W.E.T. Election Politics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "election" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 19, severity frames 0 of 19, threshold frames 1 of 19), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: the universe admitted 2 canonical event(s) on this tape and this index's own declared eligibility ejected every one of them (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 2. That is a statement about LIQUIDITY rather than about coverage: the board does carry this subject inside this window, and no market it carries is tradeable at the thresholds this index published. The close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than admitting a member it declared ineligible.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 2. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 14982, category-not-admitted 1515, horizon-outside-window 31. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 31 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 14982 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 2 of 2 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 6ba35a11161053cf · methodology 5aaed9936535f839 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 57.86 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.
11 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 788.64
- Since inception
- −21.14%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 38.5% of 13
- 1 day
- +0.12%
- 7 day
- −12.54%
- Markets held
- 13
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 63.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 13 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Israel election: will Likud lose seats?polymarket · YES · entry 87c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c96c+10.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c4c−38.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c2c−70.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c3c−76.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 2c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c1c−58.3%8.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Israel election happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 90c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES90c92c+2.3%8.0%Polymarket ↗
- French election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c2c−74.2%6.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump nationalize elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c31 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c8c−31.8%6.9%Polymarket ↗
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 22cpolymarketYES22c4c−81.4%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 54c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES54c84c+54.6%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 46c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES46c11c−76.1%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?polymarket · YES · entry 33c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES33c36c+9.2%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?polymarket · YES · entry 9c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c6c−35.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WELEC · at a glance
- What it is
- 11 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how election is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Election Politics Index 6mo (WELEC) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.