Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index
v3SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 19, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Calm → Stressed)
How much commodity price-spike stress (oil, gas, metals) the market is pricing.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends -44.0% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -78.9% — a 35-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 10
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c1c−84.6%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−83.7%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5c18 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−79.8%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 53c6 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 10.7k/6.0k within 5¢polymarketYES53c1c−97.5%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?polymarket · YES · entry 10c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c1c−90.0%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES47c1c−97.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 51c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES51c99c+93.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c7c−5.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in August?polymarket · YES · entry 89c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c86c−3.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c50c+35.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very low
- 49d Range
- 544
- Percentile
- 55th
- 8d Change
- −9.9
- Volatility
- 7.6 pts/d
- Streak
- 3d flat
- Markets
- 11
- Effective N
- 3.7
- Top Weight
- 30%
- Venues
- 11 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 11/18
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.5424
Daily close
49d published · interactive49 published close(s) — 0–100 (Calm → Stressed). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 49d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope +0.00/day, projection σ 7.0 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 11 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 11 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Will oil or food prices spike sharply in the next 12 months?
No — prices stay fairly steadyYes — a sharp price spike hitsOver the next two years, will the power grid keep up with rising demand?
Supply keeps upShortages and price spikes
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WCOS · at a glance
- What it is
- The price-spike gauge for energy & materials.
- High vs low
- Higher = more commodity price-spike stress priced. Lower = calm supply.
- Who cares
- Commodities desks and macro reporters tracking oil, gas, and metals price-spike odds.
Embed this score
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The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/commodity-stress)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/commodity-stress"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/commodity-stress/badge" alt="WCOS — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/commodity-stress" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WCOS — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index (WCOS) prints a WET Index Score of 16.0/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.