BenchmarkWETX

World Event Uncertainty Index

v2.0
45.01lvllast move 2026-09-22 · no direction is stated from a stale reading

How uncertain the world is right now, priced — entropy across every category the desk watches.

index level · base 100 (moving to 1,000 — consultation closes 2026-08-27) · WET Close 2026-09-22 · 36 days settled · every constituent priced from one venue

Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →

WET Close · official print0/40 marked · close 2026-09-22
45.01+1.12ptson the day · direct print

settled under published methodology · checksum-chained

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
WET Close
45.01
Basis
direct print
Since inception
+4.02pts
1 day
+1.12pts
Constituents
40
Settled
0
Single venue
4158
Provisional
0
Inception
2026-08-06
Weighting
capped liquidity
Marks
Consolidated mid
Days tracked
36

The uncertainty gauge U = 100·ΣwᵢH(pᵢ)/H_max is published directly — no divisor, no chaining, no inception base. A percent change of an entropy reading is not a return, so only the absolute move in index points is published.

Capped liquidity weights (cap 10%), no severity term — uncertainty about a rate print is still uncertainty.

WETX publishes 40 of the 4,158 constituents its 2026-09-22 level was computed over — the first 40 the settlement recorded, not a ranked selection, so these are not necessarily the largest. The remainder is real and priced but not written to the settlement row: a full daily roster at this width would be tens of megabytes a year. These holdings are a window on the index, not the index — figures computed from them alone would not reproduce the published level.

A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.

Holdings · 40 markets

the settled composition · live marks are in the level above
MarketNowΔ
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · close 42%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · close 59%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 38%not yet marked0.1¢ spread · 574.0k/237.6k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 24%not yet marked——↗
  • Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 2%not yet marked——↗
  • Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 6%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 12%not yet marked——↗
  • Netanyahu out by end of 2026?polymarket · close 51%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket · close 42%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket · close 59%not yet marked——↗
  • Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?polymarket · close 4%not yet marked0.1¢ spread · 8640.3k/459.5k within 5¢——↗
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 730.7k/682.8k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · close 95%not yet marked0.2¢ spread · 69.5k/3317.7k within 5¢——↗
  • Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 85%not yet marked0.9¢ spread · 26.3k/113.6k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 28%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 10%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 53%not yet marked0.9¢ spread · 223.4k/42.0k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked——↗
  • US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?polymarket · close 6%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 159.4k/55.8k within 5¢——↗
  • Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 3039.4k/485.5k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 26.5k/12.0k within 5¢——↗
  • Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet marked——↗
  • Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 14%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet marked——↗
  • Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 10%not yet marked——↗
  • Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet marked——↗
  • Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet marked2.0¢ spread · 194.9k/63.7k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · close 56%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 79.7k/54.6k within 5¢——↗
  • Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · close 42%not yet marked——↗
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket · close 66%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 111.2k/74.5k within 5¢——↗
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepolymarket · close 28%not yet marked——↗
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepolymarket · close 8%not yet marked——↗
  • Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · close 93%not yet marked1.0¢ spread · 499.5k/260.8k within 5¢——↗

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A governed benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — free to quote with attribution and the “as of” date. Not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. Any basket shown above is hypothetical, marked at mid, before fees, spread and slippage.