W.E.T. Global Easing Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 8, 2026 · last moved Aug 15, 2026 · scale 0–100 (On hold → Cutting cycle)
How much easing the market is pricing across the world’s central banks.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1005.82
- Since inception
- +0.58%
- Cost to cross
- 0.41pts
- Holdings marked
- 80.0% of 15
- 1 day
- −0.15%
- 7 day
- +2.02%
- Markets held
- 15
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 54.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 35
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 15 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 89c0.1¢ spread · 207.8k/271.7k within 5¢polymarketYES89c93c+4.6%28.1%Polymarket ↗
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 6c1.3¢ spread · 85.0k/11.0k within 5¢polymarketYES6c6c+2.5%24.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6c0.3¢ spread · 5116.1k/56.8k within 5¢polymarketYES6c3c−39.1%17.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c9c−5.3%6.4%Kalshi ↗
- ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c1.0¢ spread · 2.6k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketYES10c5c−52.6%6.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting? — Cut >25bpskalshi · YES · entry 8ckalshiYES8c8c0.0%4.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 77c1.4¢ spread · 1.1k/5.5k within 5¢polymarketYES77c97c+26.5%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+22.2%2.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 6c5.0¢ spread · 262/247 within 5¢kalshiYES6c14c+125.0%1.8%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c3.1¢ spread · 5.6k/3.1k within 5¢polymarketYES9c2c−79.0%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 18c2.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES18c12c−31.4%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c1c−87.4%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 1.2k/372 within 5¢kalshiYES14c9c−37.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting? — Cut 25bpskalshi · YES · entry 13c12.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES13c18c+38.5%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−75.6%0.0%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 26.90
- Band
- Low
- 28d Range
- 2728
- Percentile
- 57th
- 8d Change
- +0.2
- Volatility
- 0.3 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d flat
- Markets
- 13
- Effective N
- 6.2
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Venues
- 6 K · 6 P · 1 G
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 13/16
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.0075
Daily close
28d published · interactive28 published close(s) — 0–100 (On hold → Cutting cycle). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope -0.01/day, projection σ 1.0 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 13 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-08) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 13 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Where do interest rates go from here?
Cuts come soonerHigher for longer
WGEA · at a glance
- What it is
- The world rate-cut gauge — every central bank the market prices, in one number.
- High vs low
- Higher = the market is pricing a broad global cutting cycle. Lower = banks on hold or tightening.
- Who cares
- Macro and FX desks reading the global easing cycle rather than the Fed alone.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 8, 2026, the W.E.T. Global Easing Index (WGEA) prints a WET Index Score of 26.9/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.