Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index
v3SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Stable → Turmoil)
How much political instability (resignations, shutdowns, ousters) the market is pricing.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 803.12
- Since inception
- −19.69%
- Cost to cross
- 0.58pts
- Holdings marked
- 69.2% of 12
- 1 day
- −4.24%
- 7 day
- −1.06%
- Markets held
- 12
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 70.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 12 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028kalshi · YES · entry 61c3 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 22.2k/9.1k within 5¢kalshiYES61c64c+5.0%10.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 340.5k/26.7k within 5¢polymarketYES4c1c−71.4%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 7.7k/6.4k within 5¢polymarketYES24c1c−95.7%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 13c4.0¢ spread · 7.2k/2.0k within 5¢polymarketYES13c8c−38.5%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c0.6¢ spread · 52.3k/5.2k within 5¢polymarketYES8c2c−74.7%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.4¢ spread · 30.3k/11.1k within 5¢polymarketYES4c2c−42.7%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 27c1.0¢ spread · 143/378 within 5¢polymarketYES27c17c−37.0%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump resign before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.5¢ spread · 342.5k/8.7k within 5¢polymarketYES4c2c−52.0%6.7%Polymarket ↗
- Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 5c2.0¢ spread · 67.3k/4.3k within 5¢polymarketYES5c6c+24.0%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c46 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−57.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8c5 sessions stale4.0¢ spread · 2.5k/100 within 5¢polymarketYES8c10c+18.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c4.0¢ spread · 1.1k/66 within 5¢polymarketYES3c22c+548.5%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 49d Range
- 2062
- Percentile
- 4th
- 8d Change
- −2.5
- Volatility
- 6.1 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 12
- Effective N
- 6.0
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 1 K · 11 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 12/12
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.8953
Daily close
49d published · interactive49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Stable → Turmoil). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.03/day, projection σ 7.2 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 12 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 12 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, will Americans trust their government more or less?
More — trust starts to recoverLess — trust keeps falling
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WPTI · at a glance
- What it is
- The instability gauge — how much political upheaval the market is pricing.
- High vs low
- Higher = more instability events priced (resignations, shutdowns, ousters). Lower = calm.
- Who cares
- Political reporters and analysts tracking resignation, shutdown, and leadership-change odds.
Embed this score
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The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index (WPTI) prints a WET Index Score of 24.0/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.