W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Index
v4SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Sep 3, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Fear → Greed)
How greedy vs fearful crypto positioning is, read from priced upside vs downside.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1220.97
- Since inception
- +22.10%
- Cost to cross
- 1.38pts
- Holdings marked
- 90.3% of 31
- 1 day
- +0.51%
- 7 day
- +0.32%
- Markets held
- 31
- Settled
- 5
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 100.0% (5 of 5)
- Cash
- 53.2%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 32
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 31 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c−1.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 32c1.0¢ spread · 4.6k/2.6k within 5¢polymarketYES32c26c−19.0%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? — Above $99,999.99kalshi · YES · entry 13ckalshiYES13c28c+128.0%6.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c1.4¢ spread · 102.7k/505 within 5¢polymarketYES4c5c+40.8%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 77c4.0¢ spread · 841/170 within 5¢polymarketYES77c60c−22.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM? — Above $3,500.00kalshi · YES · entry 14ckalshiYES14c27c+82.8%6.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c2.0¢ spread · 14.2k/4.2k within 5¢polymarketYES7c9c+38.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 56c5.0¢ spread · 775/1.1k within 5¢polymarketYES56c83c+46.0%5.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c21c+272.7%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 42c3.0¢ spread · 214/710 within 5¢polymarketYES42c37c−12.0%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?polymarket · YES · entry 53c2.0¢ spread · 70/6.3k within 5¢polymarketYES53c34c−35.2%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?polymarket · YES · entry 76c0.1¢ spread · 245/1.3k within 5¢polymarketYES76c42c−44.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c10c−20.8%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 34cpolymarketYES34c43c+26.9%2.5%Polymarket ↗
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c1.0¢ spread · 13.5k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketYES8c8c−6.3%2.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c7c−46.2%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 32c1.0¢ spread · 2.7k/15.9k within 5¢polymarketYES32c78c+146.0%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c7c−41.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 71c1.0¢ spread · 898/682 within 5¢polymarketYES71c80c+12.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 61c2.0¢ spread · 2.9k/2.0k within 5¢polymarketYES61c59c−2.5%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c3.0¢ spread · 420/5.3k within 5¢polymarketYES11c26c+142.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c10.8¢ spread · 3.6k/10 within 5¢polymarketYES10c15c+57.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?polymarket · YES · entry 17cpolymarketYES17c7c−58.2%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c13.0¢ spread · 25/83 within 5¢polymarketYES37c86c+134.2%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c14c−38.3%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c10.0¢ spread · 172/516 within 5¢polymarketYES15c15c0.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch?polymarket · YES · entry 11c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c9c−19.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Ledger IPO closing market cap above $1B?polymarket · YES · entry 39c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c27c−31.6%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c8c+13.6%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?polymarket · YES · entry 10c28 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c10c0.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will LAB reach $20 before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c4c−63.8%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 41.40
- Band
- Moderate
- 34d Range
- 2065
- Percentile
- 88th
- 7d Change
- +20.4
- Volatility
- 10.6 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 27
- Effective N
- 7.9
- Top Weight
- 21%
- Venues
- 27 P
- Method
- v4
- Basket
- 27/30
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×0.8347
Daily close
34d published · interactive34 published close(s) — 0–100 (Fear → Greed). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 34d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 34 readings, slope -0.05/day, projection σ 12.3 pts/d widened for a 34-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 27 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
4 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Does crypto become infrastructure?
Stays a speculative nicheBecomes market plumbingIs crypto running hot again?
Positioning stays measuredAnother mania buildsDoes the crypto cycle broaden?
Bitcoin dominance holdsAlt season returns
WCGF · at a glance
- What it is
- The greed gauge for crypto — read from priced upside vs downside targets.
- High vs low
- Higher = greedy (upside targets richly priced). Lower = fearful. ~50 = neutral.
- Who cares
- Crypto traders and reporters who know the classic Fear & Greed index but want a prediction-market-native read.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. Crypto Greed & Fear Index (WCGF) prints a WET Index Score of 41.5/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.