Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Climate & Disaster Risk Index
v4SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Benign → Extreme)
How much extreme-weather / disaster risk the market is pricing this season.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 824.32
- Since inception
- −17.57%
- Cost to cross
- 2.51pts
- Holdings marked
- 72.7% of 11
- 1 day
- −1.15%
- 7 day
- −5.64%
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 72.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 25c4.0¢ spread · 246/166 within 5¢polymarketYES25c4c−83.7%13.2%Polymarket ↗
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c0.4¢ spread · 185.5k/1.2k within 5¢polymarketYES6c3c−57.8%13.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 46c19.0¢ spread · 88/247 within 5¢polymarketYES46c44c−5.4%13.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.3¢ spread · 9.1k/594 within 5¢polymarketYES10c3c−73.5%13.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 87c3.0¢ spread · 1.0k/724 within 5¢polymarketYES87c93c+6.3%12.0%Polymarket ↗
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c2.3¢ spread · 88.6k/513 within 5¢polymarketYES11c3c−75.8%9.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?polymarket · YES · entry 85c1.7¢ spread · 2.1k/4.0k within 5¢polymarketYES85c99c+16.2%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c1c−88.4%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4c4.2¢ spread · 5.0k/622 within 5¢polymarketYES4c5c+34.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?polymarket · YES · entry 47c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES47c51c+7.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?polymarket · YES · entry 17c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c2c−89.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 49d Range
- 2345
- Percentile
- 59th
- 8d Change
- +4.0
- Volatility
- 5.1 pts/d
- Streak
- 3d up
- Markets
- 15
- Effective N
- 4.9
- Top Weight
- 29%
- Venues
- 15 P
- Method
- v4
- Basket
- 15/16
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.5939
Daily close
49d published · interactive49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Benign → Extreme). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.08/day, projection σ 4.9 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 15 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 3 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
By the end of 2027, will the switch to clean energy speed up or slow down?
Slow down — fossil fuels hold their groundSpeed up — clean power grows fasterWill the 2027 hurricane season be calmer or more severe than usual?
Calmer than usualMore severe than usualOver the next two years, will the power grid keep up with rising demand?
Supply keeps upShortages and price spikes
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WCDR · at a glance
- What it is
- The extreme-weather gauge — how much disaster risk the season is pricing.
- High vs low
- Higher = more record-heat / major-storm / disaster risk priced. Lower = benign.
- Who cares
- Weather desks, insurers, and anyone tracking whether the market sees a dangerous season ahead.
Embed this score
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The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/climate-risk)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/climate-risk"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/climate-risk/badge" alt="WCDR — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/climate-risk" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WCDR — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Climate & Disaster Risk Index (WCDR) prints a WET Index Score of 30.9/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.