WMIAM

W.E.T. Miami Football Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
1067.4200
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
18.63
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
1.7449e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
The opposing reading

miami-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 81.37 against this index’s 18.63. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
10 of 10 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The board stops listing markets that name Miami's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A Miami club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (9)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 22. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4298, keyword-miss 12198, category-not-admitted 5, horizon-unknown 1, horizon-outside-window 6.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 6 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 1 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 12198 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • 4298 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
  • eligibility: 12 of 22 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 5, price-below-floor 4, spread-too-wide 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 6 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. 6 of 6 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 7 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.694297519 against a gauge basis of 0.186252756; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
  • the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-11-05, 1 close(s) ago, and 1 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 7-member composition of 2026-11-05 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 31eda23f2a5c7493 · methodology ad60cc429a210338 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

18.63No 1d changeVery low & climbing, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

10 sports markets naming Miami Dolphins, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print12 held · close 2026-11-14
900.39−9.96%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
900.39
Since inception
−9.96%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
66.7% of 12
1 day
−1.39%
7 day
−9.11%
Markets held
12
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
55.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 12 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Miami Dolphins win the 2026 AFC Eastpolymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−58.3%↗
  • Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 8c10c+23.4%↗
  • Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 68c64c−5.9%↗
  • College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Miami (FL)gemini · YES · entry 74c11 sessions stale92c+25.2%↗
  • Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−79.4%↗
  • College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Miami (OH)gemini · YES · entry 8c24 sessions stale5c−40.0%↗
  • AFC Championship Winner — Miamigemini · YES · entry 3c15 sessions stale2c−40.0%↗
  • Will the Patriots win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 67c61c−9.0%↗
  • Will the Dolphins win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 4c6c+54.2%↗
  • Will Miami Dolphins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · YES · entry 4c3c−24.4%↗
  • Will the season series between the Dolphins and Patriots end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 31c29c−6.5%↗
  • College Football National Championship Winner — Miami (FL)gemini · YES · entry 7c15 sessions stale11c+50.0%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+0.28index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2000.28 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.87 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Very low
21d Range
933
Percentile
38th
9d Change
+9.9
Volatility
7.8 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
10
Effective N
7.5
Top Weight
15%
Venues
10 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 6 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed close
10.015.020.025.030.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
18.67
Since 2026-10-22
+7.64
Range
8.4–28.0
Readings
55+42 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

21d published · interactive

21 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 72 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 21d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
010203040506070now17
Projected 14d
17.00
Change
−1.60
80% band
0–64
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 21 readings, slope -0.23/day, projection σ 9.8 pts/d widened for a 21-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

WMIAM · at a glance

What it is
10 sports markets naming Miami Dolphins, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how miami-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Miami Football Index 6mo (WMIAM) prints a WET Index Score of 18.6/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.