WAWD

W.E.T. Awards Race Index

v1SlateMonthly
43.40+0.80 (+1.88%)Moderate & cooling

As of Sep 10, 2026 · last moved Sep 10, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Front-runnerWide open)

How wide-open the awards races are on a season-long clock.

Basket level · official print33 held · close 2026-09-10
924.06−7.59%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
924.06
Since inception
−7.59%
Cost to cross
0.57pts
Holdings marked
72.7% of 33
1 day
−0.45%
7 day
−1.11%
Markets held
33
Settled
3
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
Cash
55.0%
Inception
2026-08-01
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
37

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 33 markets

held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?polymarket · YES · entry 54c0.1¢ spread · 85.1k/39.4k within 5¢62c+16.4%
  • Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 88c1.0¢ spread · 112.1k/474.1k within 5¢94c+6.9%
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 3.2k/9.7k within 5¢86c+14.8%
  • Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 14.6k/3.4k within 5¢8c−21.1%
  • Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?polymarket · YES · entry 62c29c−52.9%
  • Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64c56c−12.6%
  • Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 59c4c−93.4%
  • Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026gemini · YES · entry 26c4 sessions stale7c−73.1%
  • Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.6¢ spread · 42.1k/8.0k within 5¢4c−10.1%
  • Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 41c0.1¢ spread · 1.5k/1.5k within 5¢73c+77.0%
  • Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?polymarket · YES · entry 63c1.8¢ spread · 7.6k/2.1k within 5¢89c+40.6%
  • Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 77c1.0¢ spread · 5.3k/6.5k within 5¢80c+3.9%
  • Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 75c3.0¢ spread · 1.3k/1.2k within 5¢83c+10.7%
  • Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c14c+38.1%
  • Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 13.9k/23.7k within 5¢85c+6.3%
  • Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 81c1.2¢ spread · 2.2k/8.3k within 5¢93c+15.3%
  • Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?polymarket · YES · entry 28c4 sessions stale6c−79.6%
  • Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 60c3c−94.7%
  • Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?polymarket · YES · entry 52c2.0¢ spread · 968/503 within 5¢59c+13.5%
  • Will HBO Max win the most Emmys?polymarket · YES · entry 67c0.4¢ spread · 6.0k/280 within 5¢2c−96.5%
  • Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?polymarket · YES · entry 71c2.0¢ spread · 919/701 within 5¢74c+4.2%
  • Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 19c33 sessions stale19c+2.7%
  • Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?polymarket · YES · entry 55c3.0¢ spread · 2.0k/2.6k within 5¢80c+45.9%
  • Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7c33 sessions stale8c+16.8%
  • Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?polymarket · YES · entry 81c2 sessions stale99c+22.2%
  • Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 97c97c+0.1%
  • Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 50c1.0¢ spread · 5.6k/13.8k within 5¢50c0.0%
  • Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 50c33 sessions stale23c−54.0%
  • Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 28c33 sessions stale22c−21.4%
  • Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?polymarket · YES · entry 92c3.0¢ spread · 820/9.2k within 5¢95c+3.7%
  • Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c33 sessions stale17c+13.3%
  • Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64c53c−16.5%
  • Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stale9c−4.8%

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews
Previous
42.60
Band
Moderate
30d Range
4256
Percentile
27th
7d Change
2.8
Volatility
1.4 pts/d
Streak
2d up
Markets
32
Effective N
9.5
Top Weight
20%
Venues
32 P
Method
v1
Basket
32/36
Frozen
2026-09-01
Chain
×1.0188

Daily close

30d published · interactive

30 published close(s) — 0–100 (Front-runner → Wide open). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 30d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
303540455055now41
Projected 14d
41.00
Change
2.40
80% band
3349
Confidence
moderate

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 30 readings, slope -0.35/day, projection σ 1.6 pts/d widened for a 30-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

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What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

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Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
culture100% · 32

Constituents by weight

top 24 of 32 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-10) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 4 holdings

Where these markets are covered

21 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The view this index measures

Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.

  • Who owns the narrative next?

    Legacy media holds the centerCreators take the narrative
  • Do the awards races stay predictable?

    Favorites sweepUpsets rule the season

WAWD · at a glance

What it is
The awards-season toss-up gauge — how open the trophy races are.
High vs low
Higher = no clear front-runner. Lower = the race is settled.
Who cares
Entertainment desks tracking whether awards season has a front-runner or a fight.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 10, 2026, the W.E.T. Awards Race Index (WAWD) prints a WET Index Score of 43.4/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

Full methodology →JSONLive intradayDaily report

Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.