W.E.T. Kansas City Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingkansas-city-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads 62.86 against this index’s 37.14. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Kansas City's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Kansas City club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (12)
- 6 of 6 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.166667. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 6 constituents (cap·n = 0.9000 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 11. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4295, keyword-miss 12220, horizon-outside-window 4. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 4 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12220 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4295 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 5 of 11 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 2, below-min-volume 2, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 6 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 6 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 9 prior member(s), of which 3 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 3 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 0.962846845 against a gauge basis of 0.371416667; the divisor moved to absorb the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
- the divisor this level chains from was struck on 2026-11-05, 1 close(s) ago, and 1 of those close(s) published no level at all. The chain is therefore measured against the 9-member composition of 2026-11-05 rather than against yesterday. A gap this shape is what a permanently refused level looks like from the outside, so it is published rather than left for a reader to infer from a hole in the chart.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 8428f180e79441ac · methodology 9515cdd4d2f6bb06 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
6 sports markets naming Kansas City Chiefs, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1101.43
- Since inception
- +10.14%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 18.2% of 11
- 1 day
- −0.10%
- 7 day
- −7.80%
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 45.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the season series between the Broncos and Chiefs end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 48c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES48c38c−20.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c13c+31.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?polymarket · YES · entry 33c2.0¢ spread · 24.6k/29.3k within 5¢polymarketYES33c42c+29.2%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Chiefs win the season series against the Raiders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 57c11 sessions stalepolymarketYES57c64c+11.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Broncos win the season series against the Chiefs during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 25c31 sessions stalepolymarketYES25c24c−2.0%11.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2027 Pro Football Champion — Kansas Citygemini · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stalegeminiYES6c10c+72.7%10.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the season series between the Chiefs and Chargers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 52c2 sessions stalepolymarketYES52c40c−22.3%7.5%Polymarket ↗
- AFC Championship Winner — Kansas Citygemini · YES · entry 12c15 sessions stalegeminiYES12c17c+41.7%6.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Chiefs win the season series against the Broncos during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 28c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c59c+105.3%3.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Raiders win the season series against the Chiefs during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 14c16 sessions stalepolymarketYES14c33c+127.9%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Chiefs and Raiders end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 26c11 sessions stalepolymarketYES26c54c+109.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2139.39 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 2.18 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 41d Range
- 2448
- Percentile
- 73th
- 9d Change
- +2.6
- Volatility
- 4.0 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 6
- Effective N
- 6.0
- Top Weight
- 17%
- Venues
- 6 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-10-22 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
41d published · interactive41 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 52 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 41d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 41 readings, slope +0.15/day, projection σ 4.5 pts/d widened for a 41-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 6 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWKANS · at a glance
- What it is
- 6 sports markets naming Kansas City Chiefs, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how kansas-city-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Kansas City Football Index 6mo (WKANS) prints a WET Index Score of 37.1/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.