Crypto Greed & Fear
WCGFW.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Index
How greedy vs fearful crypto positioning is, read from priced upside vs downside.
Higher = greedy (upside targets richly priced). Lower = fearful. ~50 = neutral.
History · 1 day
Computed from 7 markets (effective 4.4) · 0 Kalshi / 7 Polymarket · $16.1M vol · top holding 25%
The desk read
Fell 3.1 to 44.0 (Moderate).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?
50% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
64% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
4% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
61% · 20% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Solana reach $80 in July?
68% · 3% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?
18% · 2% wt · polymarket
WCGF · at a glance
- What it is
- The greed gauge for crypto — read from priced upside vs downside targets.
- High vs low
- Higher = greedy (upside targets richly priced). Lower = fearful. ~50 = neutral.
- Who cares
- Crypto traders and reporters who know the classic Fear & Greed index but want a prediction-market-native read.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 50% | 25.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | polymarket | 64% | 25.0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | polymarket | 4% | 25.0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? | polymarket | 61% | 20.3% |
| Will Solana reach $80 in July? | polymarket | 68% | 3.3% |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? | polymarket | 18% | 1.5% |
| Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027? | polymarket | 27% | 0.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Index (WCGF) reads 44.0/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.