Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Awards Race Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 21, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Front-runner → Wide open)
How wide-open the awards races are on a season-long clock.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 918.88
- Since inception
- −8.11%
- Cost to cross
- 0.43pts
- Holdings marked
- 53.6% of 28
- 1 day
- −0.36%
- 7 day
- +0.39%
- Markets held
- 28
- Settled
- 8
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 37.5% (3 of 8)
- Cash
- 57.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 28 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?polymarket · YES · entry 54c10 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 95.9k/21.0k within 5¢polymarketYES54c77c+43.0%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 88c1.0¢ spread · 58.2k/445.0k within 5¢polymarketYES88c94c+6.9%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 6.3k/6.7k within 5¢polymarketYES75c89c+19.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c13 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 26.5k/12.0k within 5¢polymarketYES10c5c−50.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c28c−53.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64cpolymarketYES64c36c−43.3%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 59cpolymarketYES59c1c−98.3%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) — Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026gemini · YES · entry 26c19 sessions stalegeminiYES26c13c−51.9%5.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?polymarket · YES · entry 4c0.1¢ spread · 69.8k/4.1k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−33.7%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 41c0.3¢ spread · 2.9k/7.7k within 5¢polymarketYES41c95c+131.9%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?polymarket · YES · entry 63c2.4¢ spread · 12/9.1k within 5¢polymarketYES63c99c+56.2%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 77c1.0¢ spread · 3.0k/2.4k within 5¢polymarketYES77c88c+15.0%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 75c1.0¢ spread · 719/2.1k within 5¢polymarketYES75c97c+30.8%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 11c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c17c+61.9%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 19.4k/12.7k within 5¢polymarketYES80c86c+7.5%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?polymarket · YES · entry 81c0.8¢ spread · 4.8k/7.2k within 5¢polymarketYES81c97c+20.3%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?polymarket · YES · entry 28c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c6c−79.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 60cpolymarketYES60c1c−98.3%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 19c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES19c19c+2.7%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 7c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c8c+16.8%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?polymarket · YES · entry 81c35 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c99c+22.2%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?polymarket · YES · entry 97c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c99c+2.3%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 50c1.0¢ spread · 4.3k/6.2k within 5¢polymarketYES50c57c+16.2%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 50c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES50c23c−54.0%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 28c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c22c−21.4%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES15c17c+13.3%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64cpolymarketYES64c37c−42.5%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c9c−4.8%1.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 40d Range
- 4156
- Percentile
- 5th
- 8d Change
- −1.7
- Volatility
- 1.2 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 21
- Effective N
- 8.7
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Venues
- 21 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 21/36
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×0.9885
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (Front-runner → Wide open). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope -0.27/day, projection σ 1.4 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 21 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 1 holdingsHide the remaining 1 holdings
Where these markets are covered
19 of 21 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- MLB: 2026 NL MVP — Odds & Probability
- Highest grossing movie in 2026? — Odds & Probability
- Top Spotify Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? — Odds
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner — Odds & Probability
- Billboard #1 Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner — Odds & Probability
- MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner — Odds & Probability
- Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner — Odds & Probability
- Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
- Top US Spotify Artist 2026 — Odds & Probability
- Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the
- Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their
- MLB: AL Rookie of the Year — Odds & Probability
- MLB: 2026 AL MVP — Odds & Probability
- MLB: NL Rookie of the Year — Odds & Probability
- Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner — Odds
- The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game — Odds & Probability
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, who will break the stories everyone talks about?
Newsrooms and traditional mediaIndependent creators and podcastersIn the 2027 awards season, will the favorites win?
The favorites mostly winPlenty of upsets
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WAWD · at a glance
- What it is
- The awards-season toss-up gauge — how open the trophy races are.
- High vs low
- Higher = no clear front-runner. Lower = the race is settled.
- Who cares
- Entertainment desks tracking whether awards season has a front-runner or a fight.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Awards Race Index (WAWD) prints a WET Index Score of 41.4/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.