Prediction Market News

One email, every morning: the day's biggest odds moves, the widest Kalshi-vs-Polymarket gaps, and the events markets are watching. Auto-built from W.E.T. data. Free.

Double opt-in · one email a day · unsubscribe anytime. No spam.

The W.E.T. Wire

All editorial →

Editorial, on a loop

Analysis

Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls

A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.

Read Platforms

Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond

How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.

Read Education

How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities

Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.

Read Platforms

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?

A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.

Read Strategy

Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners

An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.

Read Education

What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes, with prices that read as probabilities. Here is how event trading works.

Read

Loading…

Prediction Market News — Live Kalshi & Polymarket Odds and Catalysts

Odds & Previews

Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability

Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability

California Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MLB World Series Champion 2026 — Odds & Probability

NBA: LeBron James Next Team — Odds & Probability

What will happen before GTA VI? — Odds & Probability

Get the Daily Signal Sheet

Editorial, on a loop

Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls

Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond

How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?

Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners

What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works

Prediction Market News — Live Kalshi & Polymarket Odds and Catalysts

Charli XCX 'Music, Fashion, Film' First Week Album Sales?

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Intel say during their next earnings call?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Verizon say during their next earnings call?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?

Fed Event Window - 21:00 UTC

Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by...?

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 total capital expenditures be above __?

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?

Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?

Fed Event Window - 21:00 UTC

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above __?

SOL 15m Window - 00:05 UTC

Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Cloud revenue be above __?

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above __?

Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?

Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Which company has best AI model end of August?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Intel say during their next earnings call?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Verizon say during their next earnings call?

Charli XCX 'Music, Fashion, Film' First Week Album Sales?

Ariana Grande 'Petal' First Week Album Sales?

Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of August 1

Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by...?

Inflation Data Window - 00:59 UTC

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Fed Event Window - 21:00 UTC

Fed Event Window - 21:00 UTC

Odds & Previews

Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Probability

Fed Decision in July 2026? — Odds & Probability

California Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MLB World Series Champion 2026 — Odds & Probability

NBA: LeBron James Next Team — Odds & Probability

What will happen before GTA VI? — Odds & Probability

Get the Daily Signal Sheet

Editorial, on a loop

Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls

Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond

How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?

Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners

What Is a Prediction Market? How Event Trading Works

Charli XCX 'Music, Fashion, Film' First Week Album Sales?

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Intel say during their next earnings call?

TRUMP Mention Window - 20:59 UTC

What will Verizon say during their next earnings call?

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?