W.E.T. San Francisco Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingsan-francisco-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 39.22 against this index’s 60.78. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name San Francisco's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A San Francisco club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (8)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 14. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4307, keyword-miss 12201, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 7. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 7 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12201 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4307 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 6 of 14 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 3, price-below-floor 1, below-min-volume 1, price-above-ceiling 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 4 of 8 members and holding 0 of them NO. 4 of 4 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 8 prior member(s), of which 0 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 0 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.001441406 against a gauge basis of 0.607779396; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 11bfb658e20e8a6e · methodology ed6f5c4e13b0a9e0 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
8 sports markets naming San Francisco 49ers, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +73.7% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +148.4% — a 75-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 45.5% of 11
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 8c1.0¢ spread · 119.4k/6.5k within 5¢polymarketYES8c28c+280.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2026 NFC West?polymarket · YES · entry 22c1.0¢ spread · 31.3k/1.6k within 5¢polymarketYES22c81c+274.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 5c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c5c+3.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- NFC Championship Winner — San Franciscogemini · YES · entry 9c15 sessions stalegeminiYES9c19c+117.6%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- 2027 Pro Football Champion — San Franciscogemini · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stalegeminiYES5c11c+133.3%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Seahawks win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 35c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES35c24c−31.9%9.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will San Francisco 49ers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c14c+370.0%5.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 60cpolymarketYES60c53c−11.7%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the 49ers win the season series against the Rams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 14c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c45c+229.3%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the 49ers and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 39c30 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c47c+22.1%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c34c+32.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2438.88 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.43 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- 57.34
- Band
- Elevated
- 36d Range
- 1463
- Percentile
- 92th
- 9d Change
- −0.4
- Volatility
- 6.4 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 8
- Effective N
- 7.1
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 8 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
36d published · interactive36 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 57 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 36d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 36 readings, slope +0.53/day, projection σ 7.4 pts/d widened for a 36-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 8 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWSANF · at a glance
- What it is
- 8 sports markets naming San Francisco 49ers, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how san-francisco-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. San Francisco Football Index 6mo (WSANF) prints a WET Index Score of 60.8/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.