W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingrate-economics-inside-six-months-inverse reads 51.44 against this index’s 48.56. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "rate" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 266. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 15863, category-not-admitted 26, horizon-outside-window 375. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 375 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 15863 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 91 of 266 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 42, below-min-volume 25, price-above-ceiling 13, spread-too-wide 11. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 142 of 175 members and holding 37 of them NO. 105 of 142 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 165 prior member(s), of which 20 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 20 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.003655150 against a gauge basis of 0.485588330; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec deb5d869090a65fb · methodology 2a57e90924444b45 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
175 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1219.44
- Since inception
- +21.94%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 54.9% of 71
- 1 day
- −0.22%
- 7 day
- +1.01%
- Markets held
- 71
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 66.2%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 71 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c4c−94.2%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c17c−29.8%10.0%Polymarket ↗
- Fed rate hike in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 49c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES49c99c+104.1%6.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25c1.0¢ spread · 279.2k/2329.4k within 5¢polymarketYES25c88c+257.1%6.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c14 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%5.9%Kalshi ↗
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c99c+260.0%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62c1.0¢ spread · 144.5k/60.4k within 5¢polymarketYES62c42c−32.5%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c0.2¢ spread · 11.3k/29.6k within 5¢kalshiNO84c98c+16.5%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c99c+8.3%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c57c+187.5%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24c17 sessions stalekalshiYES24c19c−21.3%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−66.7%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c1c−50.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in September 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c27 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+10.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c17 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−50.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c99c+4.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−43.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 86cpolymarketNO86c99c+15.8%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.5%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c18 sessions stalekalshiYES94c99c+5.9%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c10c+111.1%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c5c+42.6%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 52c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES52c3c−95.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c17 sessions stalekalshiYES8c21c+173.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c88c+604.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92ckalshiNO92c99c+7.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c15 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c15 sessions stalekalshiYES71c83c+16.2%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c10c+375.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 91c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES91c70c−23.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c3c−96.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c31c+426.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89ckalshiYES89c98c+10.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c86c+235.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES74c88c+19.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c7c+49.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+6.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 96c14 sessions stalepolymarketNO96c99c+3.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · YES · entry 7c9.7¢ spread · 714/277 within 5¢polymarketYES7c10c+37.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91c1.3¢ spread · 5.6k/3.2k within 5¢polymarketNO91c98c+7.5%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c98c+5.4%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES86c14c−84.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c95c+17.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84ckalshiYES84c99c+18.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 71 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1947.21 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.79 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- 50.48
- Band
- Moderate
- 53d Range
- 3472
- Percentile
- 28th
- 9d Change
- −8.3
- Volatility
- 10.1 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 175
- Effective N
- 21.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 68 K · 107 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
53d published · interactive53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.05/day, projection σ 10.7 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 175 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 155 holdingsHide the remaining 155 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 175 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WRATE · at a glance
- What it is
- 175 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how rate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 6mo (WRATE) prints a WET Index Score of 48.6/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.