Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Rates Economics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthly32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "rates" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 6, severity frames 0 of 6, threshold frames 1 of 6), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 35. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9299, category-not-admitted 2, horizon-outside-window 67. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 67 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9299 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 20 of 35 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 20. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 9 of 15 members and holding 1 of them NO. 8 of 9 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 4dafb5681affcbb2 · methodology 872d23a920fe7137 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
15 economics markets carrying the "rates" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1006.46
- Since inception
- +0.65%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 27.3% of 10
- 1 day
- +0.02%
- 7 day
- +0.08%
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 2
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 33
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c24 sessions stalekalshiYES71c54c−24.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c44c+52.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c24 sessions stalekalshiYES28c45c+56.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c96c+8.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c16 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+3.8%6.5%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c15c−83.7%6.1%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c4c−56.0%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 87cpolymarketYES87c99c+13.8%3.5%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c83c+1457.5%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c99c+12.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very high
- 28d Range
- 5291
- Percentile
- 89th
- 8d Change
- +14.6
- Volatility
- 8.3 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 15
- Effective N
- 8.4
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 2 K · 13 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
28d published · interactive28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope +0.64/day, projection σ 10.0 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
2 of 15 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WRAT4 · at a glance
- What it is
- 15 economics markets carrying the "rates" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how rates is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 60 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Rates Economics Index 2mo (WRAT4) prints a WET Index Score of 85.9/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.