WRESE

W.E.T. Reserve Economics Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
60.45
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
32 of 32 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "reserve" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 7, severity frames 0 of 7, threshold frames 4 of 7), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 46. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16438, category-not-admitted 4, horizon-outside-window 42.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 42 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 16438 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 14 of 46 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 11, below-min-volume 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:split], framing 26 of 32 members and holding 0 of them NO. The 26 members the threshold axis frames split 15/11 between `up` and `down` — a 58% majority against a 67% bar is two directions, not one, so no member is flipped on it today. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 909f6dab88214653 · methodology 1c56ebfe29421888 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

60.45−1.30 (−2.10%)Elevated & climbing, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

32 economics markets carrying the "reserve" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print19 held · close 2026-11-14
855.33−14.47%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
855.33
Since inception
−14.47%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
21.1% of 19
1 day
−1.60%
7 day
+8.26%
Markets held
19
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
58.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 19 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c14 sessions stale1c−50.0%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24c17 sessions stale19c−21.3%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 16c0.2¢ spread · 11.3k/29.6k within 5¢2c−89.1%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c17 sessions stale1c−50.0%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 9c2c−82.4%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c15 sessions stale83c+16.2%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c10c+375.0%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68c3c−96.3%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26c86c+235.3%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73c15 sessions stale90c+22.6%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stale2c−60.0%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10c1c−90.0%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 22c63c+190.7%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c14 sessions stale1c−54.2%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43c15 sessions stale68c+58.8%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 56c15 sessions stale30c−47.3%↗
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2c15 sessions stale1c−52.4%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 19c15 sessions stale8c−57.6%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 60c37c−37.8%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
61.80
Band
Elevated
50d Range
4083
Percentile
66th
9d Change
−9.0
Volatility
9.8 pts/d
Streak
2d down
Markets
32
Effective N
15.1
Top Weight
15%
Venues
7 K · 25 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 5 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed close
50.055.060.065.070.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
59.30
Since 2026-10-22
+6.71
Range
48.5–70.6
Readings
33+64 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

50d published · interactive

50 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 43 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 50d published · dashed = projected · no band published
020406080100now61
Projected 14d
61.00
Change
+0.60
80% band
not published — the 14d dispersion is wider than the 0–100 scale
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.09/day, projection σ 11.5 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
economics100% · 32

Constituents by weight

all 32 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 12 holdings

WRESE · at a glance

What it is
32 economics markets carrying the "reserve" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how reserve is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Reserve Economics Index 6mo (WRESE) prints a WET Index Score of 60.4/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.