Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WANTH

W.E.T. Anthropic Financials Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
44.49
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
11 of 11 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "anthropic" axis stops appearing in financials titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 8, severity frames 0 of 8, threshold frames 1 of 8), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 11. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9307, category-not-admitted 80, horizon-outside-window 5.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 5 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9307 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 11 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 11 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec b90d559d1451c9cf · methodology 613775094f08c9d5 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

44.49Stale · 5 closes behindModerate & cooling, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

11 financials markets carrying the "anthropic" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print22 held · close 2026-09-25
912.56−8.74%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
912.56
Since inception
−8.74%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
63.6% of 22
1 day
+1.66%
7 day
−1.77%
Markets held
22
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
57.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
33

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 22 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c3c−23.5%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c4c−46.2%↗
  • Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 93c2.0¢ spread · 5.8k/5.1k within 5¢92c−1.1%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c6c−14.6%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 9c4 sessions stale4c−56.7%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 16c4 sessions stale19c+19.4%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 16c4 sessions stale24c+47.2%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 92c1.0¢ spread · 12.8k/13.1k within 5¢91c−1.6%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c1.9¢ spread · 46.3k/1.3k within 5¢6c−65.7%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8c3c−64.7%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 68c69c+2.2%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 33c25c−24.6%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 81c82c+1.2%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 3c4 sessions stale2c−41.4%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 48c42c−12.6%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 8c4 sessions stale6c−26.0%↗
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 12c6c−49.1%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c1.0¢ spread · 28.3k/6.7k within 5¢20c+18.2%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 6c4 sessions stale5c−15.5%↗
  • Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 3c4 sessions stale4c+34.8%↗
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 11c4 sessions stale14c+30.7%↗
  • Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c48c+29.7%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Moderate
28d Range
4054
Percentile
25th
8d Change
+4.6
Volatility
4.3 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
11
Effective N
8.5
Top Weight
15%
Venues
11 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed close
38.040.042.044.046.048.009-22 00:0009-25 05:0009-28 09:00
Latest
38.16
Since 2026-09-22
−10.48
Range
37.9–48.8
Readings
133

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

28d published · interactive

28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
203040506070now44
Projected 14d
43.70
Change
−0.80
80% band
19–69
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope -0.12/day, projection σ 5.2 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

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What moved today

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Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

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WANTH · at a glance

What it is
11 financials markets carrying the "anthropic" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how anthropic is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Anthropic Financials Index 6mo (WANTH) prints a WET Index Score of 44.5/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.