WRAT3

W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
35.69
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
Coverage
91 of 91 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "rate" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 13, severity frames 0 of 13, threshold frames 6 of 13), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 213. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 15863, category-not-admitted 26, horizon-outside-window 428.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 428 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 15863 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 122 of 213 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 74, below-min-volume 19, price-above-ceiling 15, spread-too-wide 14. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 47 of 91 members and holding 8 of them NO. 39 of 47 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 90100639ceb5a855 · methodology c58e6ce7f28d3e1b · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

35.69−6.00 (−14.39%)Low & cooling, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

91 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.

No level published for this basket

No return published — not one of this basket's 49 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.

Basket level · official print49 held · close 2026-11-14
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
0.0% of 49
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
49
Settled
3
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
52.0%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 49 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c46 sessions stale54c−24.1%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c46 sessions stale44c+52.6%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c46 sessions stale45c+56.1%↗
  • Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c55 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c55 sessions stale5c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c55 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c51 sessions stale99c+1.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c55 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c55 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c55 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c55 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in September 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c28 sessions stale1c−50.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 98c55 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c55 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 2c55 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c44 sessions stale96c+8.7%↗
  • No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c38 sessions stale98c+3.8%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 64c35 sessions stale77c+19.5%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c34 sessions stale15c−83.7%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c44 sessions stale4c−56.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 34c55 sessions stale34c0.0%↗
  • Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 87c20 sessions stale99c+13.8%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 8c55 sessions stale8c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 64c35 sessions stale78c+21.1%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 88c55 sessions stale88c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c46 sessions stale7c−50.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c23 sessions stale99c+4.7%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 93c55 sessions stale93c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 57c55 sessions stale57c0.0%↗
  • Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 30c46 sessions stale48c+61.0%↗
  • Fed decision in September? — Fed maintains rategemini · YES · entry 71c33 sessions stale23c−68.1%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83c33 sessions stale69c−17.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c55 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c33 sessions stale20c+169.9%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 30c55 sessions stale30c0.0%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 10c55 sessions stale10c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c55 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c34 sessions stale83c+1457.5%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stale12c+40.0%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 25c55 sessions stale25c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 88c51 sessions stale85c−3.4%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 96c31 sessions stale98c+1.6%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 87c31 sessions stale71c−17.9%↗
  • Brazil unemployment rate in July 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 43c47 sessions stale13c−70.9%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 72c31 sessions stale46c−35.7%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 35c31 sessions stale9c−73.9%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 9c55 sessions stale9c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c39 sessions stale96c+2.7%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 4c55 sessions stale4c0.0%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
41.70
Band
Low
53d Range
3684
Percentile
2th
9d Change
−21.8
Volatility
7.2 pts/d
Streak
3d down
Markets
91
Effective N
10.2
Top Weight
15%
Venues
33 K · 58 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

98 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed close
30.040.050.060.070.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 06:00
Latest
36.75
Since 2026-10-22
−12.74
Range
29.7–69.2
Readings
20+78 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

53d published · interactive

53 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 40 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 53d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
020406080now34
Projected 14d
34.30
Change
−1.40
80% band
0–72
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.19/day, projection σ 7.8 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
unclassified100% · 91

Constituents by weight

all 91 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 71 holdings

Where these markets are covered

4 of 91 constituents have a W.E.T. page

WRAT3 · at a glance

What it is
91 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how rate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo (WRAT3) prints a WET Index Score of 35.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.