Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WMEE2

W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
83.60
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
30 of 30 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "meeting" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 1 of 12, severity frames 1 of 12, threshold frames 5 of 12), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 58. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9199, category-not-admitted 51, horizon-outside-window 95.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 95 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9199 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 28 of 58 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 28. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 19 of 30 members and holding 6 of them NO. 13 of 19 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 19ce5740e00bd158 · methodology 436ecfcaf3dd42f2 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

83.60Stale · 5 closes behindVery high & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

30 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print23 held · close 2026-09-25
990.37−0.96%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
990.37
Since inception
−0.96%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
4.2% of 23
1 day
0.00%
7 day
0.00%
Markets held
23
Settled
3
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
50.8%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
33

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 23 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c24 sessions stale54c−24.1%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c24 sessions stale44c+52.6%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c24 sessions stale45c+56.1%↗
  • Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c9 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c17 sessions stale3c+25.0%↗
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c27 sessions stale95c+6.8%↗
  • Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 12c27 sessions stale4c−69.6%↗
  • No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c22 sessions stale96c+8.7%↗
  • No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c16 sessions stale98c+3.8%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 64c13 sessions stale77c+19.5%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c12 sessions stale15c−83.7%↗
  • Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 78c22 sessions stale88c+13.5%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c22 sessions stale4c−56.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 64c13 sessions stale78c+21.1%↗
  • Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c24 sessions stale7c−50.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c99c+4.7%↗
  • Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 30c24 sessions stale48c+61.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 23c22 sessions stale12c−48.9%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83c11 sessions stale69c−17.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c11 sessions stale20c+169.9%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c12 sessions stale83c+1457.5%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c11 sessions stale12c+40.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c17 sessions stale96c+2.7%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Very high
28d Range
5289
Percentile
96th
8d Change
+19.8
Volatility
8.1 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
30
Effective N
9.2
Top Weight
15%
Venues
2 K · 28 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed close
70.075.080.085.009-22 00:0009-25 05:0009-28 09:00
Latest
79.28
Since 2026-09-22
−1.03
Range
69.0–85.7
Readings
81+52 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

28d published · interactive

28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
405060708090100now86
Projected 14d
85.60
Change
+2.00
80% band
39–100
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope +0.29/day, projection σ 9.7 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 30

Constituents by weight

all 30 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 10 holdings

Where these markets are covered

3 of 30 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WMEE2 · at a glance

What it is
30 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how meeting is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2mo (WMEE2) prints a WET Index Score of 83.6/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.