Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Inverse Rate Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingrate-economics-inside-six-months reads 40.02 against this index’s 59.98. Same markets, opposite side.
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "rate" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (8)
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 104. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9184, category-not-admitted 19, horizon-outside-window 96. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 96 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9184 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 52 of 104 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 31, spread-too-wide 15, below-min-volume 5, price-above-ceiling 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:split], framing 30 of 52 members and holding 0 of them NO. The 30 members the threshold axis frames split 18/12 between `up` and `down` — a 60% majority against a 67% bar is two directions, not one, so no member is flipped on it today. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 51 prior member(s), of which 7 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 7 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.007918348 against a gauge basis of 0.599849327; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 0fc6a46da54af5f3 · methodology ec0c03f45323eebe · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same 20 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 901.38
- Since inception
- −9.86%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 51.4% of 74
- 1 day
- −0.07%
- 7 day
- +3.71%
- Markets held
- 74
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 55.5%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 33
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 74 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 28cpolymarketNO28c68c+136.8%11.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c74c+126.2%10.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 77cpolymarketNO77c34c−56.2%10.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 6c1.0¢ spread · none/1144.3k within 5¢kalshiYES6c1c−81.8%9.5%Kalshi ↗
- Fed rate hike in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 52c8 sessions stalepolymarketNO52c1c−98.1%6.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 6927.7k/261.4k within 5¢polymarketYES5c1c−78.3%6.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 76cpolymarketNO76c28c−62.3%6.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c1c−50.0%5.9%Kalshi ↗
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 73c8 sessions stalepolymarketNO73c1c−98.6%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 39cpolymarketNO39c44c+13.0%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 16c2 sessions stale0.4¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES16c5c−68.3%1.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c2c−78.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 80cpolymarketNO80c69c−14.4%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 77ckalshiNO77c33c−57.5%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 97c6 sessions stalekalshiNO97c99c+1.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 98c6 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in September 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c5 sessions stalekalshiNO95c95c−0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 96cpolymarketNO96c99c+3.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c3c−44.3%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c97c−0.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c5c−69.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3c5 sessions stalekalshiNO3c3c0.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c5 sessions stalekalshiNO7c1c−84.6%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 96c5 sessions stalekalshiNO96c66c−31.4%0.3%Kalshi ↗
- Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c59c−38.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 48c8 sessions stalepolymarketNO48c98c+103.1%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 93c5 sessions stalekalshiNO93c43c−54.1%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c50c−43.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 9c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiYES9c3c−70.6%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c6 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 29ckalshiNO29c69c+136.2%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c47c+410.9%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 33ckalshiNO33c77c+135.4%0.2%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c53c−43.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 11c5 sessions stalekalshiNO11c7c−40.9%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3c5 sessions stalekalshiNO3c2c−20.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 75ckalshiNO75c30c−60.4%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 27cpolymarketNO27c19c−30.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 5c5 sessions stalekalshiNO5c3c−40.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 6c5 sessions stalekalshiNO6c3c−45.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c59c−38.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 8c5 sessions stalekalshiNO8c5c−33.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−77.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · NO · entry 93c6.9¢ spread · 253/346 within 5¢polymarketNO93c91c−2.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c5 sessions stalekalshiNO7c4c−46.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c6 sessions stalekalshiNO98c98c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
- ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 2.3k/3.7k within 5¢polymarketYES9c5c−50.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c5 sessions stalekalshiNO7c7c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 74 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1960.77 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.14 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 28d Range
- 2862
- Percentile
- 79th
- 8d Change
- +22.8
- Volatility
- 10.6 pts/d
- Streak
- 4d up
- Markets
- 52
- Effective N
- 10.5
- Top Weight
- 15%
- Venues
- 9 K · 43 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
133 hourly readings since 2026-09-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
28d published · interactive28 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 12 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 28d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 28 readings, slope -0.34/day, projection σ 12.8 pts/d widened for a 28-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 52 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 32 holdingsHide the remaining 32 holdings
Where these markets are covered
4 of 52 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WRAT2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same 20 economics markets carrying the "rate" axis across polymarket, kalshi, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how rate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Rate Economics Index 6mo (WRAT2) prints a WET Index Score of 60.0/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.