Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo
v1StandingExperimentalMonthly45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "rate" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 13, severity frames 0 of 13, threshold frames 6 of 13), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 120. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11355, category-not-admitted 22, horizon-outside-window 156. - universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 156 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11355 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 57 of 120 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 31, below-min-volume 18, spread-too-wide 8. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 44 of 63 members and holding 9 of them NO. 35 of 44 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 90100639ceb5a855 · methodology c58e6ce7f28d3e1b · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 9, 2026 · last moved Sep 9, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
63 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, gemini, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1102.36
- Since inception
- +10.24%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 26.9% of 52
- 1 day
- +0.01%
- 7 day
- −0.25%
- Markets held
- 52
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 45.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 52 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c11 sessions stalekalshiYES71c54c−24.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 72c1.0¢ spread · 211.1k/545.5k within 5¢polymarketYES72c46c−36.4%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c11 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c44c+52.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c11 sessions stalekalshiYES28c45c+56.1%8.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c20 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c20 sessions stalekalshiYES5c5c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c20 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c16 sessions stalekalshiYES98c99c+1.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c20 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c20 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c20 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c20 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in September 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c13c+525.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 98c20 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c20 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 2c20 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c0.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c96c+8.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+3.8%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 64cpolymarketYES64c77c+19.5%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92cpolymarketYES92c16c−82.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c9 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c4c−56.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 16c1.4¢ spread · 1.2k/11.9k within 5¢polymarketNO16c5c−67.3%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 34c20 sessions stalekalshiYES34c34c0.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c2.4¢ spread · 4.0k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketNO95c98c+4.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 87cpolymarketYES87c95c+9.7%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 8c20 sessions stalekalshiYES8c8c0.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 64cpolymarketNO64c78c+21.1%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 88c20 sessions stalekalshiYES88c88c0.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c11 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c7c−50.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c99c+4.7%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 93c20 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 57c20 sessions stalekalshiYES57c57c0.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 30c11 sessions stalekalshiYES30c48c+61.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Fed decision in September? — Fed maintains rategemini · YES · entry 71cgeminiYES71c46c−35.5%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83cpolymarketYES83c70c−15.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c20 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c19c+154.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 30c20 sessions stalekalshiYES30c30c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 10c20 sessions stalekalshiYES10c10c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c20 sessions stalekalshiYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c80c+1412.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c12c+37.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 25c20 sessions stalekalshiYES25c25c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 88c16 sessions stalekalshiYES88c85c−3.4%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 96ckalshiYES96c96c−0.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 87ckalshiYES87c82c−5.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Brazil unemployment rate in July 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 43c12 sessions stalekalshiYES43c13c−70.9%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 72ckalshiYES72c48c−33.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 35ckalshiYES35c6c−84.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 9c20 sessions stalekalshiYES9c9c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 52 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 18d Range
- 5378
- Percentile
- 44th
- 10d Change
- +4.5
- Volatility
- 8.0 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 63
- Effective N
- 10.7
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 25 K · 37 P · 1 G
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 7 sessions
151 hourly readings since 2026-09-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 9 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope +0.13/day, projection σ 10.4 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 63 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-09) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 43 holdingsHide the remaining 43 holdings
Where these markets are covered
6 of 63 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WRAT3 · at a glance
- What it is
- 63 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, gemini, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how rate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.
Embed this score
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[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/rate-economics-inside-two-months)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/rate-economics-inside-two-months"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/rate-economics-inside-two-months/badge" alt="WRAT3 — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/rate-economics-inside-two-months" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WRAT3 — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 9, 2026, the W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo (WRAT3) prints a WET Index Score of 59.6/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.