World Event Uncertainty Index
v2.0How uncertain the world is right now, priced — entropy across every category the desk watches.
WET Close 2026-08-12 · 7 days settled · 3328 priced from one venue
Benchmark status, logic & track record →Published methodology v2.0 →Governance & restatement policy →Settlement history (JSON) →
settled under published methodology · checksum-chained
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Level
- 41.26
- Basis
- direct print
- Since inception
- +0.27pts
- 1 day
- −0.04pts
- Constituents
- 40
- Marked
- 0/40
- Settled
- 0
- Single venue
- 3328
- Provisional
- 0
- Inception
- 2026-08-06
- Weighting
- capped liquidity
- Marks
- Consolidated mid
- Days tracked
- 7
The uncertainty gauge U = 100·ΣwᵢH(pᵢ)/H_max is published directly — no divisor, no chaining, no inception base. A percent change of an entropy reading is not a return, so only the absolute move in index points is published.
Capped liquidity weights (cap 10%), no severity term — uncertainty about a rate print is still uncertainty.
WETX publishes 40 of the 3,328 constituents its 2026-08-12 level was computed over — the first 40 the settlement recorded, not a ranked selection, so these are not necessarily the largest. The remainder is real and priced but not written to the settlement row: a full daily roster at this width would be tens of megabytes a year. These holdings are a window on the index, not the index — figures computed from them alone would not reproduce the published level.
Live level: WETX cannot be repriced from this roster: the settlement row publishes 40 of 3,328 constituents and stores no liquidity for them, so neither the composition nor the weights of the published index are recoverable. Holdings below are marked individually; no index level is computed from them.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices. The holdings below are the composition the published close was computed over, priced at the mid, before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders — every holding links to the venue that lists it. The index is not directly investable. Data, not advice.
Holdings · 40 markets
the settled composition · live marks are in the level above- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?polymarket · close 43%not yet markedpolymarket43%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · close 64%not yet markedpolymarket64%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · close 28%not yet markedpolymarket28%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 32%not yet markedpolymarket32%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 26%not yet markedpolymarket26%———Polymarket ↗
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%———Polymarket ↗
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 14%not yet markedpolymarket14%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%———Polymarket ↗
- Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket · close 10%not yet markedpolymarket10%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket · close 82%not yet markedpolymarket82%———Polymarket ↗
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket · close 18%not yet markedpolymarket18%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · close 7%not yet markedpolymarket7%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · close 93%not yet markedpolymarket93%———Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 5%not yet markedpolymarket5%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 81%not yet markedpolymarket81%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 31%not yet markedpolymarket31%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 53%not yet markedpolymarket53%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%———Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · close 67%not yet markedpolymarket67%———Polymarket ↗
- FED-FUNDS hike of 25bps at the 2026-09-16 decisionpolymarket · close 33%not yet markedpolymarket33%———Polymarket ↗
- Israel closes its airspace by August 15?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 3%not yet markedpolymarket3%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 9%not yet markedpolymarket9%———Polymarket ↗
- Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 4%not yet markedpolymarket4%———Polymarket ↗
- Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%———Polymarket ↗
- Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · close 2%not yet markedpolymarket2%———Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · close 67%not yet markedpolymarket67%———Polymarket ↗
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · close 6%not yet markedpolymarket6%———Polymarket ↗
A governed benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — free to quote with attribution and the “as of” date. Not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. Any basket shown above is hypothetical, marked at mid, before fees, spread and slippage.