W.E.T. Fragmentation Index
v2.0How far apart the venues are on the same question — the 5c(c) problem, indexed.
index level · base 100 (moving to 1,000 — consultation closes 2026-08-27) · WET Close 2026-09-09 · 27 days settled · 38 of 38 constituents provisional
Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →
settled under published methodology · checksum-chained
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- WET Close
- 1.49
- Basis
- direct print
- Since inception
- −0.79pts
- 1 day
- +0.46pts
- Constituents
- 38
- Settled
- 0
- Single venue
- 0
- Provisional
- 38
- Inception
- 2026-08-07
- Weighting
- equal
- Marks
- Consolidated mid
- Days tracked
- 27
The mean absolute cross-venue price gap, in probability points ×100, published directly — no divisor, no chaining, no inception base. A percent change of a dispersion statistic is not a return, so only the absolute move is published.
Equal-weighted. A fragmentation reading asks how far apart venues are on a typical question, so weighting by liquidity would let the deepest handful of markets speak for the whole category.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.
Holdings · 38 markets
the settled composition · live marks are in the level above- BTC ≥ $74,000 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 96%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket96%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- BTC ≥ $76,000 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 84%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket84%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- BTC ≥ $78,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi + polymarket · close 56%not yet markedgemini + kalshi + polymarket56%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $80,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi + polymarket · close 23%not yet markedgemini + kalshi + polymarket23%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $82,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi + polymarket · close 8%not yet markedgemini + kalshi + polymarket8%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $84,000 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 3%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket3%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- ETH ≥ $2,300 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 97%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket97%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- ETH ≥ $2,400 on 2026-09-11gemini + polymarket · close 82%not yet markedgemini + polymarket82%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- ETH ≥ $2,500 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 36%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket36%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- ETH ≥ $2,600 on 2026-09-11gemini + polymarket · close 8%not yet markedgemini + polymarket8%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- ETH ≥ $2,700 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 3%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket3%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- SOL ≥ $95 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 95%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket95%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- SOL ≥ $105 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi + polymarket · close 25%not yet markedgemini + kalshi + polymarket25%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $110 on 2026-09-11kalshi + polymarket · close 6%not yet markedkalshi + polymarket6%——2.6%Kalshi ↗
- XRP ≥ $1.5 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi + polymarket · close 6%not yet markedgemini + kalshi + polymarket6%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $82,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 6%not yet markedgemini + kalshi6%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $81,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 10%not yet markedgemini + kalshi10%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $81,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 14%not yet markedgemini + kalshi14%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $80,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 17%not yet markedgemini + kalshi17%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $79,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 30%not yet markedgemini + kalshi30%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $79,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 38%not yet markedgemini + kalshi38%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $78,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 47%not yet markedgemini + kalshi47%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $77,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 63%not yet markedgemini + kalshi63%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $77,000 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 71%not yet markedgemini + kalshi71%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- BTC ≥ $76,500 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 78%not yet markedgemini + kalshi78%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- XRP ≥ $1.48 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 8%not yet markedgemini + kalshi8%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- XRP ≥ $1.42 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 35%not yet markedgemini + kalshi35%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- XRP ≥ $1.34 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 88%not yet markedgemini + kalshi88%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $99 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 84%not yet markedgemini + kalshi84%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $98 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 87%not yet markedgemini + kalshi87%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $109 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 5%not yet markedgemini + kalshi5%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $108 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 6%not yet markedgemini + kalshi6%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $107 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 11%not yet markedgemini + kalshi11%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $106 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 19%not yet markedgemini + kalshi19%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $104 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 34%not yet markedgemini + kalshi34%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $103 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 44%not yet markedgemini + kalshi44%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $102 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 54%not yet markedgemini + kalshi54%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- SOL ≥ $101 on 2026-09-11gemini + kalshi · close 64%not yet markedgemini + kalshi64%——2.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
A governed benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — free to quote with attribution and the “as of” date. Not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. Any basket shown above is hypothetical, marked at mid, before fees, spread and slippage.