W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "meeting" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 1 of 15, severity frames 1 of 15, threshold frames 6 of 15), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 204. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16016, category-not-admitted 58, horizon-outside-window 252. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 252 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16016 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 73 of 204 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 36, below-min-volume 20, price-above-ceiling 11, spread-too-wide 6. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 107 of 131 members and holding 34 of them NO. 73 of 107 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec d4047442e9b43af4 · methodology c2b4dc8de249d0bf · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
131 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1200.59
- Since inception
- +20.06%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 54.9% of 51
- 1 day
- −0.10%
- 7 day
- +1.40%
- Markets held
- 51
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 70.5%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 51 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c4c−94.2%12.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c17c−29.8%11.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25c1.0¢ spread · 279.2k/2329.4k within 5¢polymarketYES25c88c+257.1%7.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c14 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%6.6%Kalshi ↗
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c99c+260.0%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62c1.0¢ spread · 144.5k/60.4k within 5¢polymarketYES62c42c−32.5%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c99c+8.3%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c57c+187.5%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4c28 sessions stalekalshiYES4c3c−14.3%1.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24c17 sessions stalekalshiYES24c19c−21.3%1.2%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c17 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−50.0%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c99c+4.4%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−43.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c94c+2.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 86cpolymarketNO86c99c+15.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c18 sessions stalekalshiYES94c99c+5.9%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c8c−11.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c10c+111.1%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c17 sessions stalekalshiYES8c21c+173.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92ckalshiNO92c99c+7.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c15 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c15 sessions stalekalshiYES71c83c+16.2%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c10c+375.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c3c−96.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89ckalshiYES89c98c+10.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c86c+235.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES74c88c+19.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+6.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c98c+5.4%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES86c14c−84.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c95c+17.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84ckalshiYES84c99c+18.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c98c+4.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c12c−51.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53ckalshiYES53c99c+86.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+4.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES73c90c+22.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+5.9%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91ckalshiYES91c98c+7.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90ckalshiYES90c98c+8.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19ckalshiYES19c97c+421.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stalekalshiYES5c2c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 51 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- 68.90
- Band
- Elevated
- 53d Range
- 4084
- Percentile
- 66th
- 9d Change
- +2.7
- Volatility
- 6.8 pts/d
- Streak
- 3d up
- Markets
- 131
- Effective N
- 17.1
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 41 K · 90 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
53d published · interactive53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.18/day, projection σ 8.0 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 131 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 111 holdingsHide the remaining 111 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 131 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WMEET · at a glance
- What it is
- 131 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how meeting is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 6mo (WMEET) prints a WET Index Score of 69.1/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.