Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →
1 behind

1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WINC2

W.E.T. Inverse Increase Economics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
934.5247
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
63.74
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
6.8205e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
18
latest 2026-09-09
The opposing reading

increase-economics-inside-six-months reads 36.26 against this index’s 63.74. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
9 of 9 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 21. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11604, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 27.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 27 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 11604 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 12 of 21 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 9, below-min-volume 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 9 of 9 members and holding 0 of them NO. 9 of 9 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 8 prior member(s), of which 1 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 1 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.003955026 against a gauge basis of 0.637395716; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec c9ac09f9810dc6f3 · methodology ceab103d66329205 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

63.74Stale · 1 close behindElevated & cooling, volatile

As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low supportHigh support)

The same 10 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

Basket level · official print26 held · close 2026-09-10
974.48−2.55%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
974.48
Since inception
−2.55%
Cost to cross
Holdings marked
61.5% of 26
1 day
−0.14%
7 day
−0.48%
Markets held
26
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
Cash
51.3%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
20

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 26 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 80c77c−4.4%
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 77c70c−9.2%
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 76c56c−25.2%
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 96c99c+3.6%
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 98c98c+0.4%
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 92c86c−6.6%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85c4 sessions stale86c+0.6%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 46c4 sessions stale49c+7.7%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 12c4 sessions stale17c+37.5%
  • Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 94c87c−7.3%
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 47c1.0¢ spread · 200/494 within 5¢32c−32.3%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 68c4 sessions stale74c+8.9%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 86c4 sessions stale84c−2.3%
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 77c85c+11.1%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 14c4 sessions stale14c−3.6%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 25c4 sessions stale23c−8.2%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 37c4 sessions stale34c−6.8%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 47c4 sessions stale45c−4.3%
  • Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 94c98c+3.6%
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 53c70c+32.1%
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 51c0.1¢ spread · 195/259 within 5¢50c−3.0%
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 90c61c−32.4%
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 57c89c+53.9%
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 55c55c−0.9%
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 82c69c−15.4%
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 28c4 sessions stale26c−10.5%

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+202.38index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2202.38 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.12 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
Band
Elevated
18d Range
6484
Percentile
6th
10d Change
19.5
Volatility
4.0 pts/d
Streak
Markets
9
Effective N
8.0
Top Weight
15%
Venues
9 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

150 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed close
62.064.066.068.070.072.074.009-04 00:0009-07 06:0009-10 12:00
Latest
61.36
Since 2026-09-04
12.55
Range
61.473.9
Readings
111+39 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

18d published · interactive

18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
30405060708090now60
Projected 14d
59.70
Change
4.00
80% band
3485
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.59/day, projection σ 5.3 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

WINC2 · at a glance

What it is
The same 10 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Increase Economics Index 6mo (WINC2) prints a WET Index Score of 63.7/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.