Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingscore-tech-science-inside-six-months reads 20.82 against this index’s 79.18. Same markets, opposite side.
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "score" axis stops appearing in tech-science titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 65. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9255, category-not-admitted 61, horizon-unknown 4, horizon-outside-window 18. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 18 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 4 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9255 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 3 of 65 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 2, price-above-ceiling 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 58 of 62 members and holding 0 of them NO. 58 of 58 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 62 prior member(s), of which 2 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 2 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.992317085 against a gauge basis of 0.791789896; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec bd96cc3c91fa3c9e · methodology 10f20ec3b3b4316d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1034.49
- Since inception
- +3.45%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 65.0% of 60
- 1 day
- +0.54%
- 7 day
- +0.58%
- Markets held
- 60
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 48.3%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 34
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 60 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c88c−3.3%8.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c93c+0.7%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 90cpolymarketNO90c96c+6.7%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c92c−3.2%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 93cpolymarketNO93c97c+4.4%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c96c−0.8%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 73cpolymarketNO73c64c−12.4%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c92c−2.9%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 14cpolymarketNO14c7c−46.7%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c90c−1.6%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 87cpolymarketNO87c95c+9.4%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 56c22.0¢ spread · 255/10 within 5¢polymarketNO56c61c+8.0%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c96c+4.5%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c95c−0.2%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 6cpolymarketNO6c30c+446.4%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c79c−13.7%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 91c7 sessions stalekalshiNO91c95c+4.4%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c64c−13.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 79cpolymarketNO79c75c−5.7%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 2c7 sessions stalekalshiNO2c2c−25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 65c7 sessions stalekalshiNO65c77c+19.4%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 84cpolymarketNO84c82c−3.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 85cpolymarketNO85c81c−4.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 88c12 sessions stalepolymarketNO88c97c+10.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c31c+3.4%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85c7 sessions stalekalshiNO85c52c−39.4%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c66c−10.2%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c89c−3.3%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 8c7 sessions stalekalshiNO8c19c+146.7%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 74c7 sessions stalekalshiNO74c62c−16.9%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 36c7 sessions stalekalshiNO36c51c+41.7%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 93c7 sessions stalekalshiNO93c52c−44.1%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c7 sessions stalekalshiNO95c97c+1.6%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 27cpolymarketNO27c9c−68.2%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 46cpolymarketNO46c14c−69.2%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c95c+0.6%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 66cpolymarketNO66c59c−10.7%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c23c−24.3%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 83cpolymarketNO83c82c−1.0%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 89cpolymarketNO89c88c−1.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 63cpolymarketNO63c67c+6.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 61cpolymarketNO61c39c−36.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c96c+2.3%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 29cpolymarketNO29c14c−50.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 56cpolymarketNO56c73c+29.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 13cpolymarketNO13c11c−16.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 18c4.0¢ spread · 334/660 within 5¢polymarketNO18c56c+208.3%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c21c−35.4%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c5c−43.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c12 sessions stalepolymarketNO95c99c+4.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 60 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1977.79 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.31 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 28d Range
- 5880
- Percentile
- 93th
- 8d Change
- +2.1
- Volatility
- 4.0 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 62
- Effective N
- 20.0
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 62 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 5 sessions
137 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
28d published · interactive28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope +0.24/day, projection σ 4.8 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 62 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 42 holdingsHide the remaining 42 holdings
WSCO2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same 13 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how score is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Score Tech Science Index 6mo (WSCO2) prints a WET Index Score of 79.2/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.