwᵢsᵢ and rebased to 100 at inception. Composition changes move the divisor, never the printed level — so a change in this number is a change in price. It is not a basket total return and carries no notional.

Capped liquidity weights (cap 15%), scaled by the severity multiplier. Severity enters both numerator and denominator, so the share of the index a holding carries is wᵢsᵢ/Σwⱼsⱼ rather than wᵢ.

A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.

Holdings · 100 markets

the settled composition · live marks are in the level above

MarketVenueCloseNowΔShare

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 1791.9k/597.0k within 5¢polymarket14%——17.7%Polymarket ↗
china invade taiwan — 3-leg term structure (by end of)polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——17.7%Polymarket ↗
us iran final nuclear deal — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——10.7%Polymarket ↗
us x iran diplomatic meeting — 4-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 71%not yet markedpolymarket71%——6.4%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine ceasefire — 2-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——6.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 266.6k/54.2k within 5¢polymarket7%——4.7%Polymarket ↗
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 11-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——4.3%Polymarket ↗
israel x iran ceasefire continues — 4-leg term structure (through)invpolymarket · close 31%not yet markedpolymarket31%——3.7%Polymarket ↗
ukraine signs peace deal with russia — 2-leg term structure (before)invpolymarket · close 92%not yet markedpolymarket92%——3.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet marked0.2¢ spread · 132.7k/30.1k within 5¢polymarket2%——2.9%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——2.8%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Cuba by December 31?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 43.6k/18.6k within 5¢polymarket14%——1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——1.3%Polymarket ↗
Iran nuclear test before 2027?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 95%not yet markedpolymarket95%——1.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 96%not yet markedpolymarket96%——1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 98%not yet markedpolymarket98%——0.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.8%Polymarket ↗
israel x lebanon effective ceasefire — 3-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 91%not yet markedpolymarket91%——0.7%Polymarket ↗
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?polymarket · close 93%not yet markedpolymarket93%——0.7%Polymarket ↗
russia ukraine peace talks — 5-leg term structure (by)invpolymarket · close 28%not yet markedpolymarket28%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%——0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site — 2-leg term structure (by)polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%——0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?polymarket · close 9%not yet markedpolymarket9%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 77%not yet markedpolymarket77%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 90%not yet markedpolymarket90%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 91%not yet markedpolymarket91%——0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
US strike on Mexico by December 31?polymarket · close 10%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 4.7k/4.8k within 5¢polymarket10%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 80%not yet markedpolymarket80%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%——0.2%Polymarket ↗
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?invpolymarket · close 88%not yet markedpolymarket88%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?invpolymarket · close 94%not yet markedpolymarket94%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?polymarket · close 32%not yet markedpolymarket32%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Trump and Putin not meet?polymarket · close 36%not yet markedpolymarket36%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 83%not yet markedpolymarket83%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 89%not yet markedpolymarket89%——0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invpolymarket · close 84%not yet markedpolymarket84%——0.1%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 100 constituents by weight.

A governed benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — free to quote with attribution and the “as of” date. Not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. Any basket shown above is hypothetical, marked at mid, before fees, spread and slippage.