WINCR

W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
2169.7730
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
37.74
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
1.7395e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
The opposing reading

increase-economics-inside-six-months-inverse reads 62.26 against this index’s 37.74. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
55 of 55 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "increase" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 78. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16402, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 49.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 49 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 16402 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 23 of 78 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 19, spread-too-wide 2, below-min-volume 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 55 of 55 members and holding 0 of them NO. 55 of 55 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 49 prior member(s), of which 4 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 4 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.973184921 against a gauge basis of 0.377426230; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec b28e4975f16580fb · methodology 87734e6ce7e9ed20 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

37.74−3.60 (−8.71%)Low & climbing, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

55 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

No level published for this basket

No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +35.9% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +75.4% — a 39-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.

Basket level · official print26 held · close 2026-11-14
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
42.3% of 26
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
26
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
—
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
0

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 26 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20c57c+187.5%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stale17c−29.8%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25c1.0¢ spread · 279.2k/2329.4k within 5¢88c+257.1%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stale1c−77.8%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−43.2%↗
  • Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c15 sessions stale8c−11.8%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 15c16 sessions stale21c+40.0%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 55c16 sessions stale80c+46.8%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 88c20 sessions stale95c+8.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stale31c+426.7%↗
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 54c3.0¢ spread · 106/769 within 5¢92c+71.0%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 33c16 sessions stale38c+16.9%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 14c31c+121.4%↗
  • Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stale12c−51.1%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 86c96c+11.0%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 76c93c+22.5%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64c2 sessions stale90c+40.9%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 53c79c+49.1%↗
  • Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stale4c−32.2%↗
  • Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c3c−94.6%↗
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 49c4.1¢ spread · 1.5k/484 within 5¢63c+29.8%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 11c15 sessions stale84c+700.0%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43c15 sessions stale68c+58.8%↗
  • Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 45c34c−23.9%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 19c15 sessions stale8c−57.6%↗
  • Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 72c20 sessions stale90c+25.2%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
+865.18index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2865.18 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 3.43 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
41.32
Band
Low
53d Range
1648
Percentile
66th
9d Change
+8.5
Volatility
5.1 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
55
Effective N
20.0
Top Weight
15%
Venues
12 K · 43 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 5 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed close
24.026.028.030.032.034.036.038.040.042.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
37.28
Since 2026-10-22
−3.99
Range
25.1–41.3
Readings
27+70 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

53d published · interactive

53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
10203040506070now39
Projected 14d
38.50
Change
+0.80
80% band
10–67
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.12/day, projection σ 6.0 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 55

Constituents by weight

all 55 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 35 holdings

Where these markets are covered

1 of 55 constituents has a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WINCR · at a glance

What it is
55 economics markets carrying the "increase" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how increase is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Increase Economics Index 6mo (WINCR) prints a WET Index Score of 37.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.