The Index Desk Report
LATESTSaturday, August 1, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 40.6 (Moderate), down 0.6.
Fell 0.6 to 40.6 (Moderate), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (61→57%) −1.6; climate-risk (15% leg) (44→49%) +0.7; commodity-stress (20% leg) (30→31%) +0.4.
The board: 15 of 15 benchmarks live — 1 elevated (≥60), 7 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14.6bps expected change (39% hold); cumulative +26.3bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.17–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Vig-stripped, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WUPR 37.2 (▼3.6) — Fell 3.6 to 37.2 (Low), led by election-heat (30% leg) (56→50%) −1.9; geopolitical-risk (25% leg) (61→57%) −1.0; political-turmoil (45% leg) (20→18%) −0.8.
- WMSI 20.0 (▲0.8) — Rose 0.8 to 20.0 (Low), led by commodity-stress (35% leg) (30→31%) +0.6; fed-path (25% leg) (8→9%) +0.1.
- WWRI 40.6 (▼0.6) — Fell 0.6 to 40.6 (Moderate), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (61→57%) −1.6; climate-risk (15% leg) (44→49%) +0.7; commodity-stress (20% leg) (30→31%) +0.4.
Projection watch
- WCGF projected 1.6 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WGRI projected 72.8 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending up.
- WARI projected 36.0 in 14d (80% band 0–95), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 56.8 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 8.7 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 49.6 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 50.2 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 17.0 | — | Very low |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 25.1 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 48.8 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 52.8 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 18.0 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 31.4 | — | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 79.7 | — | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 54.0 | — | Moderate |
| WWRI | World Risk | 40.6 | -0.6 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 20.0 | +0.8 | Low |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 37.2 | -3.6 | Low |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.