Commodity Stress Index
WCOSW.E.T. Commodity Stress Index
How much commodity price-spike stress (oil, gas, metals) the market is pricing.
Higher = more commodity price-spike stress priced. Lower = calm supply.
History · 1 day
Computed from 11 markets (effective 4.8) · 0 Kalshi / 11 Polymarket · $11.1M vol · top holding 30%
The desk read
Fell 0.6 to 34.0 (Low).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
74% · 30% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
17% · 24% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
11% · 19% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?
17% · 14% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?
17% · 9% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July?
45% · 3% wt · polymarket
WCOS · at a glance
- What it is
- The price-spike gauge for energy & materials.
- High vs low
- Higher = more commodity price-spike stress priced. Lower = calm supply.
- Who cares
- Commodities desks and macro reporters tracking oil, gas, and metals price-spike odds.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | polymarket | 74% | 30.0% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | polymarket | 17% | 23.5% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | polymarket | 11% | 18.8% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July? | polymarket | 17% | 14.4% |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July? | polymarket | 17% | 8.8% |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in July? | polymarket | 45% | 2.8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of July 20 2026? | polymarket | 53% | 0.9% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of July 20 2026? | polymarket | 34% | 0.6% |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of July 20 2026? | polymarket | 59% | 0.2% |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of July 20 2026? | polymarket | 34% | 0.2% |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027? | polymarket | 47% | 0.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index (WCOS) reads 34.0/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.