W.E.T. Capture Politics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "capture" axis stops appearing in politics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 14, severity frames 0 of 14, threshold frames 0 of 14), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (9)
- 4 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 4 of 4 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.250000. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 4 constituents (cap·n = 0.6000 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 4. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16502, horizon-outside-window 24. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 24 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16502 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - orientation: the declared `polarity` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 4 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared polarity axis frames 0 of 4 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `polarity` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 742f0777f0838f0d · methodology ee16cfc96538208f · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
4 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 33.79 on 2026-11-01. It is not carried forward.
20 politics markets carrying the "capture" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 762.44
- Since inception
- −23.76%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 81.3% of 16
- 1 day
- −0.31%
- 7 day
- −4.88%
- Markets held
- 16
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 77.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 16 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c1c−76.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c1c−65.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−18.2%11.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c3c−62.9%11.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 49cpolymarketYES49c9c−82.5%9.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−19.4%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c5c−63.1%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c2c−87.9%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 47c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES47c21c−56.4%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 75cpolymarketYES75c84c+12.0%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 17cpolymarketYES17c2c−88.5%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 41cpolymarketYES41c6c−85.2%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c3c−42.7%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 68c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES68c81c+19.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 45cpolymarketYES45c7c−85.2%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c5c−54.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 4 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 4 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WCAPT · at a glance
- What it is
- 20 politics markets carrying the "capture" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how capture is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Capture Politics Index 6mo (WCAPT) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.