Readings may not describe today6 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
6 behind

6 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WINTE

W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
67.76
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
15 of 15 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "interest" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 9, severity frames 0 of 9, threshold frames 2 of 9), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 25. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9324, category-not-admitted 8, horizon-outside-window 46.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 46 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9324 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 10 of 25 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 10. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:split], framing 10 of 15 members and holding 0 of them NO. The 10 members the threshold axis frames split 6/4 between `up` and `down` — a 60% majority against a 67% bar is two directions, not one, so no member is flipped on it today. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec c9685983bb99bb53 · methodology 182f2b7e99b6d4d8 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

67.76Stale · 6 closes behindElevated & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

15 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print26 held · close 2026-09-28
1130.97+13.10%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
1130.97
Since inception
+13.10%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
100.0% of 26
1 day
+0.45%
7 day
+3.46%
Markets held
26
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
44.2%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
34

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 26 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 72c33c−54.5%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c66c+178.7%↗
  • Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68c24c−65.2%↗
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 6927.7k/261.4k within 5¢1c−78.3%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25c75c+204.1%↗
  • Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62c56c−9.8%↗
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c2c−77.6%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20c36c+77.5%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−76.7%↗
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3c−46.2%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c3c+20.5%↗
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c5c−69.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 91c59c−35.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6c42c+621.6%↗
  • No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74c65c−11.6%↗
  • Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 4c1c−77.3%↗
  • No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86c16c−81.9%↗
  • No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81c71c−12.4%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c35c+46.8%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73c73c−0.7%↗
  • Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6c16c+178.0%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−58.3%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 11c84c+695.2%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43c77c+81.2%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 56c22c−61.6%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−52.4%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Elevated
28d Range
6174
Percentile
32th
8d Change
−1.4
Volatility
3.6 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
15
Effective N
7.3
Top Weight
15%
Venues
15 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

138 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed close
60.062.064.066.068.009-22 00:0009-25 08:0009-28 15:00
Latest
60.85
Since 2026-09-22
−5.73
Range
60.1–67.9
Readings
138

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

28d published · interactive

28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
405060708090now67
Projected 14d
67.00
Change
−0.80
80% band
46–88
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope -0.12/day, projection σ 4.4 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
unclassified100% · 15

Constituents by weight

all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set

Where these markets are covered

1 of 15 constituents has a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WINTE · at a glance

What it is
15 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how interest is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 6mo (WINTE) prints a WET Index Score of 67.8/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.