Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about W.E.T. and prediction markets.
What is W.E.T.?
W.E.T. (World Event Trading) is an independent index, product, data, and media business built on prediction markets. We are building a canonical map that connects real-world events to venue-attributed contracts, design governed indexes that track competing views of the future, and let people follow those indexes in a Worldview Portfolio. W.E.T. runs no markets, takes no order flow, and does not let venue economics determine coverage or ranking.
What is a prediction market index?
A prediction market index combines related event contracts into one measurable reading of a thesis about the future — the way a stock index combines companies into one reading of a market. W.E.T. designs these indexes across venues: each one starts from a falsifiable thesis, its constituent markets are normalized and weighted under a published, versioned methodology, and the level (0–100) shows how much support the included markets currently give that thesis. W.E.T. is the index designer for prediction markets — every methodology is public, citable, and governed.
What is a Worldview Portfolio?
A Worldview Portfolio is your selected collection of W.E.T. indexes — the futures you believe are coming, tracked as one time-stamped portfolio. Turn your perspective into a portfolio: choose the theses you support or oppose, and W.E.T. shows the evidence for each view, the evidence against it, and whether markets are moving toward or away from the future you expect. It tracks market support for your views; it is not a brokerage account and does not measure financial returns.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where people can trade on the outcomes of future events. Participants buy and sell contracts based on their beliefs about what will happen, with prices reflecting the crowd's collective probability estimate.
What platforms do you cover?
The current public navigation corpus includes venue-attributed listings from enabled venue feeds. Listings about a related event remain separate unless W.E.T. has confirmed that their outcome definition, rules, resolution source, and observation window are comparable. Coverage is exchange-agnostic and expands on neutral terms as reliable access becomes available.
What does "priced in" mean?
When something is "priced in," it means the market has already incorporated that information or expectation into the current odds. If a piece of news doesn't move the market, it was likely already priced in.
What is a market divergence?
A numerical cross-venue divergence is the difference between comparable observations for contracts confirmed to resolve on the same outcome under compatible rules. Similar titles or a shared event are not enough. Until that identity check passes, W.E.T. shows the listings separately and withholds the numerical gap. A price difference alone is not proof of executable arbitrage; fees, depth, timing, access, and settlement terms also matter.
How do I trade on prediction markets?
W.E.T. is a navigation and intelligence layer, not an exchange or broker. When you choose a venue link, you leave W.E.T. and must follow that venue's current eligibility, identity, funding, rulebook, and risk requirements. W.E.T. never accepts, routes, or executes an order.
Is this financial advice?
No. W.E.T. provides information and analysis for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, and nothing on this site should be construed as financial advice. Prediction market trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
How do I subscribe?
Published index values, public methodology, and market navigation are open to browse. Marketing-email signup is currently disabled, and creating an account does not add you to a newsletter. Account-only and paid capabilities are identified at the action that requires them. The Products page is the source of truth for capabilities currently available in each paid offer.
How can I contact you?
You can reach us through our contact page or via social media. We welcome feedback, story tips, and partnership inquiries.
Do you have a community?
W.E.T. has a community surface for discussing indexes, events, catalysts, and market evidence. Visit the Community page for the current access path and offer details.
Are prediction markets accurate?
Often, yes — decades of research, including the Iowa Electronic Markets project, found market prices frequently competitive with or better than polls, because traders back their views with money and update continuously. They are not infallible: thin liquidity, longshot bias, and manipulation attempts can distort prices. Our blog covers the accuracy evidence in depth.
Which is better, Kalshi or Polymarket?
There is no house venue and W.E.T. does not recommend one by default. Coverage, liquidity, access, fees, and contract rules can differ by listing. W.E.T. attributes each observation to its venue, keeps related listings separate, and publishes a numerical comparison only after the canonical identity check passes. See the Kalshi vs Polymarket page for the current comparison status and method.
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