WSEA4

W.E.T. Inverse Seattle Football Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
1069.6343
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
69.17
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
6.4671e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
The opposing reading

seattle-football-inside-six-months reads 30.83 against this index’s 69.17. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
10 of 10 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The board stops listing markets that name Seattle's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A Seattle club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (8)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 12. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4302, keyword-miss 12208, category-not-admitted 1, horizon-outside-window 7.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 7 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 12208 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • 4302 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
  • eligibility: 2 of 12 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 1, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 5 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. 5 of 5 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 10 prior member(s), of which 0 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 0 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.000437134 against a gauge basis of 0.691745025; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec d69059be6ab654fa · methodology 50dd3339f2192aa5 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

69.17−3.50 (−4.81%)Elevated & climbing, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

The same markets naming Seattle Seahawks, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

Basket level · official print13 held · close 2026-11-14
1031.22+3.12%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
1031.22
Since inception
+3.12%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
38.5% of 13
1 day
0.00%
7 day
+5.50%
Markets held
13
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
48.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 13 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the season series between the Rams and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 54c15 sessions stale55c+1.9%↗
  • Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 88c93c+5.1%↗
  • Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West?polymarket · NO · entry 69c90c+31.4%↗
  • Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 77c2 sessions stale63c−18.9%↗
  • Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · NO · entry 34c47c+40.3%↗
  • NFC Championship Winner — Seattlegemini · NO · entry 88c15 sessions stale85c−3.4%↗
  • 2027 Pro Football Champion — Seattlegemini · NO · entry 93c15 sessions stale91c−2.2%↗
  • American League Champion — Seattlegemini · NO · entry 96c44 sessions stale96c0.0%↗
  • Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Seahawks during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 97c27 sessions stale96c−1.1%↗
  • Will Seattle Seahawks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards?polymarket · NO · entry 96c99c+3.2%↗
  • Will the Seahawks win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 66c30 sessions stale77c+16.8%↗
  • Will the season series between the 49ers and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 62c30 sessions stale53c−13.8%↗
  • Will Seattle Seahawks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · NO · entry 96c97c+1.6%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
-140.12index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1859.88 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.36 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
72.72
Band
Elevated
22d Range
6376
Percentile
32th
9d Change
−6.3
Volatility
4.0 pts/d
Streak
2d down
Markets
10
Effective N
7.3
Top Weight
15%
Venues
10 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 6 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-11-04 · not the governed close
70.072.074.076.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
69.09
Since 2026-11-04
−3.68
Range
69.1–77.1
Readings
74+23 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

22d published · interactive

22 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 71 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 22d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
405060708090now69
Projected 14d
68.90
Change
−0.30
80% band
45–93
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 22 readings, slope -0.04/day, projection σ 5.0 pts/d widened for a 22-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

WSEA4 · at a glance

What it is
The same markets naming Seattle Seahawks, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how seattle-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Seattle Football Index 6mo (WSEA4) prints a WET Index Score of 69.2/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.