WELEC

W.E.T. Election Politics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
No reading published for 2026-11-14

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
0 of 0 admitted markets pricedκ 0.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "election" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 19, severity frames 0 of 19, threshold frames 1 of 19), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
  • roster refused [empty-roster]: the universe admitted 2 canonical event(s) on this tape and this index's own declared eligibility ejected every one of them (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 2. That is a statement about LIQUIDITY rather than about coverage: the board does carry this subject inside this window, and no market it carries is tradeable at the thresholds this index published. The close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than admitting a member it declared ineligible.
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 2. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 14982, category-not-admitted 1515, horizon-outside-window 31.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 31 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 14982 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 2 of 2 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 6ba35a11161053cf · methodology 5aaed9936535f839 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-11-14§2.6 rung 2

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding

Last published reading: 57.86 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.

11 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print13 held · close 2026-11-14
788.64−21.14%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
788.64
Since inception
−21.14%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
38.5% of 13
1 day
+0.12%
7 day
−12.54%
Markets held
13
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
63.4%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 13 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Israel election: will Likud lose seats?polymarket · YES · entry 87c12 sessions stale96c+10.6%↗
  • Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c4c−38.6%↗
  • Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c2c−70.0%↗
  • Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13c3c−76.0%↗
  • Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 2c15 sessions stale1c−58.3%↗
  • Will Israel election happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 90c12 sessions stale92c+2.3%↗
  • French election called by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c2c−74.2%↗
  • Will Trump nationalize elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c31 sessions stale8c−31.8%↗
  • Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 22c4c−81.4%↗
  • Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 54c15 sessions stale84c+54.6%↗
  • Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 46c15 sessions stale11c−76.1%↗
  • Israeli election results in a hung parliament?polymarket · YES · entry 33c12 sessions stale36c+9.2%↗
  • Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?polymarket · YES · entry 9c15 sessions stale6c−35.3%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

WELEC · at a glance

What it is
11 politics markets carrying the "election" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how election is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

Embed this score

always the latest published reading, dated · attribution built in

Put the live WELEC reading on your own site, README, or newsletter.

Badge For articles, profiles & READMEs

WET Index Score badge preview

The index. Ready to share. Actual embed

Markdown badge
[![WELEC — WET Index Score](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/election-politics-inside-six-months/badge)](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-politics-inside-six-months)
HTML badge
<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-politics-inside-six-months"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/election-politics-inside-six-months/badge" alt="WELEC — WET Index Score" /></a>
Iframe card
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/election-politics-inside-six-months" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WELEC — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“The W.E.T. Election Politics Index 6mo (WELEC) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”

Full methodology →JSONLive intradayDaily report

Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.