WALBU

W.E.T. Album Culture Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
43.81
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
24 of 24 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "album" axis stops appearing in culture titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 6, severity frames 0 of 6, threshold frames 1 of 6), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 153. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16368, horizon-unknown 2, horizon-outside-window 7.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 7 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 2 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 16368 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 129 of 153 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 111, price-below-floor 14, spread-too-wide 4. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 1 of 24 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 1 of 24 members (4%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 22e9d2a4e9c04bd0 · methodology 4191e5eb988f03fd · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

43.81+5.40 (+14.05%)Moderate & cooling, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

24 culture markets carrying the "album" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print36 held · close 2026-11-14
831.95−16.81%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
831.95
Since inception
−16.81%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
41.7% of 36
1 day
−3.01%
7 day
+3.58%
Markets held
36
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
60.1%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 36 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 16c20c+24.5%↗
  • Will The Romantic (Bruno Mars) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1c−90.5%↗
  • Will The Life of a Showgirl (Taylor Swift) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 8c5c−35.0%↗
  • Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c7 sessions stale2c−85.3%↗
  • Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 40k and 50k?polymarket · YES · entry 13c21 sessions stale1c−92.3%↗
  • Will Don't Be Dumb (A$AP Rocky) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 22c1.0¢ spread · 861/795 within 5¢37c+65.9%↗
  • Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 59c6 sessions stale28c−53.4%↗
  • Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?polymarket · YES · entry 21c21 sessions stale1c−95.2%↗
  • Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 47c1.0¢ spread · 1.8k/646 within 5¢42c−11.7%↗
  • Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 20c2c−89.0%↗
  • Will Pitbull release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 97c28 sessions stale87c−9.8%↗
  • Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?polymarket · YES · entry 54c21 sessions stale97c+79.6%↗
  • Will "The Romantic - Bruno Mars" be the top album for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−58.3%↗
  • Will Lost Weekend (Phoebe Bridgers) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 11c3c−71.4%↗
  • Will petal (Ariana Grande) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 3c1c−66.7%↗
  • Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 69c7 sessions stale93c+35.0%↗
  • Will The Great Divide (Noah Kahan) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 3c3c+7.4%↗
  • Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 80c6 sessions stale30c−63.1%↗
  • Will West End Girl (Lily Allen) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−80.4%↗
  • Will Don Toliver release new album before Feb 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 56c85c+53.2%↗
  • Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 44c20 sessions stale29c−34.1%↗
  • Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album before Nov 1, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 32c55 sessions stale32c0.0%↗
  • Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 41c28 sessions stale99c+140.2%↗
  • Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 67c28 sessions stale88c+31.6%↗
  • Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 56c28 sessions stale99c+74.3%↗
  • Will Miley Cyrus release a new album before Mar 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 70c28 sessions stale88c+25.9%↗
  • Will Pitbull release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 91c28 sessions stale87c−3.9%↗
  • Will Tate McRae release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 42c78c+88.0%↗
  • Will Arirang (BTS) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 3c1c−61.5%↗
  • Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?polymarket · YES · entry 8c22c+186.7%↗
  • Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be 70k or more?polymarket · YES · entry 4c21 sessions stale1c−75.6%↗
  • Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 31c5 sessions stale21c−33.9%↗
  • Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 54c5 sessions stale21c−61.1%↗
  • Will Pitbull release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 89c20 sessions stale98c+10.7%↗
  • Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 17c5 sessions stale13c−21.2%↗
  • Will Rihanna release an album in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 19c5 sessions stale17c−8.1%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
38.43
Band
Moderate
52d Range
3871
Percentile
8th
9d Change
+4.6
Volatility
4.9 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
24
Effective N
13.6
Top Weight
15%
Venues
9 K · 15 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 6 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-11-04 · not the governed close
36.038.040.042.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
41.95
Since 2026-11-04
+5.81
Range
35.2–42.1
Readings
70+27 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

52d published · interactive

52 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 41 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 52d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
10203040506070now42
Projected 14d
41.90
Change
−1.90
80% band
15–68
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.28/day, projection σ 5.5 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
culture100% · 24

Constituents by weight

all 24 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 4 holdings

Where these markets are covered

2 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WALBU · at a glance

What it is
24 culture markets carrying the "album" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how album is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Album Culture Index 6mo (WALBU) prints a WET Index Score of 43.8/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.