W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index
v3SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 10, 2026 · last moved Sep 8, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Calm → Stressed)
How much commodity price-spike stress (oil, gas, metals) the market is pricing.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends -40.7% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -72.8% — a 32-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 30.0% of 10
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c1c−84.6%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−83.7%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c2c−67.7%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 53c1.0¢ spread · 31.1k/6.2k within 5¢polymarketYES53c12c−78.2%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c2c−83.5%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES47c1c−97.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 51c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES51c99c+93.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c7c−5.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in August?polymarket · YES · entry 89c33 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c86c−3.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c50c+35.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 22.20
- Band
- Low
- 39d Range
- 544
- Percentile
- 67th
- 7d Change
- −7.1
- Volatility
- 8.4 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d flat
- Markets
- 12
- Effective N
- 4.3
- Top Weight
- 30%
- Venues
- 1 K · 11 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 12/18
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.4702
Daily close
39d published · interactive39 published close(s) — 0–100 (Calm → Stressed). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 39d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 39 readings, slope -0.30/day, projection σ 9.6 pts/d widened for a 39-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 12 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-10) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 12 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Do supply shocks return?
Supply chains normalizeCommodity shocks bite againDoes the grid keep up with demand?
Buildout outpaces demandPower stays the bottleneck
WCOS · at a glance
- What it is
- The price-spike gauge for energy & materials.
- High vs low
- Higher = more commodity price-spike stress priced. Lower = calm supply.
- Who cares
- Commodities desks and macro reporters tracking oil, gas, and metals price-spike odds.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 10, 2026, the W.E.T. Commodity Stress Index (WCOS) prints a WET Index Score of 22.2/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.