W.E.T. Anthropic Financials Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "anthropic" axis stops appearing in financials titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 8, severity frames 0 of 8, threshold frames 1 of 8), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 16446, category-not-admitted 66, horizon-outside-window 18. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 18 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16446, category-not-admitted 66, horizon-outside-window 18. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 18 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16446 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec b90d559d1451c9cf · methodology 613775094f08c9d5 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 39.39 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.
12 financials markets carrying the "anthropic" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 842.66
- Since inception
- −15.73%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 54.5% of 22
- 1 day
- +0.23%
- 7 day
- −9.94%
- Markets held
- 22
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 62.2%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 22 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c−26.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c3c−47.7%11.8%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 93c7.0¢ spread · 335/500 within 5¢polymarketYES93c81c−13.0%7.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c2c−71.5%5.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 9c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c4c−56.7%5.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 16c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c19c+19.4%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 16c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c19c+16.7%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 92c0.7¢ spread · 17.1k/35.7k within 5¢polymarketYES92c79c−14.3%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c7c−57.5%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c7c−12.7%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c24c−64.4%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 33cpolymarketYES33c7c−80.0%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 81cpolymarketYES81c45c−44.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 3c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c2c−41.4%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 48cpolymarketYES48c10c−80.0%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 8c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c6c−26.0%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c2c−79.6%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c1.0¢ spread · 39.1k/42.3k within 5¢polymarketYES17c9c−43.6%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 6c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−15.5%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 3c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c4c+34.8%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 11c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c14c+30.7%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c2 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c23c−37.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WANTH · at a glance
- What it is
- 12 financials markets carrying the "anthropic" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how anthropic is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.