The Index Desk Report
LATESTThursday, November 5, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.8Low
112 / 148 live36 elevated50 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.8 (Low), down 0.9.
Fell 0.9 to 22.8 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (25→23%) −0.5 repricing; recession-odds (25% leg) (26→24%) −0.4 repricing; commodity-stress (20% leg) +0.1 repricing.
The board: 112 of 148 benchmarks live — 36 elevated (≥60), 50 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Dec 2026) prices +19.4bps expected change (21% hold); cumulative +44.4bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Nov 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.79% (80% band 3.53–4.12%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WSENA 25.6 (▼29.7) — Senate — Elections, inside six months, down 29.7 on the day.
- WREP2 25.1 (▼23.5) — Republican — Elections, inside two years, down 23.5 on the day.
- WMEE3 63.7 (▲16.2) — Meeting — Economics, inside two years, up 16.2 on the day.
- WMEE2 52.6 (▼16.1) — Meeting — Economics, inside two months, down 16.1 on the day.
- WHOUS 28.9 (▼14.8) — House — Elections, inside two years, down 14.8 on the day.
Projection watch
- WPITT projected 51.3 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending up.
- WPIT2 projected 48.7 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WSANF projected 66.4 in 14d (80% band 29–100), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 23.3 | -1.2 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 4.9 | +1.0 | 2026-11-05 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 46.8 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 50.9 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.8 | -1.7 | 2026-11-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 29.8 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 22.0 | -0.3 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 44.7 | -6.2 | 2026-11-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 29.4 | -0.6 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 21.2 | +0.3 | 2026-11-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 17.4 | — | 2026-11-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 68.3 | -3.6 | 2026-11-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 15.6 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 4.7 | — | 2026-11-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 28.0 | -0.9 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 34.4 | -0.3 | 2026-11-05 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 35.7 | -0.3 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 77.4 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 68.1 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 25.0 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 26.2 | +4.2 | 2026-11-05 | Low & climbing |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 31.8 | -6.0 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 100.0 | 0.0 | 2026-11-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 53.8 | +0.4 | 2026-11-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 100.0 | — | 2026-11-03 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 89.9 | +2.1 | 2026-11-05 | Very high & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.8 | -0.9 | 2026-11-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 18.2 | -0.3 | 2026-11-05 | Very low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 33.1 | -0.6 | 2026-11-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 37.7 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 62.3 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 42.1 | -10.3 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARIZ | Arizona Football, inside six months | 56.6 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI2 | Inverse Arizona Football, inside six months | 43.4 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 44.8 | +13.0 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WATLA | Atlanta Football, inside six months | 18.1 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low |
| WATL2 | Inverse Atlanta Football, inside six months | 81.9 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very high |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 7.2 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 92.8 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 52.6 | -5.5 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 48.6 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 51.4 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 51.8 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 48.2 | — | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 42.9 | -7.3 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 57.1 | +7.3 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCLEV | Cleveland Football, inside six months | 22.8 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCLE2 | Inverse Cleveland Football, inside six months | 77.2 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WDALL | Dallas Football, inside six months | 23.9 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDAL2 | Inverse Dallas Football, inside six months | 76.1 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 35.4 | -8.1 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 34.8 | -8.4 | 2026-11-04 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 65.2 | +8.4 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 28.9 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 71.1 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 65.5 | +1.4 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 37.4 | -10.4 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 34.3 | -8.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WGOO2 | Google — Tech Science, inside two months | 65.7 | -0.3 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 15.7 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 84.3 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 28.5 | -6.4 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 71.5 | +6.4 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 28.9 | -14.8 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHOU2 | Houston Football, inside six months | 22.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHOU3 | Inverse Houston Football, inside six months | 78.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 32.8 | +0.7 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 67.2 | -0.7 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 41.5 | +1.7 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 58.5 | -1.7 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 68.7 | -8.8 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 68.2 | -1.5 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 35.9 | -4.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 64.1 | +4.5 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 40.7 | +4.2 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 59.3 | -4.2 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 22.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 78.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 19.6 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 80.4 | — | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMATH | Math — Tech Science, inside two months | 39.4 | -5.9 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 63.2 | -4.9 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 52.6 | -16.1 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 63.7 | +16.2 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 28.1 | -0.2 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 71.9 | +0.2 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWE | New England Football, inside six months | 32.7 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WNEW2 | Inverse New England Football, inside six months | 67.3 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 29.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WNEW4 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 71.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 39.1 | -1.0 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 95.5 | 0.0 | 2026-11-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 47.3 | -0.3 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 52.7 | +0.3 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 59.9 | -1.8 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAC2 | Race — Elections, inside two years | 35.9 | -6.3 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 51.0 | -2.6 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 49.0 | +2.6 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 60.1 | +0.6 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 62.7 | -2.5 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 25.1 | -23.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 50.5 | -12.8 | 2026-11-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 62.6 | +1.4 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 37.4 | -1.4 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 27.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSEA4 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 73.0 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 25.6 | -29.7 | 2026-11-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 35.3 | -1.5 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing |
| WWASH | Washington Football, inside six months | 37.2 | -5.6 | 2026-11-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WWAS2 | Inverse Washington Football, inside six months | 62.8 | +5.6 | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 65.4 | — | 2026-11-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.