Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WINCR

W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
1409.4389
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
35.74
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
2.5354e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
The opposing reading

increase-economics-inside-six-months-inverse reads 64.26 against this index’s 35.74. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
15 of 15 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 29. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9334, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 39.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 39 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9334 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 14 of 29 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 10, below-min-volume 3, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 15 of 15 members and holding 0 of them NO. 15 of 15 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 14 prior member(s), of which 1 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 1 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.980268035 against a gauge basis of 0.357352700; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec b28e4975f16580fb · methodology 87734e6ce7e9ed20 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

35.74Stale · 5 closes behindLow & steady, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

15 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

No level published for this basket

No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +51.7% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +118.2% — a 67-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.

Basket level · official print26 held · close 2026-09-25
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
61.5% of 26
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
26
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
—
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
0

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 26 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20c32c+57.5%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c67c+183.0%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25c72c+191.8%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−71.1%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c3c+18.2%↗
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c26c+200.0%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 15c35c+130.0%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 55c6 sessions stale69c+26.6%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 88c92c+4.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6c47c+710.3%↗
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 54c4.0¢ spread · 124/116 within 5¢57c+7.5%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 33c53c+61.5%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 14c18c+25.0%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c19c−21.3%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 86c6 sessions stale90c+4.7%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 76c78c+2.6%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64c6 sessions stale77c+20.5%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 53c56c+4.7%↗
  • Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6c16c+167.8%↗
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c22c−54.3%↗
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 49c0.1¢ spread · 358/251 within 5¢60c+23.2%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 11c81c+671.4%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43c56c+32.9%↗
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 45c34c−25.6%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 19c28c+52.2%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 72c90c+25.2%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+284.90index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2284.90 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 2.05 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Low
28d Range
1642
Percentile
71th
8d Change
−6.4
Volatility
3.8 pts/d
Streak
3d down
Markets
15
Effective N
10.0
Top Weight
15%
Venues
15 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed close
28.030.032.034.036.038.009-22 00:0009-25 05:0009-28 09:00
Latest
34.44
Since 2026-09-22
−2.27
Range
27.5–37.8
Readings
105+28 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

28d published · interactive

28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
102030405060now40
Projected 14d
40.30
Change
+4.60
80% band
18–62
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope +0.65/day, projection σ 4.6 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
🔒

Premium

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
🔒

Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 15

Constituents by weight

all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set

Where these markets are covered

1 of 15 constituents has a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WINCR · at a glance

What it is
15 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 6mo (WINCR) prints a WET Index Score of 35.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.