Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Global Easing Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 20, 2026 · scale 0–100 (On hold → Cutting cycle)
How much easing the market is pricing across the world’s central banks.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 823.77
- Since inception
- −17.62%
- Cost to cross
- 0.36pts
- Holdings marked
- 75.0% of 12
- 1 day
- +3.10%
- 7 day
- −0.47%
- Markets held
- 12
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 69.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 12 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 89c0.1¢ spread · 343.8k/10579.7k within 5¢polymarketYES89c98c+10.5%28.1%Polymarket ↗
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c1.2¢ spread · 85.8k/8.7k within 5¢polymarketYES6c2c−62.5%24.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c6c−36.8%6.4%Kalshi ↗
- ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 2.3k/3.7k within 5¢polymarketYES10c3c−64.7%6.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting? — Cut >25bpskalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c2c−80.0%4.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c1c−77.8%2.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 6c1.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES6c6c−8.3%1.8%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 18c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiYES18c2c−91.4%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 8c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c1c−87.4%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 1.4k/2.1k within 5¢kalshiYES14c6c−55.6%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 13c2.0¢ spread · 1.7k/2.6k within 5¢kalshiYES13c11c−19.2%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 4c21 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c1c−75.6%0.0%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 40d Range
- 2628
- Percentile
- 8th
- 8d Change
- −0.4
- Volatility
- 0.3 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d flat
- Markets
- 13
- Effective N
- 5.7
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Venues
- 8 K · 5 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 13/16
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.2453
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (On hold → Cutting cycle). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope -0.01/day, projection σ 0.9 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 13 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 13 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
A year from now, where will US interest rates be?
Lower — the Fed keeps cuttingSame or higher — rates stay high
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WGEA · at a glance
- What it is
- The world rate-cut gauge — every central bank the market prices, in one number.
- High vs low
- Higher = the market is pricing a broad global cutting cycle. Lower = banks on hold or tightening.
- Who cares
- Macro and FX desks reading the global easing cycle rather than the Fed alone.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Global Easing Index (WGEA) prints a WET Index Score of 26.4/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.