WSCOR

W.E.T. Score Tech Science Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding

No reading published for 2026-11-14

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level

—

no level published

Gauge

—

Divisor

—

what chains this level to the last

Closes

latest 2026-11-14

The opposing reading

score-tech-science-inside-six-months-inverse reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage

0 of 0 admitted markets pricedκ 0.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%

Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong

The "score" axis stops appearing in tech-science titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.

How this reading was constructed (7)

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 12512, category-not-admitted 3957, horizon-outside-window 61. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 61 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 12512, category-not-admitted 3957, horizon-outside-window 61.
universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 61 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
universe: 12512 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.

Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 5c2348b80251f6a6 · methodology 98806b619350ff13 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-11-14§2.6 rung 2

no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding

Last published reading: 14.53 on 2026-11-01. It is not carried forward.

47 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print58 held · close 2026-11-14

1041.68+4.17%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1041.68
Since inception: +4.17%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 34.5% of 58
1 day: −2.03%
7 day: +2.89%
Markets held: 58
Settled: 2
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 51.0%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 58 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c13c+31.6%8.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 8c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c6c−22.4%4.8%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c7c−32.0%4.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c2c−61.8%3.9%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c4c−50.0%3.9%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c−3.4%3.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 28c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c37c+32.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c6c+29.0%3.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 87c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c87c+0.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c25c+194.1%2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c11c−20.2%2.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c3c−56.9%2.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 5c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c7c+25.5%2.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 95c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c88c−6.4%2.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c21c+128.9%2.1%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 10c3 sessions stalekalshiYES10c7c−31.6%2.0%Kalshi ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 27c19 sessions stalepolymarketYES27c23c−13.2%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 21c22.0¢ spread · 45/32 within 5¢polymarketYES21c42c+100.0%1.8%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c3 sessions stalekalshiYES98c99c+0.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 36c2 sessions stalekalshiYES36c32c−11.3%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 16c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c16c0.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 16c2 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c20c+25.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 12c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c3c−73.3%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 71cpolymarketYES71c7c−90.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 15c2 sessions stalekalshiYES15c9c−43.3%1.5%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 27c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES27c30c+11.3%1.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c5c−36.5%1.5%Polymarket ↗
Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c99c+6.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 26c2 sessions stalekalshiYES26c14c−44.2%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64c2 sessions stalekalshiYES64c60c−6.3%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 7c4 sessions stalekalshiYES7c6c−21.4%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c5c−10.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 73c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES73c94c+29.5%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 55c2.0¢ spread · 554/7.9k within 5¢polymarketYES55c92c+68.8%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−16.4%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 35cpolymarketYES35c48c+39.1%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 70cpolymarketYES70c58c−16.5%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 17c10 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c48c+179.7%1.1%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c56c+404.5%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 38c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES38c26c−32.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 40c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES40c62c+55.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−10.8%0.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 71c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES71c86c+20.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 44c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES44c16c−63.6%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 88cpolymarketYES88c9c−89.7%0.7%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 82c1.0¢ spread · 1.7k/330 within 5¢polymarketYES82c9c−89.6%0.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 68c22 sessions stalepolymarketYES68c79c+17.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c7c−91.9%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−81.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c5c−80.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 58 constituents by weight. See the full book →

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

WSCOR · at a glance

What it is: 47 tech-science markets carrying the "score" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low: Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares: Anyone tracking how score is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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“The W.E.T. Score Tech Science Index 6mo (WSCOR) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”

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