WNEW2

W.E.T. Inverse New England Football Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
Governed close level
1071.8128
base 1000 · chained · since 2026-08-14
Gauge
61.37
0–100 · rung 6
Divisor
5.7261e-4
what chains this level to the last
Closes
53
latest 2026-11-14
The opposing reading

new-england-football-inside-six-months reads 38.63 against this index’s 61.37. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
10 of 10 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The board stops listing markets that name New England's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A New England club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (9)
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 16. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4295, keyword-miss 12211, horizon-outside-window 8.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 8 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 12211 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • 4295 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
  • eligibility: 6 of 16 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: spread-too-wide 3, price-below-floor 2, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 5 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. 5 of 5 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
  • the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 10 prior member(s), of which 6 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 6 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.037434975 against a gauge basis of 0.613726171; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
  • the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-11-05, 1 close(s) ago, and 1 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 10-member composition of 2026-11-05 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 5ffa953b3ee43159 · methodology a693bdd8d3d28308 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing

61.37No 1d changeElevated & cooling, volatile

As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)

The same markets naming New England Patriots, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

Basket level · official print13 held · close 2026-11-14
1030.31+3.03%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
1030.31
Since inception
+3.03%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
53.8% of 13
1 day
+0.37%
7 day
+3.73%
Markets held
13
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
48.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
55

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 13 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 92c95c+3.8%↗
  • Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East?polymarket · NO · entry 61c90c+47.9%↗
  • Will the New England Patriots make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · NO · entry 36c37c+0.7%↗
  • Will the Bills win the season series against the Patriots during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 67c16 sessions stale50c−26.1%↗
  • Will the Patriots win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 79c2 sessions stale68c−14.6%↗
  • Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91c87c−4.2%↗
  • Will the Patriots win the season series against the Jets during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 44c15 sessions stale65c+48.3%↗
  • 2027 Pro Football Champion — New Englandgemini · NO · entry 96c15 sessions stale98c+2.1%↗
  • AFC Championship Winner — New Englandgemini · NO · entry 91c15 sessions stale94c+3.9%↗
  • Will the Patriots win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 33c39c+18.2%↗
  • Will New England Patriots finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?polymarket · NO · entry 95c96c+0.9%↗
  • Will the season series between the Patriots and Jets end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 67c15 sessions stale60c−11.2%↗
  • Will the season series between the Dolphins and Patriots end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 69c71c+2.9%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

The opposing claim

the same roster, read the other way — one close, two series

This index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.

Read the opposite side →
Pair drift
-66.08index points, both sides combined

Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1933.92 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.

Friction gauge Φ 1.91 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.

Key statistics

Previous
—
Band
Elevated
22d Range
6178
Percentile
5th
9d Change
−5.2
Volatility
5.4 pts/d
Streak
4d down
Markets
10
Effective N
7.2
Top Weight
15%
Venues
10 P
Method
v1

Indicative tape · 6 sessions

97 hourly readings since 2026-11-04 · not the governed close
60.062.064.066.068.070.072.074.076.078.010-22 00:0011-03 03:0011-15 05:00
Latest
61.55
Since 2026-11-04
−5.66
Range
60.5–76.7
Readings
70+27 refused

INDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.

Daily close

22d published · interactive

22 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 68 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 22d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
20406080100now61
Projected 14d
60.80
Change
−0.60
80% band
28–93
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 22 readings, slope -0.09/day, projection σ 6.8 pts/d widened for a 22-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

W.E.T. analysis — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

Checking access…

What moved today

attribution — Insiders
🔒

Insiders

Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

WNEW2 · at a glance

What it is
The same markets naming New England Patriots, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how new-england-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse New England Football Index 6mo (WNEW2) prints a WET Index Score of 61.4/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.