WINC4

W.E.T. Inverse Increase Economics Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
Governed close level
769.2706
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
56.69
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
7.3688e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
The opposing reading

increase-economics-inside-two-months reads 43.31 against this index’s 56.69. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
22 of 22 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 43. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16402, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 84.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 84 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 16402 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 21 of 43 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 18, spread-too-wide 2, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 22 of 22 members and holding 0 of them NO. 22 of 22 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 21 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.000474616 against a gauge basis of 0.566857777; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec abedbe2ddaa16e8d · methodology c2e4f8ade517c6c1 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

56.69−0.90 (−1.56%)Moderate & cooling, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

The same 8 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

No level published for this basket

No return published — not one of this basket's 14 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.

Basket level · official print14 held · close 2026-11-14
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
0.0% of 14
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
14
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
55.8%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 14 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 72c46 sessions stale56c−21.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 23c44 sessions stale12c−46.7%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 92c44 sessions stale96c+5.1%↗
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 12c49 sessions stale6c−52.2%↗
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?polymarket · NO · entry 60c49 sessions stale57c−3.4%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 93c33 sessions stale80c−13.4%↗
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?polymarket · NO · entry 91c49 sessions stale95c+4.4%↗
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?polymarket · NO · entry 86c49 sessions stale77c−11.0%↗
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 58c37 sessions stale55c−5.2%↗
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.3% and 0.4% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 85c37 sessions stale92c+8.2%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c34 sessions stale17c−81.6%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 92c33 sessions stale88c−3.7%↗
  • Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?polymarket · NO · entry 69c49 sessions stale74c+8.0%↗
  • Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 67c37 sessions stale78c+16.5%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+1326.37index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 3326.37 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.37 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
57.56
Band
Moderate
53d Range
4283
Percentile
8th
9d Change
−8.1
Volatility
8.2 pts/d
Streak
2d down
Markets
22
Effective N
10.5
Top Weight
15%
Venues
22 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed close
56.058.060.062.064.066.068.070.072.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
56.46
Since 2026-10-22
−14.23
Range
56.0–71.9
Readings
94+3 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

53d published · interactive

53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
020406080100now55
Projected 14d
55.40
Change
−1.30
80% band
10–100
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.19/day, projection σ 9.6 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 22

Constituents by weight

all 22 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 2 holdings

Where these markets are covered

1 of 22 constituents has a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WINC4 · at a glance

What it is
The same 8 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Increase Economics Index 2mo (WINC4) prints a WET Index Score of 56.7/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.