Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Detroit Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingdetroit-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 75.82 against this index’s 24.18. Same markets, opposite side.
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Detroit's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Detroit club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (10)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 20. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 276, keyword-miss 9105, horizon-outside-window 2. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 2 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9105 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 276 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 7 of 20 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 5, spread-too-wide 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 13 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 13 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 10 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.952856107 against a gauge basis of 0.241823535; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
- the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-09-14, 4 close(s) ago, and 4 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 10-member composition of 2026-09-14 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec c4f2ab4d711bd8e9 · methodology 1f03c7527c4f26e0 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
13 sports markets naming Detroit Lions, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +56.7% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -9.4% — a 66-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 88.9% of 9
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 9
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 9 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c8c−8.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?polymarket · YES · entry 36c1.0¢ spread · 3.3k/1.6k within 5¢polymarketYES36c32c−12.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Detroit Lions finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c14c+107.7%14.5%Polymarket ↗
- NFC Championship Winner — Detroitgemini · YES · entry 9cgeminiYES9c5c−41.2%14.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Lions win the season series against the Packers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 36cpolymarketYES36c31c−15.3%13.5%Polymarket ↗
- American League Champion — Detroitgemini · YES · entry 5c23 sessions stalegeminiYES5c2c−55.6%9.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Detroit Lions finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c8c−22.4%8.3%Polymarket ↗
- 2027 Pro Football Champion — Detroitgemini · YES · entry 4cgeminiYES4c52c+1385.7%8.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the season series between the Lions and Packers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 43cpolymarketYES43c57c+35.3%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1958.86 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 2.41 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 21d Range
- 1226
- Percentile
- 91th
- 8d Change
- +8.2
- Volatility
- 3.2 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 13
- Effective N
- 8.9
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 13 P
- Method
- v1
Daily close
21d published · interactive21 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 19 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 21d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 21 readings, slope +0.29/day, projection σ 4.0 pts/d widened for a 21-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 13 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWDETR · at a glance
- What it is
- 13 sports markets naming Detroit Lions, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how detroit-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Detroit Football Index 6mo (WDETR) prints a WET Index Score of 24.2/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.