Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "interest" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 9, severity frames 0 of 9, threshold frames 2 of 9), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 20. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11573, category-not-admitted 7, horizon-outside-window 53. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 53 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11573 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 10 of 20 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 8, price-below-floor 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:split], framing 7 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. The 7 members the threshold axis frames split 4/3 between `up` and `down` — a 57% majority against a 67% bar is two directions, not one, so no member is flipped on it today. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec c9685983bb99bb53 · methodology 182f2b7e99b6d4d8 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
10 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1022.64
- Since inception
- +2.26%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 100.0% of 26
- 1 day
- +1.93%
- 7 day
- −0.58%
- Markets held
- 26
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 48.9%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 26 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 72cpolymarketYES72c68c−5.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c31c+29.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c48c−29.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 5038.9k/42.7k within 5¢polymarketYES5c4c−22.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c44c+77.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c61c−1.6%6.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−24.7%5.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c24c+17.5%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c3c−34.9%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c−22.7%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c12c−17.2%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c87c−4.5%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c13c+117.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74cpolymarketYES74c85c+15.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−77.3%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86cpolymarketYES86c55c−35.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81cpolymarketYES81c92c+13.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c15c−36.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73cpolymarketYES73c68c−6.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c2c−59.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−58.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c40c+276.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43cpolymarketYES43c12c−72.9%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 56cpolymarketYES56c89c+58.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−52.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 18d Range
- 6574
- Percentile
- 44th
- 10d Change
- +4.5
- Volatility
- 3.0 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 10
- Effective N
- 7.6
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 10 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
150 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.09/day, projection σ 4.0 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 10 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setWINTE · at a glance
- What it is
- 10 economics markets carrying the "interest" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how interest is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Interest Economics Index 6mo (WINTE) prints a WET Index Score of 69.6/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.