Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStanding45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "meeting" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 1 of 15, severity frames 1 of 15, threshold frames 6 of 15), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 32. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11459, category-not-admitted 55, horizon-outside-window 107. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 107 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11459 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 8 of 32 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 4, below-min-volume 3, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 19 of 24 members and holding 6 of them NO. 13 of 19 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec d4047442e9b43af4 · methodology c2b4dc8de249d0bf · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
24 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1082.20
- Since inception
- +8.22%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 83.6% of 55
- 1 day
- +0.32%
- 7 day
- +1.31%
- Markets held
- 55
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 46.2%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 55 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 72cpolymarketYES72c68c−5.6%13.1%Polymarket ↗
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 39c2.0¢ spread · 31.3k/43.5k within 5¢polymarketYES39c67c+71.8%12.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c48c−29.6%12.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c31c+29.8%11.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95ckalshiNO95c97c+2.1%10.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c0.1¢ spread · 5038.9k/42.7k within 5¢polymarketNO95c96c+1.1%7.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c44c+77.6%7.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+0.5%6.6%Kalshi ↗
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28cpolymarketYES28c54c+94.5%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c61c−1.6%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c93c+2.2%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c24c+17.5%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4c4 sessions stalekalshiYES4c2c−42.9%1.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24ckalshiYES24c28c+17.0%1.2%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c97c+1.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c−22.7%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92cpolymarketYES92c86c−6.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 86cpolymarketNO86c88c+2.9%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c4 sessions stalekalshiYES98c97c−1.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c97c+3.2%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c14c+70.6%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c7c+55.6%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c7c−6.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c9.0¢ spread · 10.7k/198 within 5¢kalshiNO92c89c−3.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c4 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71ckalshiYES71c69c−3.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c4 sessions stalekalshiYES2c3c+25.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c49c−28.1%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89ckalshiYES89c90c+1.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c97c−0.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c42c+64.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74cpolymarketYES74c85c+15.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c97c+1.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c96c+1.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c97c+3.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c92c−1.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86cpolymarketYES86c55c−35.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81cpolymarketYES81c92c+13.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84ckalshiYES84c93c+10.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c95c+1.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c96c+1.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c15c−36.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53ckalshiYES53c78c+47.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c96c+2.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73cpolymarketYES73c68c−6.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 55 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very high
- 18d Range
- 6484
- Percentile
- 100th
- 10d Change
- +10.0
- Volatility
- 4.7 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 24
- Effective N
- 9.5
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 8 K · 16 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
151 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope +0.41/day, projection σ 6.2 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 24 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
2 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WMEET · at a glance
- What it is
- 24 economics markets carrying the "meeting" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how meeting is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Meeting Economics Index 6mo (WMEET) prints a WET Index Score of 83.7/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.