Not sentiment gauges — structural readings of contract geometry. Meeting strips are vig-stripped into an expected rate change in basis points; threshold ladders are isotonic-repaired into a full distribution with an expected value and an 80% band. Every input is a live, tradable contract. Data, not advice.
The P(cut) column across meetings is the market's cut-probability term structure — how imminent vs deferred easing is priced. “>25bps” wings are booked at 50bps (published convention). Σp per strip is normalized (vig-stripped) before the expectation is read.
Method: meeting strips are mutually-exclusive action contracts; mids are normalized (Σp → 1) and the expectation read in basis points. Threshold ladders are “above X” contracts forming a survival curve; monotonicity is repaired (pool-adjacent-violators), the curve differenced into a distribution, and E[X], SD, and the 80% band read in native units. Degenerate books (Σp outside 0.5–1.5, or fewer than 4 strikes) return no number. Machine-readable: /api/indices/implied. These readings supersede the retired 0–100 Fed Path gauge; the gauge page remains published for continuity.