W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index
v3SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 10, 2026 · last moved Aug 30, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Stable → Turmoil)
How much political instability (resignations, shutdowns, ousters) the market is pricing.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 967.77
- Since inception
- −3.22%
- Cost to cross
- 1.04pts
- Holdings marked
- 92.3% of 13
- 1 day
- +0.15%
- 7 day
- +1.63%
- Markets held
- 13
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 37
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 13 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028kalshi · YES · entry 61c2.0¢ spread · 3.5k/6.0k within 5¢kalshiYES61c60c−0.8%10.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 161.5k/32.6k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−17.9%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?polymarket · YES · entry 24c1.0¢ spread · 7.4k/5.0k within 5¢polymarketYES24c24c0.0%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 13c1.0¢ spread · 8.3k/681 within 5¢polymarketYES13c14c+11.5%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c0.3¢ spread · 36.3k/4.3k within 5¢polymarketYES8c4c−51.3%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 86c0.3¢ spread · 59.3k/6.4k within 5¢polymarketYES86c85c−0.3%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 31.3k/11.1k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−21.3%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 27c13.0¢ spread · 136/379 within 5¢polymarketYES27c36c+31.5%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump resign before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 308.8k/3.0k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−13.3%6.7%Polymarket ↗
- Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 5c2.0¢ spread · 76.5k/4.2k within 5¢polymarketYES5c6c+22.0%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c1c−57.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8c8.0¢ spread · 98/30 within 5¢polymarketYES8c15c+87.5%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Lai Ching-te impeached by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3c3.9¢ spread · 1.3k/63 within 5¢polymarketYES3c3c−10.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 27.70
- Band
- Low
- 39d Range
- 2062
- Percentile
- 72th
- 7d Change
- +0.3
- Volatility
- 6.9 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 12
- Effective N
- 6.0
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 1 K · 11 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 12/12
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.9892
Daily close
39d published · interactive39 published close(s) — 0–100 (Stable → Turmoil). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 39d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 39 readings, slope -0.10/day, projection σ 7.9 pts/d widened for a 39-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 12 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-10) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 12 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Where does institutional trust go?
Institutions regain groundTrust keeps eroding
WPTI · at a glance
- What it is
- The instability gauge — how much political upheaval the market is pricing.
- High vs low
- Higher = more instability events priced (resignations, shutdowns, ousters). Lower = calm.
- Who cares
- Political reporters and analysts tracking resignation, shutdown, and leadership-change odds.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 10, 2026, the W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index (WPTI) prints a WET Index Score of 27.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.