Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WRAT3

W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo

v1StandingExperimentalMonthly
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
84.08
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
30 of 30 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The "rate" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 13, severity frames 0 of 13, threshold frames 6 of 13), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 56. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9184, category-not-admitted 19, horizon-outside-window 144.
  • universe: the declared 17–60d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 144 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9184 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • eligibility: 26 of 56 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 26. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:split], framing 19 of 30 members and holding 0 of them NO. The 19 members the threshold axis frames split 12/7 between `up` and `down` — a 63% majority against a 67% bar is two directions, not one, so no member is flipped on it today. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 90100639ceb5a855 · methodology c58e6ce7f28d3e1b · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

84.08Stale · 5 closes behindVery high & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

30 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.

Basket level · official print49 held · close 2026-09-28
964.90−3.51%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
964.90
Since inception
−3.51%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
2.0% of 49
1 day
0.00%
7 day
0.00%
Markets held
49
Settled
3
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
52.0%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
34

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 49 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c25 sessions stale54c−24.1%↗
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c25 sessions stale44c+52.6%↗
  • Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 28c25 sessions stale45c+56.1%↗
  • Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c34 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c34 sessions stale5c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c34 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c30 sessions stale99c+1.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c34 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c34 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c34 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c34 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in September 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c7 sessions stale1c−50.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 98c34 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c34 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 2c34 sessions stale2c0.0%↗
  • No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 89c23 sessions stale96c+8.7%↗
  • No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 94c17 sessions stale98c+3.8%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 64c14 sessions stale77c+19.5%↗
  • No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c13 sessions stale15c−83.7%↗
  • Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 8c23 sessions stale4c−56.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 34c34 sessions stale34c0.0%↗
  • Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 87c99c+13.8%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 8c34 sessions stale8c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 64c14 sessions stale78c+21.1%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 88c34 sessions stale88c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14c25 sessions stale7c−50.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stale99c+4.7%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 93c34 sessions stale93c0.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 57c34 sessions stale57c0.0%↗
  • Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 30c25 sessions stale48c+61.0%↗
  • Fed decision in September? — Fed maintains rategemini · YES · entry 71c12 sessions stale23c−68.1%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 83c12 sessions stale69c−17.0%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?kalshi · YES · entry 3c34 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 7c12 sessions stale20c+169.9%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 30c34 sessions stale30c0.0%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 10c34 sessions stale10c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c34 sessions stale3c0.0%↗
  • Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c13 sessions stale83c+1457.5%↗
  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c12 sessions stale12c+40.0%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 25c34 sessions stale25c0.0%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 88c30 sessions stale85c−3.4%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 96c10 sessions stale98c+1.6%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 87c10 sessions stale71c−17.9%↗
  • Brazil unemployment rate in July 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 43c26 sessions stale13c−70.9%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 72c10 sessions stale46c−35.7%↗
  • Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?kalshi · YES · entry 35c10 sessions stale9c−73.9%↗
  • Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 9c34 sessions stale9c0.0%↗
  • Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the September Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c18 sessions stale96c+2.7%↗
  • Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 4c34 sessions stale4c0.0%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Very high
28d Range
5184
Percentile
100th
8d Change
+24.2
Volatility
7.9 pts/d
Streak
—
Markets
30
Effective N
9.4
Top Weight
15%
Venues
2 K · 28 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 7 sessions

136 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed close
65.070.075.080.085.009-22 00:0009-25 07:0009-28 13:00
Latest
68.29
Since 2026-09-22
−6.49
Range
65.5–84.3
Readings
39+97 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

28d published · interactive

28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
405060708090100now86
Projected 14d
86.20
Change
+2.10
80% band
41–100
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope +0.31/day, projection σ 9.5 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Premium
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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Premium

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
unclassified100% · 30

Constituents by weight

all 30 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set

Where these markets are covered

3 of 30 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

WRAT3 · at a glance

What it is
30 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, every one resolving inside two months, tracked as one composition.
High vs low
Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how rate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 60 days.

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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Rate Economics Index 2mo (WRAT3) prints a WET Index Score of 84.1/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.