WSCO2

W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding

No reading published for 2026-11-14

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level

—

no level published

Gauge

—

Divisor

—

what chains this level to the last

Closes

latest 2026-11-14

The opposing reading

score-tech-science-inside-six-months reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage

0 of 0 admitted markets pricedκ 0.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%

Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong

The "score" axis stops appearing in tech-science titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.

How this reading was constructed (7)

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 12512, category-not-admitted 3957, horizon-outside-window 61. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 61 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 12512, category-not-admitted 3957, horizon-outside-window 61.
universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 61 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
universe: 12512 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.

Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec bd96cc3c91fa3c9e · methodology 10f20ec3b3b4316d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-11-14§2.6 rung 2

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding

Last published reading: 85.47 on 2026-11-01. It is not carried forward.

The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, kalshi, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

Basket level · official print58 held · close 2026-11-14

1051.56+5.16%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1051.56
Since inception: +5.16%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 34.5% of 58
1 day: +0.40%
7 day: +2.62%
Markets held: 58
Settled: 2
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 47.5%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 58 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO91c88c−3.3%8.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO92c94c+1.8%4.8%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 90cpolymarketNO90c93c+3.6%4.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c98c+3.6%3.9%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 93cpolymarketNO93c96c+4.1%3.9%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c97c+0.1%3.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 73c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO73c64c−12.4%3.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c94c−1.6%3.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 14c15 sessions stalepolymarketNO14c13c−4.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c75c−18.0%2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 87cpolymarketNO87c89c+3.1%2.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c97c+4.9%2.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO95c93c−1.4%2.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 6c12 sessions stalepolymarketNO6c12c+110.0%2.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c79c−12.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 91c3 sessions stalekalshiNO91c94c+3.3%2.0%Kalshi ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 74c19 sessions stalepolymarketNO74c77c+4.8%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 79c22.0¢ spread · 45/32 within 5¢polymarketNO79c58c−26.6%1.8%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 2c3 sessions stalekalshiNO2c2c−25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 65c2 sessions stalekalshiNO65c69c+6.2%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 84c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO84c84c0.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 85c2 sessions stalepolymarketNO85c81c−4.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 88c33 sessions stalepolymarketNO88c97c+10.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c94c+216.9%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85c2 sessions stalekalshiNO85c92c+7.6%1.5%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 74c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO74c71c−4.1%1.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO92c95c+3.4%1.5%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 8c2 sessions stalekalshiNO8c2c−80.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 74c2 sessions stalekalshiNO74c86c+15.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 36c2 sessions stalekalshiNO36c40c+11.1%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 93c4 sessions stalekalshiNO93c95c+1.6%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiNO95c96c+0.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 27c15 sessions stalepolymarketNO27c6c−78.3%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 46c2.0¢ spread · 554/7.9k within 5¢polymarketNO46c8c−82.4%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO94c95c+1.0%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 66cpolymarketNO66c52c−20.6%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c42c+38.2%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 83c10 sessions stalepolymarketNO83c52c−36.8%1.1%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 89cpolymarketNO89c45c−50.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 63c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO63c75c+19.2%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 61c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO61c39c−36.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO94c95c+0.7%0.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 29c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO29c14c−50.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 56c6 sessions stalepolymarketNO56c84c+50.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 13cpolymarketNO13c91c+628.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 18c1.0¢ spread · 1.7k/330 within 5¢polymarketNO18c92c+408.3%0.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 33c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO33c21c−35.4%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c93c+929.4%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c33 sessions stalepolymarketNO95c99c+4.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 76cpolymarketNO76c95c+25.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 58 constituents by weight. See the full book →

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

WSCO2 · at a glance

What it is: The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, kalshi, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low: Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares: Anyone tracking how score is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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“The W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo (WSCO2) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”

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