Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingscore-tech-science-inside-six-months reads 26.65 against this index’s 73.35. Same markets, opposite side.
45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "score" axis stops appearing in tech-science titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 74. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11119, category-not-admitted 450, horizon-outside-window 10. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 10 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11119 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 6 of 74 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 3, price-above-ceiling 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 63 of 68 members and holding 0 of them NO. 63 of 63 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 69 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.999558313 against a gauge basis of 0.733501346; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec bd96cc3c91fa3c9e · methodology 10f20ec3b3b4316d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 975.04
- Since inception
- −2.50%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 98.3% of 60
- 1 day
- −3.69%
- 7 day
- −1.58%
- Markets held
- 60
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.3%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 60 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c83c−8.8%8.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c93c+1.0%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 90cpolymarketNO90c96c+6.1%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c93c−1.6%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 93cpolymarketNO93c96c+3.2%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c97c−0.5%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 73cpolymarketNO73c74c+1.4%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c96c+0.7%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 14cpolymarketNO14c12c−14.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c94c+2.2%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 87cpolymarketNO87c87c+0.8%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 490/1.0k within 5¢polymarketNO56c65c+14.2%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c96c+4.5%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c92c−3.0%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 6cpolymarketNO6c13c+131.8%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c79c−13.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 91ckalshiNO91c54c−40.3%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c61c−17.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 79cpolymarketNO79c75c−5.1%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 2ckalshiNO2c1c−50.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 65ckalshiNO65c50c−22.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 84cpolymarketNO84c85c+0.6%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 85cpolymarketNO85c81c−4.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c56c−35.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c28c−6.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85ckalshiNO85c56c−33.5%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c71c−3.4%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c88c−4.4%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 8ckalshiNO8c4c−53.3%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 74ckalshiNO74c56c−25.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 36ckalshiNO36c39c+8.3%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 93ckalshiNO93c48c−48.4%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95ckalshiNO95c86c−9.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 27cpolymarketNO27c18c−32.7%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 46cpolymarketNO46c16c−65.9%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c95c+0.8%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 66cpolymarketNO66c56c−13.7%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c10c−65.3%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 83cpolymarketNO83c80c−3.1%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 89cpolymarketNO89c89c−0.6%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 63cpolymarketNO63c50c−20.8%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 61cpolymarketNO61c60c−1.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c94c+0.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 29cpolymarketNO29c37c+25.9%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 56cpolymarketNO56c56c+0.9%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 13cpolymarketNO13c20c+56.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 18c1.0¢ spread · 883/737 within 5¢polymarketNO18c27c+47.2%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c38c+16.9%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c12c+27.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c91c−3.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 60 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2031.95 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.60 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 18d Range
- 5873
- Percentile
- 100th
- 10d Change
- +4.8
- Volatility
- 4.6 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 68
- Effective N
- 28.0
- Top Weight
- 12%
- Venues
- 68 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
150 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.03/day, projection σ 6.1 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 68 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 48 holdingsHide the remaining 48 holdings
WSCO2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how score is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo (WSCO2) prints a WET Index Score of 73.4/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.