W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthly7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "meeting" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 1 of 12, severity frames 1 of 12, threshold frames 5 of 12), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 88. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16016, category-not-admitted 58, horizon-outside-window 368. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 368 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16016 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 50 of 88 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 41, price-above-ceiling 5, below-min-volume 3, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 24 of 38 members and holding 7 of them NO. 17 of 24 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 19ce5740e00bd158 · methodology 436ecfcaf3dd42f2 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
38 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 23 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 23
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 23
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.8%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 23 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c46 sessions stalekalshiYES71c54c−24.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c46 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c44c+52.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c46 sessions stalekalshiYES28c45c+56.1%12.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c31 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%12.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c39 sessions stalekalshiYES2c3c+25.0%12.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c49 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c95c+6.8%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 12c49 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c4c−69.6%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c96c+8.7%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c38 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+3.8%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 64c35 sessions stalepolymarketYES64c77c+19.5%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c15c−83.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 78c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES78c88c+13.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c4c−56.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 64c35 sessions stalepolymarketNO64c78c+21.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c46 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c7c−50.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c23 sessions stalepolymarketNO95c99c+4.7%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 30c46 sessions stalekalshiYES30c48c+61.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 23c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES23c12c−48.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c69c−17.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c20c+169.9%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c83c+1457.5%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c12c+40.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c39 sessions stalekalshiYES94c96c+2.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 44.00
- Band
- Moderate
- 53d Range
- 4189
- Percentile
- 2th
- 9d Change
- −24.6
- Volatility
- 8.0 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 38
- Effective N
- 9.6
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 4 K · 34 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
53d published · interactive53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.16/day, projection σ 9.0 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 38 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 18 holdingsHide the remaining 18 holdings
Where these markets are covered
1 of 38 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WMEE2 · at a glance
- What it is
- 38 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how meeting is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 2mo (WMEE2) prints a WET Index Score of 40.9/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.