Dated Prediction-Market Snapshot

ElectionsArena 04 · The Arena TimelineElection Day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 60 days out

2026 Midterm Election Odds

The September 5, 2026 W.E.T. snapshot records the Democratic Party at 52% for Senate control and the Democratic Party at 88% for House control across 348 open midterm market pages from Polymarket, with $85.4M in comparable USD-reported volume. Contract counts and mixed-unit totals are not added to that USD figure.

The 2026 midterm market pages in W.E.T.’s corpus, with each observation attributed to its actual venue. The current capture covers Polymarket; race pages refresh as new snapshots land and convert to permanent “what the market predicted” archives once each race settles. Data, not advice; see the methodology.

Control of Congress

What the market has actually priced

Seats priced

21 of 35

60% of the Senate on the ballot

In play

5

favourite under 65%

Closest

51%

Texas

AK64ME70
VT·
NH83
WA·
ID93MT92
ND·
MN90
IL·
WI·
MI65
NY·
RI·
MA95
OR·
NV·
WY·
SD96IA61
IN·
OH56
PA·
NJ·
CT·
CA·
UT·
CO·
NE69
MO·
KY95
WV·
VA·
MD·
DE·
AZ·
NM·
KS·
AR·
TN·
NC89SC85
DC·
OK·
LA94MS94
AL·
GA94
HI·
TX51FL92
Democratic leanRepublican leanin playnot priced

21 of 35 seats priced · shade is the favourite's confidence, gold outline is in play

Seats are shown as coverage and ranked by how close they are — they are never summed into a chamber forecast. Control is priced directly by the market above, which is the honest number: seats are correlated, so multiplying them would invent a precision that is not there.

Seats priced

190 of 435

44% of the House on the ballot

In play

6

favourite under 65%

Closest

34%

FL-07

Seats are shown as coverage and ranked by how close they are — they are never summed into a chamber forecast. Control is priced directly by the market above, which is the honest number: seats are correlated, so multiplying them would invent a precision that is not there.

Senate races

21 markets
Alaska

Alaska Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Mary Peltola · Polymarket · $465K vol

64%
Florida

Florida Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Ashley Moody (R) · Polymarket · $105.9K vol

92%
Georgia

Georgia Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Jon Ossoff (D) · Polymarket · $122.5K vol

94%
Idaho

Idaho Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $26.8K vol

93%
Iowa

Iowa Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Ashley Hinson (R) · Polymarket · $223.2K vol

61%
Kansas

Kansas Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Kentucky

Kentucky Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Andy Barr (R) · Polymarket · $31.3K vol

95%
Louisiana

Louisiana Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $29.4K vol

94%
Maine

Maine Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Troy Jackson (D) · Polymarket · $1.2M vol

70%
Massachusetts

Massachusetts Senate Election Winner — Odds

Democrat · Polymarket · $41.4K vol

95%
Michigan

Michigan Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Abdul El-Sayed (D) · Polymarket · $648.2K vol

65%
Minnesota

Minnesota Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Peggy Flanagan (D) · Polymarket · $53.8K vol

90%
Mississippi

Mississippi Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $44.6K vol

94%
Montana

Montana Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $117.8K vol

92%
Nebraska

Nebraska Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Pete Ricketts (R) · Polymarket · $219.4K vol

69%
New Hampshire

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner — Odds

Democrat · Polymarket · $93.3K vol

83%
North Carolina

North Carolina Senate Election Winner — Odds

Roy Cooper (D) · Polymarket · $87.7K vol

89%
Ohio

Ohio Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Sherrod Brown (D) · Polymarket · $206.3K vol

56%
South Carolina

South Carolina Senate Election Winner — Odds

Republican · Polymarket · $158.9K vol

85%
South Dakota

South Dakota Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $22.4K vol

96%
Texas

Texas Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability

James Talarico (D) · Polymarket · $994.6K vol

51%

Governor races

25 markets
Alabama

Alabama Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $16.1K vol

90%
Alaska

Alaska Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins · Polymarket · $1.2M vol

61%
Arizona

Arizona Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $64.9K vol

84%
California

California Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Xavier Becerra · Polymarket · $40.9M vol

96%
Connecticut

Connecticut Governor Election Winner — Odds

Democrat · Polymarket · $9.2K vol

98%
Florida

Florida Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Byron Donalds (R) · Polymarket · $56.6K vol

79%
Georgia

Georgia Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) · Polymarket · $67.1K vol

60%
Hawaii

Hawaii Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $14.4K vol

95%
Iowa

Iowa Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Rob Sand (D) · Polymarket · $67.2K vol

74%
Kansas

Kansas Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $19.9K vol

69%
Maine

Maine Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Maryland

Maryland Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $19.8K vol

95%
Minnesota

Minnesota Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $66.5K vol

93%
Nevada

Nevada Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Joe Lombardo (R) · Polymarket · $89.3K vol

57%
New Mexico

New Mexico Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $31.8K vol

92%
New York

New York Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $103.5K vol

95%
Ohio

Ohio Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Amy Acton (D) · Polymarket · $181.5K vol

56%
Oklahoma

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $25.4K vol

94%
Oregon

Oregon Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democrat · Polymarket · $40.6K vol

86%
Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner — Odds

Democrat · Polymarket · $49.1K vol

96%
Rhode Island

Rhode Island Governor Election Winner — Odds

Democrat · Polymarket · $66.4K vol

95%
South Dakota

South Dakota Governor Election Winner — Odds

Republican · Polymarket · $17.8K vol

95%
Texas

Texas Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Greg Abbott (R) · Polymarket · $88.2K vol

83%
Vermont

Vermont Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican · Polymarket · $65.9K vol

88%
Wisconsin

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability

David Crowley (D) · Polymarket · $555.6K vol

83%

House districts

289 markets

District markets list gradually through the cycle — coverage grows toward November.

AL-01

AL-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $47.5K vol

95%
AL-02

AL-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.6K vol

75%
AL-03

AL-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

AL-04

AL-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $37.3K vol

96%
AL-05

AL-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $42.7K vol

94%
AL-06

AL-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

AL-07

AL-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $69.5K vol

95%
AZ-01

AZ-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

AZ-03

AZ-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $50K vol

98%
AZ-04

AZ-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $32.2K vol

93%
AZ-05

AZ-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $33.8K vol

91%
AZ-06

AZ-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

AZ-07

AZ-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $32.8K vol

96%
AZ-09

AZ-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $25.6K vol

95%
CA-01

CA-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-03

CA-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $43.4K vol

95%
CA-04

CA-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-06

CA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $48.5K vol

95%
CA-07

CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual) — Odds & Probability

CA-08

CA-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $43.4K vol

96%
CA-09

CA-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-11

CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds

Scott Wiener · Polymarket · $13K vol

60%
CA-13

CA-13 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $15.7K vol

94%
CA-14

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds

Aisha Wahab · Polymarket · $19.1K vol

88%
CA-16

CA-16 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $105.1K vol

97%
CA-19

CA-19 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $47.6K vol

95%
CA-21

CA-21 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-22

CA-22 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $11.5K vol

88%
CA-23

CA-23 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $59K vol

93%
CA-24

CA-24 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $44.8K vol

95%
CA-25

CA-25 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-26

CA-26 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-27

CA-27 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $17.1K vol

95%
CA-28

CA-28 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $135.9K vol

97%
CA-30

CA-30 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-31

CA-31 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $15.7K vol

95%
CA-32

CA-32 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $24.7K vol

94%
CA-34

CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds

Angela Gonzales-Torres · Polymarket · $12.1K vol

56%
CA-34

CA-34 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $46.3K vol

97%
CA-36

CA-36 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $33.4K vol

95%
CA-37

CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual) — Odds

Sydney Kamlager-Dove · Polymarket · $29K vol

93%
CA-39

CA-39 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-42

CA-42 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $20.6K vol

94%
CA-44

CA-44 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $46.3K vol

97%
CA-45

CA-45 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $32.5K vol

92%
CA-46

CA-46 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $22.5K vol

96%
CA-48

CA-48 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $27.8K vol

88%
CA-49

CA-49 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CA-50

CA-50 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CO-01

CO-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $39.5K vol

96%
CO-02

CO-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $40.1K vol

95%
CO-07

CO-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CO-08

CO-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

CT-02

CT-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $12.4K vol

95%
CT-04

CT-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-01

FL-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-02

FL-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-03

FL-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $28.9K vol

93%
FL-04

FL-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $26.1K vol

88%
FL-05

FL-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $16.8K vol

93%
FL-06

FL-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-07

FL-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $21.3K vol

34%
FL-08

FL-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-12

FL-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $55.7K vol

89%
FL-13

FL-13 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $7.7K vol

70%
FL-14

FL-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-15

FL-15 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $17K vol

92%
FL-19

FL-19 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

FL-20

FL-20 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $32.7K vol

95%
FL-21

FL-21 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $14.2K vol

91%
FL-22

FL-22 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $36.7K vol

59%
FL-23

FL-23 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $20K vol

93%
FL-26

FL-26 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $62.2K vol

90%
FL-27

FL-27 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $17.5K vol

78%
FL-28

FL-28 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $57.3K vol

95%
GA-05

GA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $52.4K vol

97%
GA-06

GA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $23.4K vol

95%
GA-07

GA-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $29.6K vol

90%
GA-09

GA-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

GA-11

GA-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $42K vol

95%
GA-12

GA-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

HI-02

HI-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IA-04

IA-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

ID-02

ID-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IL-05

IL-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $25.2K vol

96%
IL-06

IL-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IL-08

IL-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $20.7K vol

94%
IL-11

IL-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $37.4K vol

95%
IL-13

IL-13 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IL-14

IL-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $14K vol

95%
IL-15

IL-15 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IL-16

IL-16 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IL-17

IL-17 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IN-02

IN-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $31.2K vol

95%
IN-03

IN-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $24K vol

96%
IN-05

IN-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

IN-06

IN-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $37.2K vol

95%
IN-07

IN-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $39.2K vol

95%
IN-09

IN-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $24.1K vol

95%
KS-01

KS-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

KS-03

KS-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $28.3K vol

94%
KS-04

KS-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $63.9K vol

93%
KY-01

KY-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

KY-03

KY-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $37.2K vol

95%
KY-05

KY-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

KY-06

KY-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-01

LA-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-02

LA-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-03

LA-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-04

LA-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-05

LA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

LA-06

LA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $64.9K vol

94%
MA-01

MA-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $51.8K vol

96%
MA-02

MA-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $63.2K vol

95%
MA-05

MA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MA-08

MA-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MA-09

MA-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $20.7K vol

94%
MD-01

MD-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $56.5K vol

91%
MD-02

MD-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $24.2K vol

95%
MD-04

MD-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MD-06

MD-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MD-07

MD-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

ME-02

ME-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MI-03

MI-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $15.9K vol

91%
MI-05

MI-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $17.7K vol

94%
MI-06

MI-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $50.7K vol

96%
MI-08

MI-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $15.2K vol

92%
MI-09

MI-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $33.6K vol

95%
MI-11

MI-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $76.3K vol

96%
MI-12

MI-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $38.7K vol

98%
MN-01

MN-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $29K vol

62%
MN-02

MN-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $27.6K vol

93%
MN-03

MN-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $21.9K vol

95%
MN-04

MN-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MN-05

MN-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MN-06

MN-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MN-07

MN-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MN-08

MN-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MO-01

MO-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MO-03

MO-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $21.1K vol

91%
MO-04

MO-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MO-05

MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory — Odds

Democrat 3%+ · Polymarket · $23K vol

80%
MO-05

MO-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $18.7K vol

90%
MO-06

MO-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MO-07

MO-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $23.4K vol

95%
MS-01

MS-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $114.9K vol

95%
MS-02

MS-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

MS-03

MS-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $61.9K vol

96%
MS-04

MS-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.6K vol

97%
MT-02

MT-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NC-04

NC-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $44.7K vol

95%
NC-06

NC-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $45.4K vol

91%
NC-07

NC-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NC-08

NC-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $22.5K vol

92%
NC-09

NC-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $18.5K vol

82%
NC-11

NC-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NC-12

NC-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $64.2K vol

95%
NC-14

NC-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NE-01

NE-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NE-02

NE-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NE-03

NE-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $15K vol

95%
NH-02

NH-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NJ-01

NJ-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NJ-02

NJ-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $23.1K vol

82%
NJ-03

NJ-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NJ-04

NJ-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $18.2K vol

96%
NJ-05

NJ-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $24.4K vol

96%
NJ-07

NJ-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $9.8K vol

82%
NJ-09

NJ-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NJ-10

NJ-10 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NJ-11

NJ-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $39.5K vol

95%
NM-03

NM-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $22K vol

93%
NV-01

NV-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NV-02

NV-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NY-01

NY-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.2K vol

70%
NY-02

NY-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NY-03

NY-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $24.2K vol

93%
NY-05

NY-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $62.2K vol

97%
NY-06

NY-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $21.6K vol

95%
NY-07

NY-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NY-08

NY-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NY-09

NY-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $56K vol

95%
NY-11

NY-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $25.5K vol

93%
NY-15

NY-15 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

NY-18

NY-18 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $40.2K vol

91%
NY-19

NY-19 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $14.1K vol

93%
NY-21

NY-21 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $56.3K vol

73%
NY-22

NY-22 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $21.8K vol

92%
NY-24

NY-24 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $20.5K vol

93%
NY-25

NY-25 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $33.1K vol

95%
OH-01

OH-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $16.4K vol

92%
OH-03

OH-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $57.8K vol

95%
OH-04

OH-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OH-05

OH-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $45.8K vol

94%
OH-06

OH-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $65.4K vol

95%
OH-07

OH-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $44.5K vol

83%
OH-10

OH-10 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OH-11

OH-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $37.2K vol

98%
OH-12

OH-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OH-13

OH-13 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OH-14

OH-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $42.7K vol

94%
OK-01

OK-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OK-03

OK-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $100.4K vol

94%
OK-04

OK-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OR-03

OR-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $20K vol

96%
OR-04

OR-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

OR-05

OR-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

PA-02

PA-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $35.6K vol

95%
PA-03

PA-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

PA-05

PA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

PA-06

PA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $25.5K vol

96%
PA-07

PA-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $25.9K vol

79%
PA-08

PA-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $4.2K vol

55%
PA-11

PA-11 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $14.3K vol

90%
PA-14

PA-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $24.7K vol

95%
PA-15

PA-15 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

PA-16

PA-16 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.9K vol

92%
PA-17

PA-17 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $13.6K vol

90%
RI-01

RI-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $31.4K vol

96%
RI-02

RI-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $34.8K vol

95%
SC-01

SC-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

SC-03

SC-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $43.2K vol

94%
SC-04

SC-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

SC-05

SC-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $9.3K vol

91%
SC-07

SC-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $33.7K vol

96%
TN-02

TN-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TN-03

TN-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $34.9K vol

94%
TN-04

TN-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TN-05

TN-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $48K vol

93%
TN-06

TN-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TN-07

TN-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $17.2K vol

89%
TN-08

TN-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TN-09

TN-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $40.4K vol

90%
TX-01

TX-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $42.3K vol

95%
TX-02

TX-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $23.4K vol

92%
TX-03

TX-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $32.3K vol

93%
TX-04

TX-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.5K vol

95%
TX-05

TX-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $28.9K vol

92%
TX-06

TX-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $47.8K vol

93%
TX-09

TX-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $15.2K vol

86%
TX-10

TX-10 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TX-12

TX-12 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $33K vol

94%
TX-14

TX-14 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $23K vol

95%
TX-15

TX-15 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $9.1K vol

57%
TX-16

TX-16 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $19.3K vol

95%
TX-17

TX-17 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $45.7K vol

94%
TX-18

TX-18 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $12.5K vol

96%
TX-19

TX-19 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $22.7K vol

96%
TX-20

TX-20 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $24.6K vol

94%
TX-21

TX-21 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

TX-22

TX-22 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $25.8K vol

91%
TX-24

TX-24 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $56K vol

84%
TX-25

TX-25 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $13.4K vol

89%
TX-26

TX-26 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $27.5K vol

91%
TX-27

TX-27 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $36.2K vol

92%
TX-29

TX-29 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $9.5K vol

95%
TX-30

TX-30 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $47.1K vol

96%
TX-31

TX-31 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $44.8K vol

94%
TX-33

TX-33 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $8.9K vol

95%
TX-35

TX-35 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $8.3K vol

57%
TX-38

TX-38 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

UT-01

UT-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $41.2K vol

95%
UT-02

UT-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $15.8K vol

95%
UT-03

UT-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $12.3K vol

95%
UT-04

UT-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $40K vol

95%
VA-02

VA-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $40.8K vol

82%
VA-03

VA-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $60.6K vol

95%
VA-04

VA-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $40.8K vol

95%
VA-05

VA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $62K vol

85%
VA-06

VA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $110.2K vol

90%
VA-07

VA-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $12.2K vol

93%
VA-08

VA-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $40.3K vol

96%
VA-09

VA-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $65.4K vol

95%
WA-01

WA-01 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $43.4K vol

95%
WA-02

WA-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

WA-03

WA-03 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $32.8K vol

85%
WA-04

WA-04 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $50.3K vol

90%
WA-05

WA-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $49.3K vol

76%
WA-06

WA-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $37.9K vol

95%
WA-07

WA-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

WA-08

WA-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $21.3K vol

96%
WA-09

WA-09 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $49.5K vol

95%
WA-10

WA-10 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $30.6K vol

95%
WI-02

WI-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Democratic Party · Polymarket · $99.8K vol

95%
WI-05

WI-05 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $54.7K vol

93%
WI-06

WI-06 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $35.2K vol

90%
WI-07

WI-07 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $39.2K vol

91%
WI-08

WI-08 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $17.9K vol

88%
WV-02

WV-02 House Election Winner — Odds & Probability

Republican Party · Polymarket · $92K vol

96%

Primaries & nominations

40 markets
MaineSettled

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27? — Odds

MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County

Final read: Haley Stevens · Polymarket · $58.2K vol

97%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County

Final read: Haley Stevens · Polymarket · $86.3K vol

99%
KansasSettled

Kansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Cindy Holscher · Polymarket · $114.7K vol

91%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County

Final read: Haley Stevens · Polymarket · $77.4K vol

97%
KansasSettled

Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Adam Hamilton · Polymarket · $176K vol

98%
KansasSettled

Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Ty Masterson · Polymarket · $135.7K vol

94%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: John James · Polymarket · $235.2K vol

97%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Final read: El-Sayed <5% · Polymarket · $202.5K vol

99%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket · $4.3M vol

99%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Macomb County Winner

Final read: Haley Stevens · Polymarket · $63.8K vol

98%
MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Kent County (Grand

MichiganSettled

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County

Final read: Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket · $13.6K vol

99%
TennesseeSettled

Tennessee Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Marsha Blackburn · Polymarket · $82.3K vol

95%
TennesseeSettled

Tennessee Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Odds

TennesseeSettled

Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Marquita Bradshaw · Polymarket · $38.4K vol

93%
VermontSettled

Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Amanda Janoo · Polymarket · $123.6K vol

99%
MinnesotaSettled

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Peggy Flanagan · Polymarket · $450.9K vol

99%
MinnesotaSettled

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Lisa Demuth · Polymarket · $849.6K vol

99%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Final read: Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket · $1.5M vol

72%
WisconsinSettled

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: David Crowley · Polymarket · $3.4M vol

99%
WisconsinSettled

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Final read: Crowley wins · Polymarket · $196.9K vol

99%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First

Final read: Ralph Norman · Polymarket · $92.5K vol

99%
MinnesotaSettled

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Final read: Flanagan 20%+ · Polymarket · $45.7K vol

46%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First

Final read: Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket · $611.3K vol

99%
AlaskaSettled

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Final read: Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket · $269K vol

97%
FloridaSettled

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Angie Nixon · Polymarket · $262.3K vol

99%
WyomingSettled

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Joseph Kibler · Polymarket · $419.5K vol

1%
AlaskaSettled

Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

Final read: Peltola 6–9% · Polymarket · $19.8K vol

50%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Final read: Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket · $3.1M vol

66%
OklahomaSettled

Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Troy Green · Polymarket · $133.8K vol

1%
OklahomaSettled

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Gentner Drummond · Polymarket · $999.2K vol

1%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary

Final read: Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket · $21.8K vol

92%
South CarolinaSettled

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary

Final read: Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket · $33.8K vol

99%
MassachusettsSettled

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Final read: Ed Markey · Polymarket · $161.2K vol

99%
MassachusettsSettled

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of

Final read: Markey 25–30% · Polymarket · $11.8K vol

75%
Rhode Island

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner — Odds

Elaine Pelino · Polymarket · $54.3K vol

93%
Rhode Island

Rhode Island Governor Democratic Primary Winner — Odds

Helena Foulkes · Polymarket · $47.7K vol

99%
New Hampshire

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Odds

Chris Pappas · Polymarket · $158.3K vol

96%
Alaska

Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round? — Odds

Mary Peltola · Polymarket · $89.4K vol

99%

More midterm markets

6 markets

Answers

Frequently asked questions

Who will win the Senate in 2026?

The September 5, 2026 capture gives Democratic Party a 52% implied probability of Senate control on Polymarket, with $4.1M in venue-reported volume. That is a dated market observation, not a forecast or current executable quote.

Who will win the House in 2026?

The September 5, 2026 capture implies a 88% chance for Democratic Party on Polymarket, with $10.1M in venue-reported volume.

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships are on the ballot.

How accurate are prediction markets for elections?

Prediction markets can respond quickly to new public information, but they can be wrong, especially on thin volume. W.E.T. retains dated and final venue observations when available, so the record can later be compared with what happened.

Explore W.E.T.

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W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Implied probabilities are dated venue observations, not current executable quotes, forecasts, or advice. Prediction markets may be restricted in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+.